本文關鍵詞： 木質林產品 碳儲量 碳排放 貿易碳流量 對策建議　出處：《北京林業(yè)大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：全球氣候變暖使推行低碳經濟成為全人類的共識,木質林產品碳儲量和碳排放對溫室氣體排放具有重要影響。我國是木質林產品生產和貿易大國,圍繞木質林產品碳儲量和碳排放,估算和分析中國木質林產品碳儲量和碳排放變化及貿易碳流量現狀,基于碳測算結果,提出低碳經濟下優(yōu)化我國木質林產品貿易結構、增強木質林產品碳管理的可行建議,使其在節(jié)能減排過程中發(fā)揮積極作用。本文對IPCC指南中提到的木質林產品碳儲量核算方法進行了對比分析,采用其中的儲量變化法利用FAO數據庫中的生產和貿易數據,估算了1962-2012年中國總體木質林產品碳儲量及2000-2012年貿易碳流量；然后采用投入產出法利用WIOD提供的中國2000-2011年投入產出表估算中國總體木質林產品碳排放及貿易隱含碳排放量,在此基礎上分析中國總體木質林產品貿易碳流量對該行業(yè)碳排放的影響。接著按照FAO對木質林產品的分類標準具體測算分析中國分類木質林產品貿易碳流動現狀。最后,結合碳儲量和碳排放,引入貿易碳效率的概念,從進口、出口兩方面評價中國木質林產品貿易商品結構現狀,并提出優(yōu)化我國木質林產品貿易結構以提高木質林產品貿易碳效率增加國內碳儲量的對策建議。主要研究結論如下：(1)1962-2012年間,中國總體木質林產品碳儲量不斷增長,且增速逐年加快。中國總體木質林產品貿易進出口碳量不斷上漲,總體上屬于碳凈進口型。(2)2000-2011年間,中國總體木質林產品碳排放量平均排在所有國民經濟部門的第二位。中國總體木質林產品進出口隱含碳排放量在某種程度上影響著該行業(yè)碳排放量。中國總體木質林產品貿易碳凈流量對該行業(yè)碳減排起到貢獻作用但作用不大。(3)從分類木質林產品貿易碳流量現狀看,2000-2013年間,工業(yè)原木、鋸材和木漿這三種作為原材料的木質林產品進口碳量大于出口碳量,對中國木質產品碳庫貢獻最大,而人造板、紙和紙板在滿足國內市場需求的同時也出口了大量碳量。(4)從貿易碳效率的角度評價中國木質林產品貿易結構,得出主要進口商品中,木漿、回收紙符合貿易碳效率最優(yōu)標準,工業(yè)原木、鋸材沒有實現貿易碳效率最優(yōu)情況；主要出口商品中,人造板符合貿易碳效率最優(yōu)標準,而紙和紙板沒有實現貿易碳效率最優(yōu)化。最后,根據實證研究結果,提出進一步提高木質林產品貿易碳效率增加國內碳儲量的對策建議。
[Abstract]:Global warming makes the implementation of low-carbon economy a common understanding of all mankind. Carbon storage and carbon emissions from wood forest products have an important impact on greenhouse gas emissions. China is a large country in the production and trade of wood forest products. Based on the carbon storage and carbon emissions of wood forest products, the changes of carbon storage and carbon emissions of wood forest products in China and the current situation of trade carbon flow are estimated and analyzed. Based on the results of carbon measurement, the trade structure of wood forest products in low carbon economy is proposed to optimize the trade structure of wood forest products in China. The feasible suggestions of enhancing carbon management of wood forest products and making them play an active role in the process of energy saving and emission reduction. This paper makes a comparative analysis of the carbon storage accounting methods of wood forest products mentioned in the IPCC guidelines. Based on the production and trade data in FAO database, the carbon storage of China's total woody forest products from 1962 to 2012 and the carbon flux of trade from 2000 to 2012 were estimated by means of reserve variation method. Then the input-output method is used to estimate China's total wood forest product carbon emissions and trade implied carbon emissions using the input-output table provided by WIOD for 2000-2011. On the basis of this, the paper analyzes the influence of the carbon flux of China's total wood forest products trade on the carbon emissions of this industry. Then, according to the classification standard of FAO for wood forest products, the paper calculates and analyzes the current situation of carbon flow in the trade of classified wood forest products in China. Combined with carbon storage and carbon emissions, this paper introduces the concept of trade carbon efficiency, and evaluates the current situation of trade commodity structure of Chinese wood forest products from the aspects of import and export. The countermeasures and suggestions of optimizing the trade structure of woody forest products in China in order to improve the carbon efficiency of trade in wood forest products and to increase domestic carbon reserves are put forward. The main conclusions are as follows: from 1962 to 2012, the total carbon reserves of woody forest products in China increased continuously. And the growth rate has been accelerating year by year. The import and export carbon content of China's total wood forest products trade has been increasing, which is generally a net carbon intake type. China's total woody forest products are ranked second on average among all sectors of the national economy. The implied carbon emissions from imports and exports of china's total woody forest products affect the industry's carbon emissions to some extent. China's total wood industry. Net carbon flow of quality forest products trade plays a contribution to carbon emission reduction in this industry, but it has little effect.) from the current situation of carbon flow in classified wood forest products trade, from 2000 to 2013, Industrial logs, sawn timber and wood pulp are three kinds of wood-based forest products that are raw materials, the import carbon is larger than the export carbon, which contributes the most to the carbon pool of China's wood products, while the wood-based panels. Paper and Board not only meet the domestic market demand, but also export a large amount of carbon.) from the perspective of trade carbon efficiency, the trade structure of China's wood forest products is evaluated. It is concluded that among the main imported commodities, wood pulp and recycled paper meet the optimal standards for trade carbon efficiency. Industrial logs and sawn timber do not achieve optimal trade carbon efficiency; among the main export commodities, wood-based panels meet the trade carbon efficiency criteria, while paper and paperboard do not optimize trade carbon efficiency. Finally, according to empirical research results, The countermeasures and suggestions to further improve the trade carbon efficiency of wood forest products and increase domestic carbon storage are put forward.
【學位授予單位】：北京林業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F426.88;F752.6

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