【摘要】：金融穩(wěn)定下影響資本賬戶開(kāi)放策略選擇的關(guān)聯(lián)因素分析是目前國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)的研究熱點(diǎn)。本文構(gòu)建一個(gè)包含資本賬戶開(kāi)放、金融穩(wěn)定、國(guó)內(nèi)儲(chǔ)蓄率、對(duì)外債務(wù)履約狀況、公眾對(duì)金融體系的信心、金融深化以及消費(fèi)不均等程度等諸多因素組成的系統(tǒng)分析框架,采用理論模型和實(shí)證方法探討影響新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體金融開(kāi)放的相關(guān)因素。綜合研究成果表明,資本賬戶開(kāi)放在某種程度上會(huì)導(dǎo)致金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的上升。一國(guó)較低的儲(chǔ)蓄率以及對(duì)外債務(wù)狀況的惡化則會(huì)加劇開(kāi)放引致的金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn),而金融深化與消費(fèi)水平不均等程度的改善以及公眾對(duì)金融體系信心的提升在一定程度上都會(huì)有效增強(qiáng)開(kāi)放進(jìn)程中經(jīng)濟(jì)體的金融穩(wěn)定程度,進(jìn)而實(shí)現(xiàn)占優(yōu)策略均衡。值得注意的是,本文提出了中國(guó)存在針對(duì)金融開(kāi)放進(jìn)程進(jìn)行重新再思考的現(xiàn)實(shí)必要性。
[Abstract]:The analysis of the related factors affecting the choice of capital account opening strategy under financial stability is a hot research topic in the literature at home and abroad at present. This paper constructs a systematic analysis framework composed of many factors, such as capital account opening, financial stability, domestic savings rate, external debt performance, public confidence in the financial system, financial deepening and the degree of consumption inequality, and uses theoretical models and empirical methods to explore the related factors affecting the financial opening of emerging market economies. The comprehensive research results show that the opening of capital account will lead to the rise of financial risk to some extent. The low savings rate of a country and the deterioration of its external debt situation will aggravate the financial risks caused by openness, and the improvement of the inequality of financial deepening and consumption level, as well as the improvement of public confidence in the financial system, will effectively enhance the degree of financial stability of the economies in the process of opening up to a certain extent, and thus achieve the dominant strategic balance. It is worth noting that this paper puts forward the realistic necessity of rethinking the process of financial opening in China.
【作者單位】： 華東師范大學(xué)金融研究院;英國(guó)杜倫大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):70873041) 教育部人文社科規(guī)劃后期項(xiàng)目(11JHQ032) 2011年上海市教委科研創(chuàng)新項(xiàng)目的資助
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6

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