本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國進出口貿(mào)易中的內(nèi)涵能源測算研究　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 內(nèi)涵能源 投入產(chǎn)出模型 進出口貿(mào)易 區(qū)間凈值 平均凈值

【摘要】：隨著世界各國經(jīng)濟的不斷發(fā)展,國際間進出口貿(mào)易范圍也在不斷擴大。近年來,中國能源需求和溫室氣體排放呈現(xiàn)快速增長趨勢。各種形式的“中國能源威脅論”先后出現(xiàn),因此通過對“內(nèi)涵能源”概念的深入研究,并采用投入產(chǎn)出模型對中國進出口貿(mào)易中的內(nèi)涵能源量進行測算,能夠更好地從消費側(cè)角度證實中國是能源的消耗國,而并非最終的能源產(chǎn)品消費國。 本文從內(nèi)涵能源的概念出發(fā),詳細(xì)整理了現(xiàn)有文獻中對內(nèi)涵能源測算區(qū)域范圍、數(shù)據(jù)來源及劃分、模型運用、誤差來源、內(nèi)涵能源結(jié)構(gòu)和能源安全評價等的差異性。本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于借鑒投入產(chǎn)出模型,采用1995年到2009年WIOD提供的世界投入產(chǎn)出表中國表以及能源消耗總量數(shù)據(jù),將中國的部門依照WIOD的國際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)劃分為34個部門(除去家庭消費),整理并測算出中國34個分部門單邊貿(mào)易進出口內(nèi)涵能源量。同時采用世界銀行提供的中國、日本、美國、澳大利亞、韓國和德國1995年到2013年的能源消耗總量,以中國現(xiàn)有的技術(shù)水平測算出中國進出口貿(mào)易中內(nèi)涵能源上限凈值;由于日本的技術(shù)水平處于世界領(lǐng)先位置,本文假設(shè)并測算出以日本直接消耗系數(shù)和能耗強度代替的中國進出口貿(mào)易中內(nèi)涵能源下限凈值。同時測算出中國同其他五個國家進出口貿(mào)易中內(nèi)涵能源平均凈值。本文引入進出口系數(shù)對模型進行修正,在較大程度上降低了測算誤差。 研究結(jié)果表明,從1995年到2009年中國分部門進出口能源強度和1995年到2013年中國各年份進出口貿(mào)易能源強度的測算結(jié)果對比中可以發(fā)現(xiàn),中國整體的能源強度都遠(yuǎn)高于日本、美國等國家的4-13倍左右,并且中國主要能源部門消耗的內(nèi)涵能源量極高,2009年中國單邊貿(mào)易進出口內(nèi)涵能源凈值排在前三位的部門為電氣、燃?xì)夂退⿷?yīng)業(yè),精煉石油和核燃料業(yè),以及基本金屬和金屬業(yè)。這三個高度能源消耗部門的內(nèi)涵能源量占中國34個部門總內(nèi)涵能源量的44.11%,同時中國進出口內(nèi)涵能源總量上升明顯。從1995年到2013年中國進出口貿(mào)易中內(nèi)涵能源區(qū)間凈值測算結(jié)果中可以發(fā)現(xiàn),中國進出口內(nèi)涵能源上下限凈值的差距非常大。受到美國、日本、澳大利亞、德國和韓國五個國家較低的直接消耗系數(shù)和能源強度的影響,測算出的中國進出口貿(mào)易中內(nèi)涵能源平均凈值處于一個較低的水平并且增長趨勢緩慢,這個測算結(jié)果應(yīng)屬于合理的范圍。結(jié)果證實中國是內(nèi)涵能源凈出口國家。最后,本文提出相應(yīng)的應(yīng)對措施和政策建議,鼓勵新能源的開發(fā)與利用,并且從政府和公民的角度提出相應(yīng)的改善措施。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of the world economy and the international import and export trade is also expanding. In recent years, China demand for energy and greenhouse gas emissions showed a rapid growth trend. The various forms of "Chinese energy threat" has appeared, therefore through in-depth study of the connotation of "energy" concept, and the connotation of input-output model the amount of energy in the import and export trade China estimates, can better from the perspective of the consumer side is confirmed Chinese energy consumption country, but not the final consumption of energy products in China.
This article from the concept of energy, with the connotation of the finishing energy estimates range of existing literature, data sources and classification, model application, error sources, differences in the connotation of energy structure and energy safety evaluation. The innovation of this paper lies in using the input-output model, using 1995 to 2009 WIOD world input-output table China table and total energy consumption data, the Chinese department in accordance with the division of the international standard WIOD 34 sector (excluding household consumption), and calculate the China finishing 34 Department of unilateral trade import and export volume. At the same time the content of energy provided by the world bank Chinese, Japan, America, Australia, South Korea and Germany in 1995 by 2013 the total energy consumption, to China existing technology level estimates of the Chinese import and export trade of energy embodied in the upper limit of the net; the technical level In the leading position in the world, this assumption and calculate the coefficient and energy intensity China instead of import and export trade of energy embodied in the lower net direct consumption in Japan. At the same time to calculate the Chinese with five other countries import and export trade in average net energy. This paper introduces the connotation of the import and export coefficient model was modified, greatly reduced the calculation error.
The results show that from 1995 to 2009 China Branch Import and export of energy intensity and calculation results of each year from 1995 to China import and export trade of energy intensity contrast can be found in 2013, the overall energy intensity China are much higher than Japan, the United States and other countries 4-13 times the left and right amount of energy and high China connotation of major energy consuming sectors in 2009, China unilateral trade import and export of embodied energy net ranked the top three in the Department of electrical, gas and water supply industry, petroleum refining and nuclear fuel industry, as well as the basic metals and metal industry. The three departments of the high energy consumption accounted for 34 of the energy content of China total amount of energy content of the 44.11% department at the same time, the connotation of China import and export total energy increased significantly. From 1995 to 2013 China import and export trade of energy embodied in the range of the net results can be found in the import and export Chinese connotation On the lower limit of the net value of the energy gap is very big. By the United States, Japan, Australia, influence of direct consumption coefficient and energy intensity in Germany and South Korea in the lower five states, estimates of the import and export trade Chinese connotation of average net energy is at a low level and slow growth trend, this result should belong to the scope of the results show that Chinese is reasonable. The connotation of net energy export countries. Finally, put forward corresponding measures and policy proposals in this paper, the development and utilization of new energy to encourage, and put forward the corresponding improvement measures from the government and the citizen's point of view.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.6

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