發(fā)布時間：2018-01-10 23:28

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國原油進口風(fēng)險對原油進口成本、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響　出處：《吉林財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 原油進口風(fēng)險 進口地理集中度 赫芬達(dá)爾指數(shù) 原油進口成本 經(jīng)濟增長

【摘要】：石油是中國工業(yè)發(fā)展進程中至關(guān)重要的基礎(chǔ)物資,同時也是我國工業(yè)的戰(zhàn)略儲備。如果能夠持續(xù)地、穩(wěn)定健康地從國際市場上獲取石油資源,我國的經(jīng)濟增長將會得到積極有效的促進。與此同時,合理的石油供應(yīng)為國家的政治安全和軍事安全提供了保障,有利于實現(xiàn)我國的強國戰(zhàn)略。隨著我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的步伐越來越大,石油的需求量也越來越大。目前國內(nèi)的石油供需現(xiàn)狀是供給和需求之間極度不平衡。其中的原因是,我國的石油生產(chǎn)和供給能力相比于消費能力還有很大一段差距,這導(dǎo)致了石油對外進口的依賴度越來越大。從1993年開始,我國的石油進口量已經(jīng)超過了出口量,這意味著我國石油自產(chǎn)自足的局面已被打破。近些年來,不斷攀升的石油對外進口依賴程度使得我國未來的石油安全形勢更加嚴(yán)峻。而我國能否在國際經(jīng)濟全球化的進程中繼續(xù)保持良好的發(fā)展勢頭,很大程度上取決于是否有足夠穩(wěn)定又安全的石油供給。本文主要以原油進口風(fēng)險、原油進口成本與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展為基本分析因素,首先對中國在原油進口過程中所存在的風(fēng)險、進口原油所需付出的成本以及經(jīng)濟的增長情況進行了簡單的介紹和分析,在石油安全方面,中國凸顯了重要問題。接下來采用1988-2013年期間能夠反映中國原油進口風(fēng)險的赫芬達(dá)爾指數(shù)來考察中國原油進口地理集中度的演進趨勢。把原油進口成本、經(jīng)濟增長的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進行量化,再分別對其與進口地理集中度的發(fā)展變化關(guān)系進行研究,得到原油進口成本及經(jīng)濟增長在進口地理集中度作用影響下的變化趨勢。原油貿(mào)易的健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展與否,很大程度上將會決定我國在進口原油方面的風(fēng)險程度乃至我國的能源安全與否。在此,筆者針對怎樣能夠有效地規(guī)避原油進口風(fēng)險的問題提出了原油進口來源的多元化、貿(mào)易方式的多元化、運輸方式的多元化以及不斷完善我國石油戰(zhàn)略儲備的對策和建議。并集中分析了石油進口來源多元化的方針,通過分析中國未來石油貿(mào)易對象國家和地區(qū)的具體情況,提出在與其進行貿(mào)易的過程中應(yīng)當(dāng)采取的具體策略。筆者希望本文能夠為我國未來的原油貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略的制定帶來啟示,進而對整個的中國對外貿(mào)易發(fā)展產(chǎn)生積極作用。
[Abstract]:Oil is the basic material in the process of China vital industrial development, but also China's industrial strategic reserves. If sustained, stable and healthy access to oil resources from the international market, China's economic growth will be promoted effectively. At the same time, the reasonable oil supply provides a guarantee for the country's political and security military security, is conducive to the realization of China's great power strategy. With the pace of China's economic development is more and more big, oil demand is also growing. The present situation of domestic oil supply and demand is between the supply and demand imbalance. The reason is that China's oil production and supply capacity compared to the consumption capacity there is a great gap, which leads to foreign oil imports growing dependence. From the beginning of 1993, China's oil imports more than exports, which means I China's oil production self-sufficiency situation has been broken. In recent years, rising oil import dependence makes the future oil security situation in our country is more severe. China will continue to maintain a good momentum of development in the process of economic globalization, largely depends on whether there is enough stable and safe supply of oil in this paper. The risk of imported crude oil, crude oil imports cost and economic development as the basic analysis of the risk factors, the first Chinese which exists in the process of crude oil imports, imports of crude oil costs and economic growth are briefly introduced and analyzed, in the oil security, China highlights important issues. The next period of 1988-2013 can reflect the China crude oil import risk Beh Finn Dahl index to examine the evolution trend of the geographical concentration of crude oil imports China. The cost of imported crude oil, quantitative data of economic growth, then the import and geographical concentration degree of development and change, get the cost of crude oil imports and economic growth change trend of concentration of the role under the influence of imported crude oil trade geography. Whether or not the healthy and stable development, largely determines the risk the extent of China's crude oil imports in the area and even China's energy security or not. Here, the author how to effectively avoid the risk of imported crude oil is proposed to diversify sources of crude oil imports, diversification of trade mode, diversified modes of transport and constantly improve the strategic petroleum reserve in China and countermeasures and suggestions. Analysis of the sources of oil imports diversification policy, through the analysis of the specific circumstances of Chinese future oil trade countries and regions, and put in for trade The specific strategies that should be taken in the course of the change are: I hope this article can provide inspiration for China's future crude oil trade strategy formulation, and further play a positive role in the development of China's foreign trade.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F426.22;F752.61

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