本文關(guān)鍵詞： 貿(mào)易便利化 出口額 評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo) 引力模型　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：從世界范圍看,2008年金融危機(jī)之后,世界各國(guó)為了改善經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)造成的損失,積極采取措施恢復(fù)本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)溫和復(fù)蘇,并沒有出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁的態(tài)勢(shì),反而各國(guó)出現(xiàn)分化并且世界貿(mào)易的發(fā)展緩慢增長(zhǎng)。從國(guó)內(nèi)看,加入WTO以來我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易得到了飛速的發(fā)展。根據(jù)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局的數(shù)據(jù),中國(guó)貿(mào)易總額2001年為5096.5億美元,2015年為39600億美元,15年間我國(guó)貿(mào)易總額增加了7.77倍。雖然中國(guó)的貿(mào)易總額有了很大的提高,但是近幾年增長(zhǎng)的幅度變小,甚至2015年呈現(xiàn)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)�；谝陨显�,世界各國(guó)正在尋找其他途徑促進(jìn)貿(mào)易發(fā)展。而貿(mào)易便利化是解決此問題的主要方法之一。因?yàn)橘Q(mào)易便利化是通過降低各國(guó)之間的貿(mào)易成本、減少貿(mào)易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等方法改善貿(mào)易條件,是一個(gè)雙贏的措施。并且2015年中國(guó)加入WTO多哈回合的《貿(mào)易便利化協(xié)定》,說明貿(mào)易便利化在我國(guó)越來越得到重視。因此,提高貿(mào)易便利化將是未來促進(jìn)全球貿(mào)易的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略之一,也是改善我國(guó)貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀的主要途徑。根據(jù)綜上所述的國(guó)內(nèi)外背景,本文主要從以下幾方面研究貿(mào)易便利化對(duì)我國(guó)出口貿(mào)易的影響。首先介紹這一選題背景、研究意義以及國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)綜述,使我們對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外貿(mào)易便利化的研究現(xiàn)狀有一個(gè)系統(tǒng)了解。然后在貿(mào)易便利化理論的基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)Wilson方法測(cè)算各項(xiàng)指標(biāo),選取了2014年與我國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易額排名前36的國(guó)家或地區(qū)為研究對(duì)象,以2009-2015年的指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,估計(jì)了我國(guó)的貿(mào)易便利化的發(fā)展水平以及樣本國(guó)家貿(mào)易便利化的水平。計(jì)算出我國(guó)與發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的貿(mào)易便利化水平相比有很大差距。其次,我們選取了人口、距離、GDP、關(guān)稅、貿(mào)易便利化的各項(xiàng)指數(shù)和綜合指數(shù)為自變量,中國(guó)對(duì)該國(guó)家或地區(qū)的出口為因變量的面板數(shù)據(jù),根據(jù)John S.Wilson的擴(kuò)展引力模型回歸分析。實(shí)證得出貿(mào)易便利化的指數(shù)與我國(guó)出口額有密切關(guān)系。在自變量中,兩國(guó)或區(qū)域之間的距離和國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值對(duì)貿(mào)易額影響最大,貿(mào)易便利化的指數(shù)的影響次之,關(guān)稅影響最小。此外,在貿(mào)易便利化的各項(xiàng)分指數(shù)回歸中得出,該進(jìn)口國(guó)的海關(guān)及貿(mào)易環(huán)境、口岸及物流效率指數(shù)對(duì)我國(guó)出口貿(mào)易額影響較大,制度環(huán)境次之,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)及金融影響較小。最后,我們?cè)谇懊娣治龅幕A(chǔ)上,切實(shí)提出加強(qiáng)我國(guó)貿(mào)易便利化的發(fā)展的建議,促進(jìn)貿(mào)易便利化的建設(shè)。改善我國(guó)貿(mào)易條件不僅本國(guó)受益也有利于他國(guó),是一個(gè)雙贏的機(jī)制,所以加強(qiáng)貿(mào)易便利化國(guó)際和國(guó)內(nèi)范疇的合作是未來我國(guó)發(fā)展的重點(diǎn)。
[Abstract]:From the world perspective, after the financial crisis in 2008, in order to improve the losses caused by the economic crisis, countries in the world have taken active measures to restore their own economy. On the contrary, various countries have been divided and the development of world trade has been growing slowly. From the domestic point of view, China's foreign trade has developed rapidly since China's entry into WTO. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics. China's total trade volume was $509.65 billion in 2001 and $3.96 tillion in 2015. China's total trade volume has increased 7.77 times in the past 15 years. Although China's total trade volume has greatly increased, the growth rate in recent years has become smaller, and even in 2015 there has been a negative growth. Countries around the world are looking for other ways to promote trade. Trade facilitation is one of the main ways to solve this problem, because trade facilitation is by reducing the cost of trade among countries. It is a win-win measure to reduce trade risk and improve the terms of trade, and China joined the Doha Round Agreement on Trade Facilitation in 2015. Therefore, improving trade facilitation will be one of the development strategies to promote global trade in the future. It is also the main way to improve the current situation of China's trade. According to the domestic and foreign background, this paper mainly studies the impact of trade facilitation on China's export trade from the following aspects. Firstly, this paper introduces the background of this topic. The significance of the research and the literature review at home and abroad, so that we have a systematic understanding of the current situation of trade facilitation at home and abroad, and then on the basis of trade facilitation theory. According to the Wilson method, selected the top 36 countries or regions of import and export trade volume with China in 2014 as the research object. Take the indicator data for 2009-2015 as a sample. The development level of trade facilitation in China and the level of trade facilitation in sample countries are estimated. It is calculated that there is a big gap between China and developed countries in the level of trade facilitation. Secondly, we select the population. GDPs, tariffs, trade facilitation indices and composite indices are independent variables, and China's exports to the country or region are dependent panel data. According to John S. Wilson's extended gravity model regression analysis, it is concluded that the index of trade facilitation is closely related to the export value of China. The distance between the two countries or regions and GDP have the greatest impact on trade volume, followed by the impact of the trade facilitation index and the least impact on tariffs. In addition, it is derived from the return of the sub-indices of trade facilitation. The import country's customs and trade environment, port and logistics efficiency index have a greater impact on China's export trade volume, followed by the institutional environment, Internet and financial impact is small. Finally, we on the basis of the previous analysis. It is a win-win mechanism to improve China's terms of trade not only for its own benefit but also for other countries. Therefore, strengthening international and domestic cooperation in trade facilitation is the focus of China's future development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F752.62

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