【摘要】：首先將金融發(fā)展分為金融規(guī)模與金融調(diào)控兩個(gè)部分,然后利用聚類分析、向量自回歸模型、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)、狀態(tài)空間模型全面系統(tǒng)地研究了金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明,不同研究方法的結(jié)論可以互相補(bǔ)充、互相支撐。金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間互為因果關(guān)系。中國(guó)的金融—經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)在1993、1994年左右存在結(jié)構(gòu)變化,在結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變過(guò)程中,金融對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的調(diào)控是平穩(wěn)的。金融規(guī)模對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有促進(jìn)作用,金融調(diào)控手段在調(diào)節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)的同時(shí),對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)也有微弱的促進(jìn)作用。金融調(diào)控對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用無(wú)論是正向還是反向,都是對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)。
[Abstract]:Firstly, financial development is divided into two parts: financial scale and financial regulation. Then the relationship between financial development and economic growth is studied comprehensively and systematically by means of cluster analysis, vector autoregressive model, Granger causality test and state space model. The results show that the conclusions of different research methods can complement each other and support each other. There is a causal relationship between financial development and economic growth. There are structural changes in China's financial-economic system in 1993 and 1994. In the course of structural transformation, financial regulation and control to the economy is stable. Financial scale plays an important role in promoting economic growth. Financial regulation means not only regulate the economy, but also have a weak promoting effect on economic growth. The effect of financial regulation on economic growth, whether positive or negative, is a contribution to economic growth.
【作者單位】： 寧波大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社科基金項(xiàng)目“民間資本主持中小企業(yè)發(fā)展路徑與對(duì)策”(10BJY105) 寧波大學(xué)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會(huì)發(fā)展研究院重點(diǎn)課題“金融發(fā)展促進(jìn)科技創(chuàng)新的機(jī)制、模式與對(duì)策研究”(QYJYS1106);寧波大學(xué)2011年學(xué)科項(xiàng)目“中國(guó)金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的變參數(shù)研究”(XKW11002)
【分類號(hào)】：F832;F124;F224

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