本文關(guān)鍵詞：TPP達成對中國貿(mào)易發(fā)展的影響探究　出處：《經(jīng)濟理論與經(jīng)濟管理》2016年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

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【摘要】：本文基于歷史發(fā)展和預測模擬來探究跨太平洋戰(zhàn)略經(jīng)濟伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定(TPP)達成可能對中國對外貿(mào)易發(fā)展產(chǎn)生的影響。通過考察2000年至2014年間TPP成員同中國之間的貿(mào)易發(fā)展狀況,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)近年來中國對TPP成員的貿(mào)易依賴程度逐漸降低,但在TPP內(nèi)部削減關(guān)稅的情況下,中國向部分TPP成員的出口在一定程度上可能會受到其他成員的擠壓。根據(jù)可計算一般均衡(CGE)模擬的結(jié)果,短期內(nèi)中國不加入TPP對其貿(mào)易額、產(chǎn)出和國民福利的影響都是微小的,只有紡織品和服裝行業(yè)產(chǎn)出下降較為明顯,而運輸設(shè)備、鋼鐵、金屬制品等行業(yè)出口受到較大抑制。TPP成員目前仍是中國不可或缺的貿(mào)易伙伴,無論是從貿(mào)易發(fā)展的角度,還是從提升國際地位和維護自身在亞太地區(qū)影響力的角度,中國最終都應考慮加入TPP。
[Abstract]:This paper explores the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP) based on historical development and forecasting simulations. By examining the development of trade between TPP members and China from 2000 to 2014. This paper finds that China's trade dependence on TPP members has gradually decreased in recent years, but in the case of tariff reduction within the TPP. China's exports to some of the TPP members may be squeezed by other members to some extent. According to the results of the computable general equilibrium simulation, China will not join the TPP trade volume in the short term. The impact of both output and national welfare is minimal, with only the textile and clothing sectors having a more pronounced decline in output, while transport equipment, steel. Exports from industries such as metal products have been severely curbed. TPP members remain China's indispensable trading partner, both from the perspective of trade development. Or in terms of raising its international profile and maintaining its influence in the Asia-Pacific region, China should eventually consider joining TPPs.
【作者單位】： 中國人民大學經(jīng)濟學院;
【基金】：中國人民大學科學研究基金(中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費專項資金資助)“中國企業(yè)對外直接投資行為研究——跨越貿(mào)易壁壘動機重要嗎?”(13XNI006)的階段性成果
【分類號】：F744;F752
【正文快照】： *王孝松、何欣悅,中國人民大學經(jīng)濟學院,郵政編碼:100872,電子信箱:wangxiaosong@ruc.edu.cn。本文為中國人民大學科學研究基金(中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費專項資金資助)“中國企業(yè)對外直接投資行為研究——跨越貿(mào)易壁壘動機重要嗎?”(13XNI006)的階段性成果。感謝匿名評審人提出，

本文編號：1423122