本文選題：人民幣匯率 + 中美貨物貿(mào)易　； 參考：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著中美貨物貿(mào)易逆差的不斷增大、國際市場的蕭條以及貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義的發(fā)展,中美貨物貿(mào)易在總量迅速增長的同時,也面臨著貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)不平衡以及逆差額不斷增大等問題。多國認(rèn)為人民幣匯率是引發(fā)中美貨物貿(mào)易問題的導(dǎo)火索,由此引發(fā)爭論不斷。人民幣是否會對中美貨物貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生影響且其作用程度是個值得關(guān)注的問題,因此本文對此進(jìn)行深入的研究。人民幣匯率波動的影響涉及多方面,多種因素相互作用同時對貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生影響。綜合考慮相關(guān)理論及研究,本文從局部均衡的角度出發(fā),選取了人民幣匯率水平、人民幣匯率波動率、貿(mào)易對方工業(yè)增加值以及匯率改革四個變量作為自變量,建立ARDL模型以及相應(yīng)的ECM模型,并從貿(mào)易總額以及分產(chǎn)業(yè)貿(mào)易額的水平研究人民幣水平和垂直波動對中美貨物貿(mào)易的影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),貿(mào)易伙伴經(jīng)濟(jì)增長可以很大程度的促進(jìn)中美貨物貿(mào)易總額以及分產(chǎn)業(yè)貿(mào)易額的發(fā)展。人民幣升值可以在長期內(nèi)顯著地抑制中美貨物貿(mào)易出口,且其抑制效應(yīng)同樣作用于短期及滯后期;對進(jìn)口在長期內(nèi)具有較小的促進(jìn)作用而在短期及滯后期內(nèi)影響為負(fù);從分產(chǎn)業(yè)看,人民幣升值更傾向于對初級產(chǎn)品以及初級加工產(chǎn)業(yè)具有顯著的抑制作用,而對高附加值的消極影響較小,可以很好地推動改善中美貨物貿(mào)易的結(jié)構(gòu)。人民幣垂直波動在整體上對中美貨物貿(mào)易的作用效果不顯著,但是從分產(chǎn)業(yè)來看,在短期及其滯后期內(nèi)波動率增大可以對低端制造產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)生抑制效應(yīng)。匯率改革可以非常小程度地促進(jìn)中美貨物貿(mào)易總量差額的增大;從分產(chǎn)業(yè)看,其在長期中傾向于加劇中美間初級產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的不平衡,而在短期內(nèi)傾向于改善中美間初級加工產(chǎn)品的不平衡狀況�；谝陨戏治鼋Y(jié)果可以發(fā)現(xiàn),人民幣水平和垂直波動均可以對中美貨物貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)有所改善,雖然匯改會小幅度的加劇兩國間的貿(mào)易差額,但不會導(dǎo)致其如此快速度的增長,要根本的解決問題還需從產(chǎn)生中美貨物貿(mào)易大量差額的真正原因入手。
[Abstract]:With the unceasing increase of Sino-American trade deficit in goods, the depression of international market and the development of trade protectionism, Sino-US goods trade is facing the problems of unbalanced trade structure and increasing reverse balance while the total amount of goods trade is increasing rapidly.Many countries see the yuan as a trigger for trade in goods between China and the United States, sparking controversy.Whether or not the RMB will have an impact on Sino-US trade in goods and the extent of its effect is a matter of concern, so this paper makes an in-depth study of this issue.The impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation involves many aspects, and the interaction of many factors has an impact on trade.Considering the relevant theory and research, this paper selects the RMB exchange rate level, the RMB exchange rate volatility, the industrial added value of the other side of the trade and the exchange rate reform as independent variables from the angle of partial equilibrium.The ARDL model and the corresponding ECM model are established, and the effects of RMB horizontal and vertical fluctuations on Sino-US goods trade are studied from the level of total trade volume and sub-industry trade volume.It is found that the economic growth of trading partners can greatly promote the development of Sino-American total trade in goods and the volume of trade in different industries.RMB appreciation can significantly restrain Sino-American goods trade export in the long term, and its inhibitory effect is similar to that of short-term and lag period, and it has a small promoting effect on imports in the long term, but negative effect in short and late period of time, while in the long term, RMB revaluation can significantly inhibit the export of goods between China and the United States.From the point of view of industry, the appreciation of RMB tends to restrain the primary products and the primary processing industry, but has little negative effect on the high value-added, which can promote the improvement of the structure of Sino-US trade in goods.The vertical fluctuation of RMB has little effect on Sino-US goods trade, but the increase of volatility in the short term and lag period can restrain the low end manufacturing industry.Exchange rate reform can to a very small extent contribute to the increase of the total trade gap in goods between China and the United States; in the long run, it tends to aggravate the imbalance in the trade in primary commodities between China and the United States.In the short term, there is a tendency to improve the imbalance of primary processed products between China and the United States.Based on the above analysis results, it can be found that both the horizontal and vertical fluctuations of the RMB can improve the structure of Sino-US trade in goods. Although the Exchange Reform Commission will increase the trade balance between the two countries by a small margin, it will not lead to such a rapid growth.In order to solve the problem, we must start with the real cause of the large difference in goods trade between China and the United States.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752.7;F757.12;F832.6

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