本文選題：出口潛力　切入點：潛力拓展型　出處：《河北大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：中國經(jīng)濟自2012年以來,在國際市場需求結(jié)構(gòu)的變化以及供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性失衡問題的雙重壓力下,進入了中高速發(fā)展的“新常態(tài)”,在此背景下,出口總額雖然仍居世界第一,但是增長動力明顯不足。2015年中國出口出現(xiàn)了-2.58%的增長,并且傳統(tǒng)勞動密集型商品出口比較優(yōu)勢也在逐漸減弱。因此,對中國的出口潛力進行測算,并對影響因素進行分析,具有十分重要的現(xiàn)實意義。本文以中國出口潛力及影響因素為研究主題,一是,在對國內(nèi)外出口潛力及影響因素相關文獻研究的基礎上,用中國2001-2015年間的出口數(shù)據(jù),從總量、市場結(jié)構(gòu)、出口依存度等方面進行了分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)中國出口一直存在依存度高、市場區(qū)位分布集中等問題。結(jié)合顯示性優(yōu)勢指數(shù)分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)中國在后危機時代存在出口增長乏力、出口要素稟賦優(yōu)勢逐漸弱化等問題。二是,針對上述的分析結(jié)果,選取了2008-2015年的面板數(shù)據(jù),以引力模型為實證分析工具,在人民幣不斷升值和針對中國的貿(mào)易保護主義重新抬頭的基礎上添加了匯率和APEC兩個變量,對模型進行拓展后回歸,并檢驗確定了最佳模型。三是,利用回歸方程,從總量層面對中國的出口潛力及其影響因素分別進行實證分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)出口潛力整體上呈現(xiàn)出“中間大兩頭細”的狀態(tài),即“潛力拓展型”的國家或地區(qū)占多數(shù)�！皾摿薮笮汀�,“潛力再造型”的國家比較少,且數(shù)量上相差不大,其中“潛力再造型”國家中不乏有發(fā)展程度相當、相似需求度高、但是潛力差距大的國家,這些依然可以是拓展出口潛力的目標。通過對歐盟和東盟以及金磚國家的出口潛力進行了單獨分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)對德國、荷蘭、匈牙利、馬耳他、波蘭、斯洛文尼亞的出口處于不足狀態(tài),對比利時、丹麥等17國的出口適中;對東盟10國的印度尼西亞、馬來西亞、新加坡、菲律賓、越南處于不足狀態(tài),緬甸、泰國、柬埔寨處于適中狀態(tài);金磚國家中對俄羅斯、南非處于不足狀態(tài),對巴西、印度處于適中狀態(tài)。四是,對出口的影響因素分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟總量與出口成正相關,且對出口的影響很大,并且出口對象國的經(jīng)濟總量對數(shù)對中國出口總量對數(shù)的彈性系數(shù)大于中國自身經(jīng)濟總量對出口的彈性系數(shù);匯率對出口具有較小的抑制作用;APEC對出口有很大的促進作用。五是,基于實證的回歸方程,在假定目前的世界經(jīng)濟發(fā)展趨勢穩(wěn)定的條件下對我國未來的出口進行了趨勢分析,并結(jié)合出口的影響因素分析,就中國如何突破瓶頸挖掘出口潛力提出了幾點參考建議。
[Abstract]:Since 2012, China's economy has entered the "new normal" of medium and high speed development under the double pressure of the change in the structure of international market demand and the structural imbalance on the supply side. In this context, the total export volume still ranks first in the world. In 2015, China's exports increased by -2.58 percent, and the comparative advantage of traditional labor-intensive goods exports was gradually weakened. Therefore, the export potential of China was measured and the influencing factors were analyzed. It is of great practical significance. This paper focuses on the export potential of China and its influencing factors. First, on the basis of the research on the domestic and foreign export potential and its influencing factors, the author uses the export data of China from 2001 to 2015 to analyze the export potential of China. This paper analyzes the market structure and export dependence, and finds that China's export has always had problems such as high degree of dependence and concentrated market location distribution, etc. Combined with the analysis of indicative advantage index, it is found that China's export growth has been weak in the post-crisis era. Secondly, in view of the above analysis results, the panel data from 2008 to 2015 are selected, and the gravity model is used as an empirical analysis tool. On the basis of the appreciation of RMB and the resurgence of trade protectionism against China, two variables, exchange rate and APEC, are added to the model, and the model is extended, and the best model is determined. Third, the regression equation is used. Through the empirical analysis of China's export potential and its influencing factors from the total volume level, it is found that the export potential as a whole presents a state of "middle big and two small". That is, "potential development type" countries or regions account for the majority. "potential remolding" countries are relatively small, and the number of "potential remolding" countries is not much different. Among them, "potential remolding" countries have similar development degree and high similarity demand. But countries with large gaps in potential can still be targets for expanding their export potential. A separate analysis of the export potential of the European Union and ASEAN and the BRICS countries shows that in Germany, the Netherlands, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovenia's exports are inadequate, to Belgium, Denmark and other 17 countries moderate; to ASEAN's 10 countries Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Vietnam is inadequate; Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia is in a moderate state; the BRICS countries are in a moderate state for Russia, South Africa, Brazil and India. Fourth, an analysis of the factors affecting exports shows that the total economic volume is positively correlated with exports. And it has a great influence on export, and the elastic coefficient of the logarithm of economic total to the logarithm of China's export is larger than that of China's own economic aggregate to export. Exchange rate has a small inhibitory effect on exports. APEC has a great role in promoting exports. Fifthly, based on the empirical regression equation, the trend analysis of China's future exports is carried out on the assumption that the current world economic development trend is stable. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of export, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to break through the bottleneck and tap the export potential.
【學位授予單位】：河北大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752.62

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