本文選題：政策不確定性 + 企業(yè)出口行為��； 參考：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：后金融危機(jī)時(shí)代以來,我國出口增速在2010年和2011年分別出現(xiàn)31%和22%的短暫“V”型反彈后,自2012年開始,出口增速逐年下滑,2012年至2014年出口增速分別為7.9%、7.8%和6%,且在2015年出現(xiàn)1.8%的負(fù)增長(zhǎng),2016年上半年貨物貿(mào)易出口同期下降2.1%。同時(shí),作為我國主要出口市場(chǎng)的發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇態(tài)勢(shì)穩(wěn)固向前,出現(xiàn)需求端的良好態(tài)勢(shì)與我國出口增速放緩并行的現(xiàn)象。我國作為貿(mào)易大國,出口貿(mào)易一直是推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要引擎之一,出口增速放緩甚至出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)將會(huì)嚴(yán)重影響我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),在這樣的背景下,我們認(rèn)為有必要對(duì)需求端的良好態(tài)勢(shì)與我國出口增速放緩并行的現(xiàn)象成因進(jìn)行研究。反觀國內(nèi),我國政府為應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)推出了“4萬億人民幣經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃”及相應(yīng)配套措施、“降準(zhǔn)降息”“工業(yè)2.5”以及“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+”一系列宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策,這些政策一方面在短期內(nèi)有效降低了危機(jī)對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來的負(fù)面沖擊,另一方面也加劇了我國的政策不確定性。事實(shí)上,企業(yè)對(duì)于宏觀政策的變化具有較高的敏感度,企業(yè)高管已經(jīng)把國家宏觀政策作為公司發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的重要考量之一1。較高的不確定性將產(chǎn)生較大的等待期權(quán)價(jià)值,此時(shí)企業(yè)會(huì)延時(shí)投資和雇傭勞動(dòng)力,利率、工資和價(jià)格的下降對(duì)減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑只能起到有限的短期效應(yīng),意味著宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策干預(yù)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)只能產(chǎn)生較小1 2013年中歐國際工商學(xué)院對(duì)中外企業(yè)1214位高管的問卷調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示,約46%的本土企業(yè)高管將“宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策”作為其主要顧慮,外企中這一比例達(dá)到37%。的影響(Bloom,2009;Carriere-Swallow and Cespedes,2013)。故本文將研究視角從代表需求側(cè)的出口市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)移至代表供給側(cè)的國內(nèi)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境,提出在出口市場(chǎng)需求穩(wěn)中有升的情況下,國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性的增加是導(dǎo)致出口增速連年放緩的重要原因之一。本文在異質(zhì)性企業(yè)理論框架下構(gòu)建理論模型,得出核心理論假設(shè):出口國政策不確定性增加將導(dǎo)致企業(yè)出口參與和出口量均下降。之后,本文使用中國工業(yè)企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)庫中微觀企業(yè)樣本和地市級(jí)市委書記更替數(shù)據(jù)分別對(duì)企業(yè)出口狀況和政策不確定性進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析。在理論模型和現(xiàn)狀分析的基礎(chǔ)上,本文使用中國工業(yè)企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)庫中2001-2007年非平衡面板數(shù)據(jù)與中國人民共和國地市級(jí)黨委書記數(shù)據(jù)庫的匹配數(shù)據(jù)建立Heckman選擇模型實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)了理論假設(shè),得到與理論假設(shè)一致的穩(wěn)健性結(jié)果。本文最后在研究結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上提出相關(guān)對(duì)策建議,以期為企業(yè)出口保持穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)提供一定的政策參考依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Since the post-financial crisis era, China's export growth rate in 2010 and 2011 after a brief "V" type rebound of 31% and 22% respectively, since 2012, Export growth slowed year by year, rising by 7.9 percent and 6 percent from 2012 to 2014, with a negative growth of 1.8 percent in 2015. Exports of goods fell 2.1 percent in the same period in the first half of 2016. At the same time, as the main export market of our country, the economic recovery of the developed economies is firmly forward, and the good situation on the demand side is parallel to the slowdown of the export growth rate of our country. As a big trading country, China's export trade has always been one of the important engines to promote economic development. A slowdown in export growth or even a negative growth rate will seriously affect China's economic growth. We think it is necessary to study the causes of the phenomenon that the good situation on the demand side and the slowing export growth rate in China. On the other hand, in order to cope with the crisis, the Chinese government has put forward a "4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan" and its corresponding supporting measures, "reducing interest rates," "industry 2.5" and "the Internet" a series of macroeconomic policies. These policies, on the one hand, effectively reduce the negative impact of the crisis on China's economy in the short term, on the other hand, aggravate the uncertainty of China's policies. In fact, companies are highly sensitive to changes in macro policy, and executives have made national macro policy one of the most important considerations in the company's development strategy. Higher uncertainty creates greater value of waiting options, when firms delay investing and hiring labor, interest rates, wages, and price declines that have only a limited short-term effect on slowing the economic downturn. This means that macroeconomic policy intervention in the real economy can only produce a smaller one. According to a survey of 1214 senior executives of Chinese and foreign enterprises conducted by CEIBS in 2013, about 46 percent of local executives consider "macroeconomic policy" as their main concern. This proportion of foreign enterprises reached 37. Effect of Bloom 2009 Carriere-Shop and Caval Swallow. Therefore, this paper shifts the research perspective from a demand-side export market to a supply-side domestic macroeconomic environment, and puts forward that if the export market demand is rising steadily, An increase in uncertainty about domestic economic policy is one of the main reasons for the slowdown in export growth over the years. In this paper, a theoretical model is constructed under the framework of heterogeneous firm theory, and the core theoretical hypothesis is obtained: the increase of policy uncertainty in exporting countries will lead to the decrease of both export participation and export volume. After that, this paper makes statistical analysis on the export status and policy uncertainty of enterprises by using the sample of micro enterprises in the database of China's industrial enterprises and the data of the replacement of municipal party committee secretaries at the prefectural and municipal levels. On the basis of theoretical model and current situation analysis, Using the matching data of non-equilibrium panel data from 2001 to 2007 in the database of China's industrial enterprises and the database of party secretaries of the people's Republic of China, this paper establishes a Heckman selection model to empirically test the theoretical hypothesis. A robust result consistent with the theoretical hypothesis is obtained. At the end of this paper, some suggestions are put forward on the basis of the conclusion of the research, in order to provide a certain policy reference for the firm to maintain the steady growth of export.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F752.62

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