【摘要】：外匯儲(chǔ)備不僅是衡量一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力和金融實(shí)力的重要指標(biāo)之一,而且它也是國(guó)際金融領(lǐng)域的重要研究對(duì)象。外匯儲(chǔ)備在國(guó)家金融制度中起著“緩沖器”的作用,能夠調(diào)節(jié)國(guó)際收支、保持匯率穩(wěn)定、維護(hù)本幣國(guó)際信譽(yù)、增強(qiáng)抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)波動(dòng)能力。20世紀(jì)90年代后,亞洲主要發(fā)展中國(guó)家外匯儲(chǔ)備迅速增長(zhǎng),外匯儲(chǔ)備存量以及增長(zhǎng)速度在全球范圍內(nèi)都處于較高水平。數(shù)據(jù)顯示,截止2012年末,全球外匯儲(chǔ)備達(dá)到109360億美元,亞洲主要發(fā)展中國(guó)家的外匯儲(chǔ)備超過(guò)4萬(wàn)億美元,占全球的60%以上。亞洲發(fā)展中國(guó)家的外匯儲(chǔ)備迅速增長(zhǎng)的勢(shì)態(tài)一直為學(xué)術(shù)界關(guān)注,尤其在97年亞洲金融危機(jī)后,亞洲主要發(fā)展中國(guó)家的外匯儲(chǔ)備增速出現(xiàn)明顯變化,增長(zhǎng)率出現(xiàn)爆發(fā)式增長(zhǎng)。學(xué)術(shù)界對(duì)此情況進(jìn)行了深入的研究并且也有了許多解釋。其中一個(gè)重要觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為,20世紀(jì)90年代后頻發(fā)的金融危機(jī)導(dǎo)致各國(guó)預(yù)防性動(dòng)機(jī)增強(qiáng)是外匯儲(chǔ)備增加的主要原因。直觀上看,亞洲主要發(fā)展中國(guó)家外匯儲(chǔ)備的爆發(fā)式增長(zhǎng)主要集中在金融危機(jī)之后,因此我們可以認(rèn)為預(yù)防性動(dòng)機(jī)在其中扮演了重要角色。隨著亞洲發(fā)展中國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展,其世界引擎的經(jīng)濟(jì)地位越來(lái)越重要,我們應(yīng)該分析其外匯儲(chǔ)備的增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)及原因,進(jìn)而找出其背后深層次的持有動(dòng)因變化。本文主要利用外匯儲(chǔ)備持有動(dòng)機(jī)理論考察了亞洲發(fā)展中各國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備持有的交易性動(dòng)機(jī)和預(yù)防性動(dòng)機(jī),在此基礎(chǔ)上建立預(yù)防性動(dòng)機(jī)的分析框架,分析了預(yù)防性動(dòng)機(jī)持有儲(chǔ)備行為在金融危機(jī)沖擊下的變化。本文還借鑒PPP理論,引入?yún)R率偏離度變量用以考察亞洲主要發(fā)展中國(guó)家的新重商主義動(dòng)機(jī)。通過(guò)對(duì)中國(guó)、印度、印度尼西亞、馬來(lái)西亞、泰國(guó)、柬埔寨、越南、老撾、哈薩克斯坦等10國(guó)1995年至2012年的面板數(shù)據(jù)研究,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)在亞洲主要發(fā)展中國(guó)家外匯儲(chǔ)備持有動(dòng)因中,交易性動(dòng)機(jī)始終存在,且與外匯儲(chǔ)備有正向關(guān)系。預(yù)防性動(dòng)機(jī)對(duì)外匯儲(chǔ)備有重要影響,且現(xiàn)代預(yù)防性動(dòng)機(jī)理論占據(jù)主導(dǎo)作用,出口收入波動(dòng)在亞洲發(fā)展中國(guó)家中與外匯儲(chǔ)備的聯(lián)系并不明顯。在龐大人口帶來(lái)的沉重就業(yè)壓力下,亞洲主要發(fā)展中國(guó)家確實(shí)存一定新重商主義動(dòng)機(jī)。
[Abstract]:Foreign exchange reserve is not only an important index to measure a country's economic and financial strength, but also an important research object in the field of international finance. Foreign exchange reserves act as a "buffer" in the national financial system. They can regulate the balance of payments, maintain exchange rate stability, maintain the international reputation of their currencies, and enhance their ability to resist risk fluctuations. The foreign exchange reserves of major developing countries in Asia are growing rapidly, and the stock of foreign exchange reserves and the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves are all at a high level around the world. Global foreign exchange reserves stood at $10.936 trillion at the end of 2012, with Asia's leading developing countries holding more than $4 trillion, or more than 60 percent of the world's total, according to data. The rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in developing countries in Asia has always been concerned by the academic circles. Especially after the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves of major developing countries in Asia has changed obviously, and the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves has exploded. The academic circle has carried on the thorough research to this situation and also has many explanations. One of the important arguments is that the increasing precautionary motivation caused by frequent financial crises after the 1990s is the main reason for the increase of foreign exchange reserves. Intuitively, the explosive growth of foreign exchange reserves in major developing countries in Asia is mainly after the financial crisis, so we can assume that precautionary motivation plays an important role in it. With the economic development of developing countries in Asia, the economic status of its world engine is becoming more and more important. We should analyze the growth trend and reasons of its foreign exchange reserves, and then find out the underlying changes in the driving forces of its holding. Based on the theory of foreign exchange reserve holding motivation, this paper examines the transaction motivation and precautionary motivation of foreign exchange reserve holding in developing countries in Asia, and then establishes the analytical framework of precautionary motivation. This paper analyzes the change of precautionary motive reserve holding behavior under the impact of financial crisis. This paper also uses PPP theory for reference and introduces exchange rate deviation variables to investigate the new mercantilist motivation of major developing countries in Asia. Through panel data from 1995 to 2012 in 10 countries, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Kazakhstan, etc., We find that in the main developing countries in Asia, the motive of foreign exchange reserve holding exists all the time and has a positive relationship with the foreign exchange reserve. Precautionary motivation plays an important role in foreign exchange reserves, and modern precautionary motivation theory plays a dominant role. The relationship between export earnings fluctuations and foreign exchange reserves in developing countries in Asia is not obvious. Under the heavy pressure of employment from a large population, major developing countries in Asia do have some new mercantilist motives.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6

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本文編號(hào)：2305679