【摘要】：城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)是我國(guó)城市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、居民生活水平進(jìn)步的牢固基礎(chǔ),并且隨著現(xiàn)代化發(fā)展,其龍頭地位愈加凸顯。然而,在實(shí)際社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行過(guò)程中,我國(guó)仍未能真正認(rèn)識(shí)到這一問(wèn)題,使得基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投融資平臺(tái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)日益突出,由于投資項(xiàng)目類(lèi)型多樣化與融資方式多元化導(dǎo)致的結(jié)構(gòu)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)逐漸浮現(xiàn)。如何有效評(píng)價(jià)城投公司多元化融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及對(duì)結(jié)構(gòu)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)警,對(duì)于指導(dǎo)地方投融資平臺(tái)自身發(fā)展,乃至地方、國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,都具有重要意義。鑒于此,本研究從以下幾個(gè)方面展開(kāi):(1)以三大理論(公共物品理論、可銷(xiāo)售評(píng)估理論、項(xiàng)目區(qū)分理論)為基礎(chǔ),分析城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施資產(chǎn)特點(diǎn)、投融資平臺(tái)融資需求的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素,概述投融資平臺(tái)的融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與項(xiàng)目經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。(2)針對(duì)項(xiàng)目類(lèi)型多樣性和融資方式多元化匹配問(wèn)題,建立包括經(jīng)營(yíng)性、融資結(jié)構(gòu)、負(fù)債程度和收益水平的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,從橫向和縱向角度評(píng)價(jià)城投公司多元化融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn),在此基礎(chǔ)上提出了結(jié)構(gòu)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概念,引入熵值法和理想點(diǎn)法量化多元化融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。(3)對(duì)提出的結(jié)構(gòu)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行影響因素研究,將蒙特卡洛模擬與Logistic多項(xiàng)回歸模型相結(jié)合,對(duì)結(jié)構(gòu)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響因素量化與相關(guān)性分析,依據(jù)分析結(jié)果提出結(jié)構(gòu)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型,有效指導(dǎo)公司進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范。
[Abstract]:Urban infrastructure construction is the solid foundation for the development of urban economy and the progress of residents' living standard, and with the development of modernization, its leading position becomes more and more prominent. However, in the process of actual social and economic operation, our country still can not really realize this problem, which makes the risk of infrastructure investment and financing platform more and more prominent. The structural risks caused by the diversification of investment project types and financing methods gradually emerge. How to effectively evaluate the diversified financing risk and predict the structural risk is of great significance to guide the development of local investment and financing platform and even the local and national economic development. In view of this, this study is carried out from the following aspects: (1) based on three theories (public goods theory, marketable evaluation theory, project differentiation theory), the characteristics of urban infrastructure assets are analyzed. The driving factors of the financing demand of the investment and financing platform, the financing risk and the project management risk of the investment and financing platform are summarized. (2) aiming at the problem of the diversification of the project type and the diversification of the financing mode, the paper establishes the management and financing structure. The risk evaluation index system of debt degree and income level, from the horizontal and vertical angles to evaluate the risk of diversified financing of the City Investment Corporation, on the basis of this, put forward the concept of structural risk. The entropy method and ideal point method are introduced to quantify the risk of diversified financing. (3) the influence factors of the proposed structural risk are studied, and the Monte Carlo simulation is combined with the Logistic multiple regression model. Based on the quantitative analysis and correlation analysis of the influencing factors of structural risk, the early warning model of structural risk is put forward according to the results of the analysis, which can effectively guide the company to carry out risk prevention.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.39

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