【摘要】：外匯儲備不僅是衡量一國經(jīng)濟實力和金融實力的重要指標之一,而且它也是國際金融領域的重要研究對象。外匯儲備在國家金融制度中起著“緩沖器”的作用,能夠調(diào)節(jié)國際收支、保持匯率穩(wěn)定、維護本幣國際信譽、增強抗風險波動能力。20世紀90年代后,亞洲主要發(fā)展中國家外匯儲備迅速增長,外匯儲備存量以及增長速度在全球范圍內(nèi)都處于較高水平。數(shù)據(jù)顯示,截止2012年末,全球外匯儲備達到109360億美元,亞洲主要發(fā)展中國家的外匯儲備超過4萬億美元,占全球的60%以上。亞洲發(fā)展中國家的外匯儲備迅速增長的勢態(tài)一直為學術(shù)界關注,尤其在97年亞洲金融危機后,亞洲主要發(fā)展中國家的外匯儲備增速出現(xiàn)明顯變化,增長率出現(xiàn)爆發(fā)式增長。學術(shù)界對此情況進行了深入的研究并且也有了許多解釋。其中一個重要觀點認為,20世紀90年代后頻發(fā)的金融危機導致各國預防性動機增強是外匯儲備增加的主要原因。直觀上看,亞洲主要發(fā)展中國家外匯儲備的爆發(fā)式增長主要集中在金融危機之后,因此我們可以認為預防性動機在其中扮演了重要角色。隨著亞洲發(fā)展中國家經(jīng)濟的不斷發(fā)展,其世界引擎的經(jīng)濟地位越來越重要,我們應該分析其外匯儲備的增長趨勢及原因,進而找出其背后深層次的持有動因變化。本文主要利用外匯儲備持有動機理論考察了亞洲發(fā)展中各國的外匯儲備持有的交易性動機和預防性動機,在此基礎上建立預防性動機的分析框架,分析了預防性動機持有儲備行為在金融危機沖擊下的變化。本文還借鑒PPP理論,引入?yún)R率偏離度變量用以考察亞洲主要發(fā)展中國家的新重商主義動機。通過對中國、印度、印度尼西亞、馬來西亞、泰國、柬埔寨、越南、老撾、哈薩克斯坦等10國1995年至2012年的面板數(shù)據(jù)研究,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)在亞洲主要發(fā)展中國家外匯儲備持有動因中,交易性動機始終存在,且與外匯儲備有正向關系。預防性動機對外匯儲備有重要影響,且現(xiàn)代預防性動機理論占據(jù)主導作用,出口收入波動在亞洲發(fā)展中國家中與外匯儲備的聯(lián)系并不明顯。在龐大人口帶來的沉重就業(yè)壓力下,亞洲主要發(fā)展中國家確實存一定新重商主義動機。
[Abstract]:Foreign exchange reserve is not only an important index to measure a country's economic and financial strength, but also an important research object in the field of international finance. Foreign exchange reserves act as a "buffer" in the national financial system. They can regulate the balance of payments, maintain exchange rate stability, maintain the international reputation of their currencies, and enhance their ability to resist risk fluctuations. The foreign exchange reserves of major developing countries in Asia are growing rapidly, and the stock of foreign exchange reserves and the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves are all at a high level around the world. Global foreign exchange reserves stood at $10.936 trillion at the end of 2012, with Asia's leading developing countries holding more than $4 trillion, or more than 60 percent of the world's total, according to data. The rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in developing countries in Asia has always been concerned by the academic circles. Especially after the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves of major developing countries in Asia has changed obviously, and the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves has exploded. The academic circle has carried on the thorough research to this situation and also has many explanations. One of the important arguments is that the increasing precautionary motivation caused by frequent financial crises after the 1990s is the main reason for the increase of foreign exchange reserves. Intuitively, the explosive growth of foreign exchange reserves in major developing countries in Asia is mainly after the financial crisis, so we can assume that precautionary motivation plays an important role in it. With the economic development of developing countries in Asia, the economic status of its world engine is becoming more and more important. We should analyze the growth trend and reasons of its foreign exchange reserves, and then find out the underlying changes in the driving forces of its holding. Based on the theory of foreign exchange reserve holding motivation, this paper examines the transaction motivation and precautionary motivation of foreign exchange reserve holding in developing countries in Asia, and then establishes the analytical framework of precautionary motivation. This paper analyzes the change of precautionary motive reserve holding behavior under the impact of financial crisis. This paper also uses PPP theory for reference and introduces exchange rate deviation variables to investigate the new mercantilist motivation of major developing countries in Asia. Through panel data from 1995 to 2012 in 10 countries, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Kazakhstan, etc., We find that in the main developing countries in Asia, the motive of foreign exchange reserve holding exists all the time and has a positive relationship with the foreign exchange reserve. Precautionary motivation plays an important role in foreign exchange reserves, and modern precautionary motivation theory plays a dominant role. The relationship between export earnings fluctuations and foreign exchange reserves in developing countries in Asia is not obvious. Under the heavy pressure of employment from a large population, major developing countries in Asia do have some new mercantilist motives.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6

【共引文獻】

相關期刊論文 前2條

1 陸路;;對我國外匯儲備結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的思考[J];中國商界(下半月);2009年06期

2 宋軍;毛偉;;多資產(chǎn)的外匯儲備幣種配置[J];系統(tǒng)工程理論與實踐;2014年03期

相關博士學位論文 前1條

1 沈姍姍;中國外匯儲備結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化研究[D];華中科技大學;2010年

相關碩士學位論文 前10條

1 姜娟;中國外匯儲備規(guī)模的適度性研究[D];暨南大學;2011年

2 李棟;我國國際儲備結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化分析[D];山東大學;2011年

3 寇永金;中國外匯儲備幣種結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化研究[D];陜西師范大學;2011年

4 方琳;中國外匯儲備貨幣結(jié)構(gòu)管理問題研究[D];湖南大學;2006年

5 羅花;中國外匯儲備適度規(guī)模的實證分析[D];中南大學;2007年

6 李權(quán);我國外匯儲備增長的宏觀經(jīng)濟效應研究[D];重慶大學;2007年

7 王大生;基于MMVD模型的我國美元外匯儲備資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整研究[D];湖南大學;2007年

8 郎維維;中國外匯儲備結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化研究[D];天津財經(jīng)大學;2008年

9 王麗萍;我國外匯儲備適度規(guī)模研究[D];河南大學;2008年

10 李亞麗;我國外匯儲備適度規(guī)模的實證分析[D];中南大學;2008年

，

本文編號：2305679