【摘要】： 2004年以來,在人民幣升值預(yù)期的帶動下,我國資本項(xiàng)目和經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目連年雙順差,致使我國外匯儲備每年以2000億美元的速度攀升,廣義貨幣量也隨之快速上漲。在資金面寬松的影響下,國內(nèi)金融機(jī)構(gòu)存款加速度增長,資產(chǎn)被動膨脹。這又造成信貸市場過度競爭,金融機(jī)構(gòu)投資收益不斷下降,放大了信用風(fēng)險和利率風(fēng)險。在多余資金的推動下,股票、房地產(chǎn)等資產(chǎn)價格不斷飆升,我國再次出現(xiàn)通貨膨脹現(xiàn)象。然而自2007年4月開始,以美國新世紀(jì)房屋貸款公司申請破產(chǎn)保護(hù)為開端,美國次級按揭貸款危機(jī)的爆發(fā)并逐步惡化,引發(fā)全球范圍的金融動蕩。受次資危機(jī)的影響,再加上中央銀行連續(xù)運(yùn)用從緊的貨幣政策調(diào)控過剩流動性,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)又出現(xiàn)資金面緊張,流動性萎縮的情況。 只要人民幣存在升值預(yù)期,基礎(chǔ)貨幣供應(yīng)就不會停止,我國國內(nèi)流動性過剩的根基就不會動搖,而暫時的流動性不足只是受次貸危機(jī)影響的短期現(xiàn)象,未來經(jīng)濟(jì)一旦復(fù)蘇,中國政府還將面臨著更加巨大的流動性過剩壓力,流動性過剩問題將仍將是中國社會的一個長期性問題。本文運(yùn)用定性分析與定量分析、規(guī)范分析和實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的方法,對流動性過剩的理論基礎(chǔ)及其成因的作用機(jī)理進(jìn)行了研究,探討了我國流動性過剩的現(xiàn)狀和存在的問題,并借鑒國外經(jīng)驗(yàn),結(jié)合中國實(shí)際,就未來中國可能面臨更大一輪的流動性過剩時,提出了一些防范和化解流動性過剩的相關(guān)政策建議。本文對流動性過剩的研究主要目的也正在于此。 本文共分為五章。第一章為緒論,對選題的背景和意義進(jìn)行了分析和說明,對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究情況按照研究時間和研究角度分類,分別進(jìn)行了整理和歸納,基本能夠涵蓋本課題的前人研究成果。第二章的內(nèi)容主要是概括了我國流動性問題現(xiàn)狀,界定了流動性相關(guān)金融理論和我國流動性過剩的表現(xiàn)及對經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。第三章的主要內(nèi)容是分析我國流動性過剩問題形成原因。通過數(shù)據(jù)和表格,詳細(xì)揭示我國此次流動性過剩成因,為化解我國流動性過剩問題提供依據(jù)。第四章的主要內(nèi)容是采用定性、定量和因果分析法構(gòu)建計(jì)量模型,對影響流動性過剩的因素進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)和分析。中央銀行的貨幣、商業(yè)銀行的貨幣、存款和在流通市場上交易的證券是金融部門提供流動性的三種形式。本文通過選取存貸差作為因變量,用以反映流動性過剩,上證市值、外匯占款和貨幣供應(yīng)量作為變量,反映影響流動性過剩的有代表性的因素,建立模型,分析各變量對流動性的影響程度,進(jìn)一步為提出防范化解流動性剩對策提供數(shù)據(jù)支持。第五章的主要內(nèi)容是根據(jù)計(jì)量模型分析得出的結(jié)論,從宏觀和微觀兩個層面提出防范化解我國流動性過剩問題的對策建議。
[Abstract]:Since 2004, driven by the expectation of RMB appreciation, China's capital account and current account have been running double surpluses for years, which has led to the increase of China's foreign exchange reserves at the rate of $200 billion per year, and the rapid increase in the amount of broad currency. Under the influence of loose capital, domestic financial institutions have accelerated deposit growth and passive expansion of assets. This, in turn, leads to excessive competition in the credit market and declining investment returns of financial institutions, magnifying credit risk and interest rate risk. Driven by excess funds, the prices of stocks, real estate and other assets are soaring, and inflation is again appearing in our country. However, since April 2007, with the new century housing loan companies applying for bankruptcy protection, the outbreak and deterioration of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has caused global financial turmoil. Under the influence of the secondary capital crisis and the continuous use of tight monetary policy by the central bank to regulate excess liquidity, China's economy is facing a situation of tight capital and shrinking liquidity. As long as the RMB is expected to appreciate, the basic money supply will not stop, and the foundation of China's excess domestic liquidity will not waver. The temporary liquidity shortage is only a short-term phenomenon affected by the subprime mortgage crisis. Once the economy recovers in the future, The Chinese government will also face greater pressure on excess liquidity, which will remain a long-term problem in Chinese society. Using the methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis, normative analysis and empirical analysis, this paper studies the theoretical basis of liquidity excess and its mechanism of formation, and probes into the present situation and existing problems of liquidity excess in China. Based on the experience of foreign countries and the reality of China, this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions on how to prevent and resolve the excess liquidity in the future when China may face a larger round of excess liquidity. The main purpose of this paper is to study excess liquidity. This paper is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, the background and significance of the topic are analyzed and explained, the related research situation at home and abroad is classified according to the research time and research angle, respectively, which can basically cover the previous research results of this topic. The second chapter mainly summarizes the current situation of liquidity problems in China, defines the liquidity related financial theory and the performance of excess liquidity in China and its impact on the economy. The third chapter is to analyze the causes of excess liquidity in China. By means of data and tables, the causes of excess liquidity in China are revealed in detail, which provides the basis for solving the problem of excess liquidity in China. The fourth chapter uses qualitative, quantitative and causality analysis to construct a quantitative model to test and analyze the factors affecting excess liquidity. Central bank money, commercial bank money, deposits, and securities traded in the circulation market are three forms of liquidity provided by the financial sector. By selecting the difference between deposit and loan as dependent variable to reflect excess liquidity, market value of Shanghai Stock Exchange, foreign exchange and money supply as variables, this paper sets up a model to reflect the representative factors affecting excess liquidity. The influence of each variable on liquidity is analyzed to provide data support for preventing and resolving liquidity surplus. The fifth chapter is based on the conclusions of econometric model analysis, from the macro and micro two levels to prevent and resolve the problem of excess liquidity in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2009
【分類號】：F224;F822.2

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 劉超;中國流動性過剩治理中總量調(diào)節(jié)工具及其運(yùn)用[D];天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2011年

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本文編號：2259657