【摘要】：自20世紀(jì)30年代的大蕭條時(shí)期以來，在近一個(gè)世紀(jì)的時(shí)間里，有關(guān)“貨幣”和“貨幣政策”的學(xué)術(shù)研究不斷推進(jìn)，研究成果層出不窮，相關(guān)理論和實(shí)踐不斷突破創(chuàng)新。對(duì)“流動(dòng)性陷阱”及相關(guān)問題的研究，一直是這些理論與實(shí)踐關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)。針對(duì)貨幣非中性和“流動(dòng)性陷阱”等問題，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和美、日等國的政策制定者們以債務(wù)—通縮原理和“金融加速器”等理論為基礎(chǔ)，推出了“量化寬松貨幣政策”這一工具。 量化寬松貨幣政策是指“中央銀行在實(shí)行零利率或近似零利率政策后，通過購買國債等中長期債券，增加基礎(chǔ)貨幣供給，向市場注入大量流動(dòng)性的干預(yù)方式”。量化寬松貨幣政策的操作策略主要包括政策承諾、改變央行資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的結(jié)構(gòu)和擴(kuò)大央行資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的規(guī)模等。量化寬松貨幣政策的目標(biāo)包括克服通貨緊縮、穩(wěn)定價(jià)格水平，恢復(fù)信貸體系功能、維護(hù)金融系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定以及刺激投資和消費(fèi)、恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長等，其傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制主要分為拉動(dòng)GDP中消費(fèi)、投資和出口增加的機(jī)制三類。 日本是全球范圍內(nèi)首個(gè)使用量化寬松貨幣政策的國家。2001年，為了扭轉(zhuǎn)日本自20世紀(jì)90年代以來的通貨緊縮和經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退局面，在零利率政策已經(jīng)失效的情況下，日本銀行決定實(shí)施量化寬松貨幣政策。這一政策一直持續(xù)至2006年，對(duì)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)起到了一定的提振效果。在2008年的全球金融危機(jī)中，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)再受重創(chuàng)，這使得日本銀行于2010年再次求助于量化寬松貨幣政策這根稻草。2012年12月日本新任首相安倍晉三上任后，更是推出了被稱為“安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”的一系列大膽、激進(jìn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激政策，其中包括了史無前例的超大規(guī)模量化寬松。日本新一輪量化寬松貨幣政策的實(shí)施吸引了全球各國的關(guān)注，也為量化寬松貨幣政策的理論研究提供了新的素材。 本文根據(jù)已有理論體系，對(duì)日本新一輪量化寬松貨幣政策的有效性和傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)性分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，日本新一輪量化寬松貨幣政策在克服通貨緊縮、穩(wěn)定價(jià)格水平方面發(fā)揮了作用，，但在恢復(fù)信貸體系功能、維護(hù)金融系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定以及刺激投資和消費(fèi)、恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長等方面的作用并不明顯。同時(shí)，在日本的新一輪量化寬松貨幣政策實(shí)施過程中，受到私人部門和金融機(jī)構(gòu)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表狀況的影響，以及日本原材料主要依賴進(jìn)口的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的制約，量化寬松貨幣政策的部分傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制是無效的。 根據(jù)以上的研究，本文得出的結(jié)論是：量化寬松貨幣政策作為一項(xiàng)政策工具單獨(dú)實(shí)施的效果比較有限，日本政府必須將貨幣政策與財(cái)政政策、結(jié)構(gòu)性改革政策等其他政策與之相配合，才能有效地提振日本經(jīng)濟(jì)。最后，本文對(duì)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)未來一個(gè)階段的走勢和潛在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了分析預(yù)測。
[Abstract]:Since the Great Depression in the 1930s, the academic research on "money" and "monetary policy" has been continuously promoted in nearly a century, and the related theories and practices have been innovated and broken through one after another. The research on liquidity trap and related problems has always been the focus of attention in theory and practice. On the basis of the theory of debt-deflation and "financial accelerator", economists and policymakers in the United States, Japan and other countries have developed the tool of "quantitative easing monetary policy" in response to the problems of currency non-neutrality and "liquidity trap". The monetary policy of quantitative easing refers to "the intervention of the central bank to increase the basic money supply and inject a large amount of liquidity into the market by purchasing bonds and other medium- and long-term bonds after the implementation of zero interest rate or near-zero interest rate policy." The operational strategies of QE mainly include policy commitments, changing the structure of the central bank's balance sheet and expanding the size of the central bank's balance sheet. The objectives of quantitative easing monetary policy include overcoming deflation, stabilizing price levels, restoring the function of the credit system, maintaining the stability of the financial system, stimulating investment and consumption, and restoring economic growth. Its transmission mechanism is divided into three types: consumption, investment and export increase in GDP. Japan is the first country in the world to use quantitative easing monetary policy. In 2001, in order to reverse Japan's deflation and economic recession since the 1990s, when the zero interest rate policy has failed, The Bank of Japan decided to implement quantitative easing. The policy, which lasted until 2006, has given a boost to Japan's economy. Japan's economy was hit hard again during the 2008 global financial crisis, prompting the Bank of Japan to turn again to the straw of quantitative easing in 2010. In December 2012, Japan's new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, took office. A series of bold, aggressive economic stimulus measures, known as Abenomics, has been launched, including unprecedented massive quantitative easing. The implementation of Japan's new round of quantitative easing monetary policy has attracted the attention of all countries around the world, and has also provided new materials for the theoretical study of quantitative easing monetary policy. Based on the existing theoretical system, this paper systematically analyzes the effectiveness and transmission mechanism of Japan's new round of quantitative easing monetary policy. The study found that Japan's new round of quantitative easing monetary policy has played a role in overcoming deflation and stabilizing price levels, but it has played an important role in restoring the function of the credit system, maintaining the stability of the financial system, and stimulating investment and consumption. Recovery of economic growth and other aspects of the role is not obvious. At the same time, during the implementation of Japan's new round of quantitative easing monetary policy, it is affected by the balance sheet position of the private sector and financial institutions, as well as by the economic structure in which Japan's raw materials are mainly dependent on imports. Part of the transmission mechanism of quantitative easing monetary policy is ineffective. Based on the above research, this paper concludes that the effect of quantitative easing monetary policy as a policy tool is relatively limited, the Japanese government must take monetary policy and fiscal policy, Other policies, such as structural reform policies, can effectively boost Japan's economy. Finally, the trend and potential risks of Japanese economy in the future are analyzed and forecasted.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國社會(huì)科學(xué)院研究生院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F823.13

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