本文關(guān)鍵詞： 雙向投資 階段定位 貿(mào)易效應(yīng)　出處：《安徽大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：如今,就進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易而言,我國(guó)是世界第一大貿(mào)易國(guó)；就雙向投資流量而言,我國(guó)外資流入流出均位列全球前三。這四大領(lǐng)域都是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要引擎,并且相互之間密切關(guān)聯(lián)�，F(xiàn)今,我國(guó)的雙向投資出現(xiàn)新的變化,對(duì)外直接投資增幅連續(xù)遠(yuǎn)超吸收外資,在此背景下,對(duì)于雙向投資發(fā)展階段問(wèn)題以及其貿(mào)易效應(yīng)的研究對(duì)于我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展具有重要意義。對(duì)這兩部分展開(kāi)討論的方法相對(duì)獨(dú)立,但內(nèi)在關(guān)系密不可分,對(duì)主題二展開(kāi)分析是基于兩個(gè)主題的內(nèi)在關(guān)聯(lián)性基礎(chǔ)上,研究的必要性在于中國(guó)的國(guó)際直接投資出現(xiàn)新的變化趨勢(shì),在雙向投資與進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易緊密相關(guān)的內(nèi)在邏輯下,雙向投資的新進(jìn)展,新特點(diǎn)必然影響到其長(zhǎng)期貿(mào)易效應(yīng),了解這種變動(dòng)和影響是本文研究目的所在。就中國(guó)雙向投資發(fā)展階段問(wèn)題的研究,本文先是在第二章做了現(xiàn)狀分析,分別就吸收外商直接投資和對(duì)外直接投資的規(guī)模、產(chǎn)業(yè)分布和地域分布情況進(jìn)行總結(jié)并大量采用圖表、數(shù)據(jù)等描述性方法進(jìn)行詳述；第三章,本文則是以鄧寧的國(guó)際直接投資發(fā)展周期理論為依據(jù),以前人研究方法為參考,用1982-2013年間凈對(duì)外直接投資額與人均GDP的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,建立二次多項(xiàng)式和四次多項(xiàng)式模型來(lái)擬合投資周期與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的相互關(guān)系,通過(guò)對(duì)模型所得方程的解析認(rèn)為我國(guó)國(guó)際直接投資處于第三階段向第四階段過(guò)渡時(shí)期,并得出我國(guó)直接投資進(jìn)入第四階段的人均GDP臨界點(diǎn)為7024美元。就雙向投資貿(mào)易效應(yīng)問(wèn)題的研究,本文得出結(jié)論認(rèn)為：在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi),對(duì)外直接投資對(duì)于進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易都起到促進(jìn)作用,其中,對(duì)進(jìn)口貿(mào)易的彈性為0.1039,對(duì)出口貿(mào)易的彈性為0.2013；吸收外資對(duì)于進(jìn)口貿(mào)易有微弱的替代效應(yīng),其彈性為-0.001,對(duì)出口貿(mào)易有促進(jìn)效應(yīng),彈性為0.1440。從動(dòng)態(tài)影響過(guò)程來(lái)看,對(duì)外直接投資對(duì)出口存在持續(xù)但收斂的促進(jìn)作用,對(duì)進(jìn)口貿(mào)易的影響存在滯后且初期為負(fù)效應(yīng),三期后轉(zhuǎn)為持續(xù)明顯的正效應(yīng)；外資流入對(duì)出口的影響除了在滯后兩期表現(xiàn)出微小的負(fù)效應(yīng)外,整體呈促進(jìn)效應(yīng),且在滯后十期內(nèi)該促進(jìn)效應(yīng)逐漸趨于增強(qiáng),對(duì)進(jìn)口貿(mào)易整體呈現(xiàn)替代效應(yīng),后期表現(xiàn)出較小的促進(jìn)作用。總的來(lái)說(shuō),脈沖響應(yīng)得出的雙向投資與進(jìn)出口之間動(dòng)態(tài)沖擊效應(yīng)與長(zhǎng)期相互關(guān)系較為吻合,量化了雙向投資的貿(mào)易效應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:Now, as far as import and export trade is concerned, China is the largest trading country in the world. As far as two-way investment flows are concerned, the inflow and outflow of foreign capital in China are among the top three in the world. These four fields are the important engines of China's economic development, and they are closely related to each other. There are new changes in two-way investment in China, and the growth rate of foreign direct investment continues to exceed that of absorbing foreign capital, in this context. The research on the development stage of two-way investment and its trade effect is of great significance to the economic development of our country. The methods to discuss these two parts are relatively independent, but the internal relations are inseparable. The analysis of topic 2 is based on the inherent relevance of the two themes. The necessity of the research lies in the emergence of a new trend of change in China's international direct investment (FDI). Under the internal logic that two-way investment is closely related to import and export trade, the new development of two-way investment will inevitably affect its long-term trade effect. Understanding this change and impact is the purpose of this paper. For the study of the development stage of two-way investment in China, this paper first makes a current situation analysis in the second chapter. The scale of FDI and FDI, industrial distribution and regional distribution are summarized, and a large number of descriptive methods, such as charts and data, are used in detail. The third chapter, this paper is based on Deng Ning's theory of the development cycle of international direct investment, previous research methods for reference. The time series data of net outward direct investment (OFDI) and GDP per capita for the period 1982-2013 were used as samples. The quadratic polynomial model and the fourth order polynomial model are established to fit the relationship between the investment cycle and the level of economic development. Through the analysis of the equation obtained from the model, it is concluded that China's international direct investment is in the transition period from the third stage to the 4th stage. At the same time, the critical point of per capita GDP of China's direct investment entering the 4th stage is US $7024. On the basis of the research on the effect of two-way investment trade, this paper draws the conclusion that: in the long run. Foreign direct investment promotes import and export trade, in which the elasticity of import trade is 0.1039, and that of export trade is 0.2013; The absorption of foreign capital has a weak substitution effect on import trade, its elasticity is -0.001, it has a promoting effect on export trade, and its elasticity is 0.1440.From the view of dynamic influence process. Foreign direct investment (OFDI) has a continuous but convergent promoting effect on exports, a delayed and negative effect on import trade at the initial stage, and a sustained and obvious positive effect after three periods. In addition to the impact of foreign capital inflow on exports in the two lag periods showing a small negative effect, the overall effect is a promotional effect, and in the ten periods of lag, the promotion effect tends to strengthen gradually, and the overall import trade as a whole presents a substitution effect. In general, the dynamic impact effect between two-way investment and import and export obtained by impulse response is consistent with the long-term relationship, which quantifies the trade effect of two-way investment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6;F752

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