【摘要】：2008年全球性的金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來，美國貨幣當(dāng)局為推動(dòng)其國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇實(shí)施了量化寬松貨幣政策，該項(xiàng)政策的執(zhí)行將不可避免的對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生較為深遠(yuǎn)的影響。本文根據(jù)相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論，著重分析了美國量化寬松貨幣政策對(duì)我國的國際收支狀況造成的沖擊與影響，認(rèn)為政策實(shí)施的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制，會(huì)加劇我國國際收支失衡現(xiàn)象。文中運(yùn)用經(jīng)濟(jì)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，建立以經(jīng)常賬戶差額、長期資本流動(dòng)差額和外匯儲(chǔ)備余額為行為變量的聯(lián)立方程模型對(duì)上述影響進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，并應(yīng)用嶺回歸方法解決模型中所遇到的估計(jì)問題，，得到了美國量化寬松政策的實(shí)施使我國經(jīng)常賬戶差額下降、長期資本流動(dòng)差額上升和外匯儲(chǔ)備余額下降的結(jié)論。 本文建議，我國應(yīng)當(dāng)繼續(xù)推進(jìn)人民幣匯率生成機(jī)制改革，使我國的匯率生成機(jī)制由政策因素主導(dǎo)向市場(chǎng)因素主導(dǎo)轉(zhuǎn)變，提高我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)行效率；同時(shí)，我國貨幣當(dāng)局應(yīng)當(dāng)逐步推進(jìn)利率生成機(jī)制改革，充分發(fā)揮利率在資源優(yōu)化配置中的杠桿作用，提高我國資金的使用效率；此外，還應(yīng)當(dāng)維持我國現(xiàn)有的資本流動(dòng)管制，以此作為減輕我國外部失衡和保持金融穩(wěn)定的一條途徑。
[Abstract]:Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the monetary authorities of the United States have implemented a quantitative easing monetary policy to promote their domestic economic recovery. The implementation of the policy will inevitably have a far-reaching impact on China's economy. Based on the relevant economic theory, this paper analyzes the impact and influence of American quantitative easing monetary policy on China's international balance of payments, and points out that the transmission mechanism of policy implementation will aggravate the imbalance of China's international balance of payments. In this paper, we use economic statistics to establish a simultaneous equation model which takes current account difference, long-term capital flow balance and foreign exchange reserve balance as behavioral variables to carry on the empirical analysis to the above-mentioned effects. The ridge regression method is used to solve the estimation problems encountered in the model, and the conclusion is drawn that the implementation of quantitative easing policy in the United States will reduce the current account balance, increase the long-term capital flow balance and decrease the balance of foreign exchange reserves in China. This paper suggests that China should continue to promote the reform of RMB exchange rate generation mechanism so that the exchange rate generation mechanism of China can be transformed from policy factors to market factors so as to improve the operational efficiency of China's economy. At the same time, China's monetary authorities should gradually promote the reform of interest rate generation mechanism, give full play to the leverage of interest rates in the optimal allocation of resources, and improve the efficiency of the use of funds in our country; In addition, the existing capital flow control should be maintained as a way to reduce the external imbalance and maintain financial stability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F827.12;F832.6

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