【摘要】：中國(guó)與東盟國(guó)家正式對(duì)話以來(lái),雙邊進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,雙邊經(jīng)貿(mào)合作日益緊密,彼此貿(mào)易合作伙伴地位不斷提升。但中國(guó)東盟國(guó)家整體金融發(fā)展水平較低,而且存在兩極分化的現(xiàn)象,推進(jìn)區(qū)域金融合作的進(jìn)程緩慢。那么,在推進(jìn)中國(guó)東盟貿(mào)易開(kāi)放的進(jìn)程中,金融發(fā)展能否受到影響?受到怎樣的影響?這是本文要重點(diǎn)討論的問(wèn)題。 首先,本文梳理了貿(mào)易開(kāi)放對(duì)金融發(fā)展的影響原理。其次,本文就中國(guó)東盟國(guó)家貿(mào)易開(kāi)放和金融發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,先具體分析中國(guó)東盟11國(guó)的貿(mào)易開(kāi)放度和貿(mào)易自由度以及中國(guó)東盟雙邊貿(mào)易情況。然后對(duì)中國(guó)東盟國(guó)家的貨幣深度、資金配置效率、銀行中介規(guī)模和效率、證券中介規(guī)模和效率進(jìn)行具體分析,并采用主成分分析法,計(jì)算出中國(guó)東盟部分國(guó)家金融發(fā)展水平,因子分析結(jié)果顯示,中國(guó)東盟各國(guó)金融發(fā)展水平兩極分化,而且尚未出現(xiàn)趨同的情況。 再次,Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和面板回歸模型結(jié)果顯示,中國(guó)東盟間貿(mào)易開(kāi)放與金融發(fā)展之間存在長(zhǎng)期協(xié)整關(guān)系,貿(mào)易開(kāi)放對(duì)金融發(fā)展規(guī)模和效率均有一定的促進(jìn)作用,但影響并不顯著。為了考察不同金融發(fā)展比較優(yōu)勢(shì)的影響,模型中加入貿(mào)易開(kāi)放度與人均GDP的交叉項(xiàng),結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)交叉項(xiàng)指標(biāo)很不顯著,缺乏解釋力。為具體分析中國(guó)東盟間貿(mào)易開(kāi)放對(duì)各國(guó)金融發(fā)展規(guī)模和發(fā)展效率的影響程度的不同,采用變系數(shù)模型進(jìn)行分析,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易開(kāi)放對(duì)金融發(fā)展規(guī)模的推動(dòng)作用大于對(duì)金融發(fā)展效率的促進(jìn)作用,具體來(lái)看,與其他國(guó)家相比,中國(guó)東盟間貿(mào)易開(kāi)放對(duì)中國(guó)、老撾和越南的金融發(fā)展的推動(dòng)作用最大。 最后,在實(shí)證結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上提出了完善貿(mào)易開(kāi)放對(duì)金融發(fā)展影響渠道的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the formal dialogue between China and ASEAN countries, the scale of bilateral import and export trade has been continuously expanded, bilateral economic and trade cooperation has become increasingly close, and the status of trade partners between China and ASEAN has been continuously upgraded. However, the overall level of financial development in ASEAN countries is low, and the phenomenon of polarization exists, and the process of promoting regional financial cooperation is slow. So, can the financial development be affected in the process of promoting the opening of trade between China and ASEAN? How are they affected? This is an important issue to be discussed in this paper. First, this article combs the trade opening to the financial development influence principle. Secondly, this paper analyzes the current situation of trade openness and financial development of China-ASEAN countries, and analyzes the trade openness and degree of freedom of China-ASEAN 11 countries and the bilateral trade situation of China-ASEAN. Then the paper analyzes the depth of currency, the efficiency of capital allocation, the scale and efficiency of bank intermediation, the scale and efficiency of securities intermediation, and calculates the financial development level of some ASEAN countries by principal component analysis. The results of factor analysis show that the financial development level of ASEAN countries is polarized and there is no convergence. Thirdly, the results of Johansen cointegration test and panel regression model show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between China-ASEAN trade opening and financial development, and trade liberalization has a certain role in promoting the scale and efficiency of financial development, but the impact is not significant. In order to investigate the influence of comparative advantage of different financial development, the cross-terms of trade openness and per capita GDP are added to the model. The results show that the cross-terms are not significant and lack of explanatory power. In order to analyze the differences in the influence of the opening of trade between China and ASEAN on the scale and efficiency of financial development, the variable coefficient model is used to analyze. It is found that trade opening plays a greater role in promoting the scale of financial development than in promoting the efficiency of financial development. In particular, compared with other countries, the trade opening between China and ASEAN is of great importance to China. Laos and Vietnam are the biggest drivers of financial development. Finally, on the basis of empirical conclusions, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to improve the channels of trade opening to financial development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F752.7;F832

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本文編號(hào)：2399283