本文選題：貿(mào)易 + 貿(mào)易協(xié)定��； 參考：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：在過去的一個(gè)多世紀(jì),在科技和商業(yè)方面都發(fā)生了很大的變化與發(fā)展。有很多的大事件發(fā)生,經(jīng)歷了這些變革,今天的世界也因此發(fā)生了很大的變化,特別是在經(jīng)濟(jì)方面尤其突出。1978年,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)改革成為社會(huì)主義市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)之后,經(jīng)濟(jì)的力量轉(zhuǎn)移到了東方的世界。中國的購買力平價(jià)和名義國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(nominal GDP),分別位列世界第一和世界第二。中國目前是世界上的出口和進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品的中心,大部分的在地圖上的國家都跟中國有貿(mào)易往來。由于開放的國家政策,其他世界國家的商人可以自由來往中國,投資各種個(gè)樣的業(yè)務(wù)。由此可以拓寬他們?cè)谥袊氖袌?chǎng),這促使了在中國的交易和投資的增長。中國在2001年成為世界貿(mào)易組織(WTO)的成員之時(shí),轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)就開始了。成為了世貿(mào)組織的成員之后,中國作為免費(fèi)的車手,受益于世界經(jīng)濟(jì)。中國在開始了在農(nóng)業(yè),工業(yè)和服務(wù)部門開放的自由貿(mào)易。此外,中國也開放了國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì),以鼓勵(lì)其他國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。中泰貿(mào)易已經(jīng)過了一百多年,中泰之間的貿(mào)易流量達(dá)百萬美元以上。在Sukhothai王朝之前,為了保持中泰關(guān)系,中國和泰國常�；ハ喟菰L和讓他們的大使去另一國家,實(shí)現(xiàn)互相的來往。后來,在Rattanakosin王朝的時(shí)候,中國是泰國的一個(gè)大貿(mào)易伙伴。直到今天,這個(gè)貿(mào)易也沒停止也沒減少,中國和泰國現(xiàn)在好像已經(jīng)變成了一家人。他們不但進(jìn)行產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易,而且進(jìn)行文化交流。本世紀(jì)中,技術(shù)和工商有很大發(fā)展和進(jìn)步。毫無疑問,中泰貿(mào)易還將繼續(xù)下去。他們的流量每年都在以前所未有的速度增長。雙邊貿(mào)易問題也日益浮現(xiàn)出來。所以,這個(gè)論文要分析什么因素影響中泰貿(mào)易。為了填補(bǔ)以前的學(xué)習(xí)空白,首先這個(gè)學(xué)習(xí)要介紹在不同時(shí)期泰國和中國有什么很好的關(guān)系,學(xué)習(xí)現(xiàn)有的對(duì)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)和因素作用。然后,學(xué)習(xí)和了解各個(gè)因素有什么好什么不好的地方也看看中泰之間的不同貿(mào)易方式。論文最后是選擇因素研究。從之前的論文研究發(fā)現(xiàn)各種各樣的影響貿(mào)易的因素。大部分的論文是在研究經(jīng)濟(jì)因素,也有的研究非經(jīng)濟(jì)性的因素。本篇論文是從貿(mào)易協(xié)定,匯率,和稅率出發(fā),研究影響雙邊貿(mào)易的非經(jīng)濟(jì)因素。本研究只用到了一個(gè)貿(mào)易協(xié)定就是中國-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)(CAFTA)。本研究搜集了從1992年到2015年總共24年的數(shù)據(jù)作為參考。為了做統(tǒng)計(jì),這個(gè)研究的數(shù)據(jù)從互聯(lián)網(wǎng)取得,中泰兩國匯率之間取平均匯率(每個(gè)年的平均),泰國從中國進(jìn)口的流量,泰國到中國出口的流量,泰國對(duì)進(jìn)口中國的商品征稅,中國對(duì)泰國的商品征稅,和貿(mào)易協(xié)定(CAFTA)動(dòng)用的時(shí)候。進(jìn)口和出口的商品被分為20類行業(yè),他們有資本商品行業(yè),中間產(chǎn)品行業(yè),消費(fèi)品行業(yè),紡織品行業(yè),金屬制品行業(yè),化學(xué)品行業(yè),原料品行業(yè),機(jī)械電子品行業(yè),雜品行業(yè),橡膠和塑料制品行業(yè),燃料油成品行業(yè),蔬菜品行業(yè),食品產(chǎn)品行業(yè),皮張產(chǎn)品行業(yè),石頭和玻璃產(chǎn)品行業(yè),礦產(chǎn)行業(yè),木材產(chǎn)品行業(yè),鞋業(yè)產(chǎn)品行業(yè),動(dòng)物產(chǎn)品行業(yè),和輸運(yùn)產(chǎn)品行業(yè)。最后用線性回歸與以上的數(shù)據(jù)回答問題,研究和討論是什么因素對(duì)中泰貿(mào)易有影響。匯率平均用每年的匯率平均,稅率用最惠國稅率,這種關(guān)稅是世貿(mào)組織成員的收費(fèi)率,除了他們有貿(mào)易協(xié)定之外。簡而言之,這個(gè)比率必須是一個(gè)會(huì)員向另一個(gè)會(huì)員收取的最高費(fèi)用。所以哪個(gè)國家不是世貿(mào)組織的會(huì)員可能被收費(fèi)更高也可以收費(fèi)更便宜,有兩國之間有沒有什么貿(mào)易協(xié)定的情況決定。此論文的大部分的數(shù)據(jù)從World Integrated Trade Solution網(wǎng)站收集。本論文的研究方法,收集的全部的數(shù)據(jù),這些數(shù)據(jù)算是原始數(shù)據(jù)。所以,先把它們放在Microsoft Excel準(zhǔn)備數(shù)據(jù).數(shù)據(jù)處理包含兩個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)集。第一個(gè)是進(jìn)口的流量,第二個(gè)是出口的流量。然后把這兩個(gè)excel的文件進(jìn)行STATA軟件里。最后,選擇線性回歸模特方式分析數(shù)據(jù)。因此,本研究能完成探究式什么因素進(jìn)口還是出口經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生了影響。本研究假設(shè)四個(gè)因素都對(duì)中泰貿(mào)易有影響,因此這里我們給出五個(gè)假設(shè)。第一假設(shè):貿(mào)易協(xié)定對(duì)中泰貿(mào)易有正影響,第二假設(shè):匯率對(duì)中泰貿(mào)易有正影響,第三假設(shè):稅率對(duì)中泰貿(mào)易有正影響,兩個(gè)因素對(duì)這雙邊貿(mào)易有正影響,就是貿(mào)易協(xié)定和稅率,別的因素對(duì)中泰貿(mào)易沒有什么影響。結(jié)果可以這樣來闡述:貿(mào)易協(xié)定:由于它是有重要意義的,這個(gè)因素必然對(duì)貿(mào)易有正影響。它的p-value等于0.00意思是它對(duì)貿(mào)易的影響太重了,因?yàn)樗鼘?duì)進(jìn)口和出口的流量有很大影響。據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)結(jié)果,中國-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)被使用后,進(jìn)口和出口的流量便很大程度上由穩(wěn)定增加進(jìn)入峭立增加。很顯然,貿(mào)易協(xié)定設(shè)計(jì)了一種適合于增長市場(chǎng)區(qū)域的機(jī)制,在貿(mào)易協(xié)定使用之后,給市場(chǎng)起到了積極的影響。這是由于稅率在很大程度上被降低或者豁免了,所以在這樣的條件下,所有的新生商為了勘探新市場(chǎng)而努力輸出自己的產(chǎn)品。與此同時(shí),舊的在位者利用了免稅率的機(jī)會(huì)來掙錢。稅率:它也對(duì)這貿(mào)易也有正影響,p-value也跟貿(mào)易協(xié)定一樣,等于0.00都進(jìn)口和出口的流量,所以他也有很重大的影響。因?yàn)閲獾纳唐酚锌赡鼙葒鴥?nèi)產(chǎn)品便宜,為保護(hù)國內(nèi)的商業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng),對(duì)國外的商品征收稅款是制定稅率的目標(biāo)。統(tǒng)計(jì)資料表明,當(dāng)沒有征稅之后,圖表上的數(shù)據(jù)是完全不一樣。2010以前,在有中國-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的時(shí)候,圖表顯示的狀況是屬于正常上升的。但是有中國-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)后,它呈現(xiàn)出了陡增的趨勢(shì)。這些數(shù)據(jù)都說明了稅率確實(shí)對(duì)雙邊貿(mào)易有著正向的影響。匯率:不意稅率對(duì)雙邊貿(mào)易進(jìn)口和出口的流量是沒有意義的。對(duì)于這個(gè)結(jié)果,存在著幾種合乎情理的解釋。第一合乎情理是時(shí)間,因?yàn)檫@個(gè)研究用了24年的數(shù)據(jù),就是長時(shí)間,所以可以說稅率對(duì)貿(mào)易很少或者沒有影響到進(jìn)口和出口的流量。其次合乎情理是因?yàn)橹袊恼刂贫惵仕运兓姆炔淮蟆Ｋ运鼘?duì)貿(mào)易的流量沒有顯著性的影響。這個(gè)論文的目是為了了解哪些因素對(duì)中泰這兩個(gè)交往歷史悠久的國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)有正向的影響。對(duì)以上每個(gè)因素的研究和討論,發(fā)現(xiàn)它們或多或少對(duì)提高和改善兩個(gè)國家的關(guān)系都有積極或者沒有太大的影響,可以把上述討論小結(jié)如下。1)中國-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)對(duì)貿(mào)易的發(fā)展有特別大的正影響。在有CAFTA后比沒有CAFTA時(shí),貿(mào)易的流量急劇的上升。2)另外,稅率可以作為很好的貿(mào)易壁壘,他是軌跡貿(mào)易的阻礙。沒有稅率的時(shí)候,貿(mào)易的流量增加是很有意義的。3)中泰得匯率變少根本對(duì)貿(mào)易沒有什么影響。另一方便,正常,消費(fèi)者的需求對(duì)貿(mào)易有關(guān)系。數(shù)字現(xiàn)成,數(shù)字質(zhì)量,單獨(dú)變數(shù)這三個(gè)因素的選擇造成了本研究有些局限性。對(duì)于數(shù)字現(xiàn)成,匯集貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)能從三個(gè)地方取得,每個(gè)國家的公用材料和第三方數(shù)據(jù)記錄。每個(gè)國家的記錄在網(wǎng)上可能不總是公開的,使用第三者的數(shù)據(jù)應(yīng)該注意數(shù)據(jù)的正確性和準(zhǔn)確性。使用的資料眾多,所以數(shù)據(jù)來源可能發(fā)生不一致性。還有CAFTA被實(shí)施后的數(shù)據(jù)算是將來的數(shù)據(jù)。而貿(mào)易協(xié)定和稅率這種類型的變量,現(xiàn)在無法分析它們的持續(xù)性的影響。如上所述,數(shù)據(jù)不應(yīng)來自多個(gè)來源,以避免不一致;然而,從一個(gè)來源獲取所有數(shù)據(jù)并不能保證數(shù)據(jù)的完整性和準(zhǔn)確性。在整個(gè)研究中,大約10%的數(shù)據(jù)集是不完整的。在理想情況下,即將使用統(tǒng)計(jì)模型分析的數(shù)據(jù)應(yīng)該是完全干凈的。實(shí)際上,當(dāng)有數(shù)據(jù)丟失的時(shí)候,必須進(jìn)行內(nèi)插或使用統(tǒng)計(jì)量測(cè)量,如平均值來填補(bǔ)缺失的部分。在分析軟件的結(jié)果時(shí),要考慮到結(jié)果可能并不總是100%準(zhǔn)確。對(duì)于未來的研究,為了比較每個(gè)貿(mào)易協(xié)議的有效性,填補(bǔ)本研究課題的空白并且簽訂更多的貿(mào)易協(xié)定將是十分有利的。從年度到季度或每月來更多的細(xì)節(jié),可以比較它們?cè)陂L期和短期之間的差異是如何不同的。處理像文化這樣不明確的變量,應(yīng)該采用更為具體的措施,例如兩國的歷史背景。最好是通過使用統(tǒng)計(jì)模型并在嘗試分析時(shí)避免這種變量�？赡艿难芯克枷胧�,促進(jìn)西方與東方國家之間的貿(mào)易的不同因素,貿(mào)易是改善國家文化轉(zhuǎn)型的因素,以及它在以后有何幫助等論文的結(jié)果該對(duì)政府有好處因?yàn)樗麄冊(cè)撝缿?yīng)該公布什么政策增加還是減少中泰貿(mào)易的流量。另外,這個(gè)論文也包括文化因素以及它是否對(duì)這個(gè)貿(mào)易有正影響,同時(shí)也可對(duì)泰國和別的國家貿(mào)易有借鑒作用。最后,本研究對(duì)于那些對(duì)跨國貿(mào)易有著興趣的人有一定的借鑒作用。
[Abstract]:In the past more than a century, great changes and developments have taken place in science and technology and commerce. Many big events have taken place, and these changes have undergone great changes in the world today, especially in the economic aspect, especially in.1978 years. After China's economic reform became a socialist market economy, it was economic. Power is transferred to the eastern world. China's purchasing power parity and nominal gross domestic product (nominal GDP) are ranked first in the world and second in the world. China is now the center of exports and imports in the world, and most of the countries on the map have trade contacts with China. Chinese businessmen are free to go to China and invest in various kinds of business. Thus, they can widen their market in China, which has contributed to the growth of trade and investment in China. When China became a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, the turning point began. After becoming a member of the WTO, China was free. China is opening up free trade in agricultural, industrial and service sectors. China has also opened its domestic economy to encourage economic development in other countries. China and Thailand trade has been over more than 100 years, and the trade flow between China and Thailand is more than a million dollars. Before the Sukhothai Dynasty, to ensure that With China and Thailand relations, China and Thailand often visit each other and let their ambassadors go to another country to achieve each other. Then, at the time of the Rattanakosin Dynasty, China was a big trading partner in Thailand. Until today, the trade has not stopped and has not been reduced. China and Thailand now seem to have become a family. They do not. There is no doubt that Sino Thai trade will continue. Their flow is growing at an unprecedented rate every year. The bilateral trade problem is emerging. So, this paper is to analyze what factors affect China and Thailand trade. In order to fill the previous learning gap, first of all, this study is to introduce a good relationship between Thailand and China at different times, to learn the existing related literature and factors. Then, to learn and understand what is not good for each factor and to see the different ways of trade between China and Thailand. Finally, the thesis is the choice. A variety of factors affecting trade are found in the previous paper. Most of the papers are in the study of economic factors and some of the non economic factors. This paper studies the non economic factors that affect bilateral trade from trade agreements, exchange rates, and tax rates. This study is only used in a trade agreement. This is the China ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA). This study collected data from 1992 to 2015 for a total of 24 years. In order to make statistics, the data obtained from the Internet, the average exchange rate between China and Thailand (the average of each year), the flow of Thailand from China, the flow of Thailand to China, Thailand, The import and export of goods in China are taxed, China's goods are taxed in Thailand, and the trade agreement (CAFTA) is used. Imports and exports are divided into 20 categories. They have capital commodities, intermediate products, consumer goods, textiles, metal products, chemicals, raw materials, machinery and electronic products. Product industry, rubber and plastic products industry, fuel oil product industry, vegetable product industry, food product industry, leather product industry, stone and glass product industry, mineral industry, wood product industry, shoe industry, animal product industry, and transportation product industry. Finally, use linear regression and above data to answer questions, research and discuss What is the factor that has an impact on the Sino Thai trade. The average exchange rate uses the average annual exchange rate and the MFN rate, which is the rate of the WTO members, except for their trade agreements. In short, the rate must be the highest fee charged by a member to another member. So which country is not the world's world. The members of the organization may be charged higher or cheaper, and there are no trade agreements between the two countries. Most of the data in this paper is collected from the World Integrated Trade Solution website. Put the data in Microsoft Excel. The data processing includes two data sets. The first is the import flow, the second is the export flow. Then the two Excel files are carried out in the STATA software. Finally, the linear regression model is selected to analyze the data. Therefore, this study can be completed into an inquiry into what factors import or export economy. This study assumes that four factors have an impact on China and Thailand trade, so here we give five hypotheses. First hypothesis: the trade agreement has a positive impact on China and Thailand trade, second hypothesis: the exchange rate has a positive impact on China and Thailand trade, and the third hypothesis: the tax rate has a positive impact on China and Thailand trade, and the two factors have positive impact on the bilateral trade, It is trade agreements and tax rates, and other factors have little impact on China and Thailand trade. The result can be explained as follows: Trade Agreements: because it is important, this factor is bound to have a positive impact on trade. Its p-value equals 0 meaning that its impact on trade is too heavy because it has a large shadow of the flow of imports and exports. After the use of the China ASEAN Free Trade Area, the flow of import and export has greatly increased from stable to steep increase. It is clear that the trade agreement has designed a mechanism suitable for the growth of the market region, which has had a positive impact on the market after the use of the trade agreements. This is due to the tax rate is very high. It is largely reduced or exempted, so under such conditions, all the new producers try to export their products in order to explore new markets. At the same time, the old incumbent used the opportunity of tax exemption to make money. Tax rate: it also has a positive impact on this trade, and p-value, like trade agreements, is equal to 0 imports and exports. The flow of the mouth, so he also has a significant impact. Because foreign goods may be cheaper than domestic products, in order to protect domestic commercial competition, the tax collection of foreign goods is the goal of making tax rates. Statistics show that, when no tax is taxed, the figures on the chart are completely different before.2010, in the presence of China ASEAN freedom. At the time of the trade zone, the chart shows a normal rise. But after the China ASEAN Free Trade Area, it shows a steep increase. These figures show that the tax rate does have a positive impact on bilateral trade. Exchange rate: the rate of disintent is meaningless to the flow of bilateral trade intake and exports. As a result, there are several reasonable explanations. The first reason is time, because the study used 24 years of data for a long time, so it can be said that the tax rate has little or no impact on the flow of imports and exports. Secondly, it is reasonable because the government controls tax rates in China so it does not change much. It has no significant impact on the flow of trade. The aim of the paper is to understand which factors have a positive impact on the economic activities of the two countries with long history in China and Thailand. The research and discussion of each of the above factors found that they are more or less positive or less on the relationship between improving and improving the two countries. With too much influence, the above discussion can be summed up as the following.1) China ASEAN Free Trade Zone has a special positive impact on trade development. In the case of CAFTA, the flow of trade increases sharply when compared to without CAFTA, and the tax rate can be a good trade barrier. He is a hindrance of the trajectory trade. When there is no tax rate, trade is not. The increase in flow rate is a very meaningful.3) China and Thailand have little effect on trade. Another convenient, normal, consumer demand is related to trade. The choice of three factors, digital ready-made, digital quality, individual variable, has caused some limitations in this study. For digital ready-made, the collection of trade data can be taken from three places. Each country's public materials and third party data records are recorded. The records of each country may not always be published on the Internet. The data using the third should pay attention to the correctness and accuracy of the data. There is a large number of data used, so the data sources may be incompatible. And the data after the CAFTA is implemented is the future data. The variables such as trade agreements and tax rates are now unable to analyze their persistence. As mentioned above, the data should not come from multiple sources to avoid inconsistencies; however, obtaining all data from one source does not guarantee the integrity and accuracy of the data. In the whole study, about 10% of the data sets are incomplete. In the ideal case, the data that is to be analyzed using the statistical model should be completely clean. In fact, when there is a loss of data, it is necessary to insert or use statistics, such as the average to fill the missing part. In the analysis of the results of the software, it is necessary to take into account that the result may not always be 100% accurate. For future research, In order to compare the effectiveness of each trade agreement, filling the gap in this research topic and signing more trade agreements will be very beneficial. More details from the annual to quarterly or monthly can compare their differences between the long and short term. For specific measures, such as the historical background of the two countries, it is best to avoid such variables by using statistical models and trying to analyze them. Possible research ideas are different factors to promote trade between the West and the eastern countries, trade is the factor to improve the transformation of the national culture, and the results of what it will have in the future. It is good for the government because they know what policy to increase or reduce the flow of trade between China and Thailand. In addition, the paper also includes cultural factors and whether it has a positive impact on the trade, but also can be used for reference to trade in Thailand and other countries. Finally, this study is interested in those who are interested in transnational trade. People have a certain reference.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F752.7;F753.36

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