【摘要】：自2008年起,國際金融危機席卷全球并不斷蔓延擴散,美國大批的金融集團如雷曼兄弟、華盛頓互惠銀行、內(nèi)華達州銀行等相繼倒閉。歐洲債務危機不斷升級,隨著希臘、葡萄牙、西班牙等國家主權信用評級相繼下調(diào),以及歐洲股市不斷暴跌,整個歐盟地區(qū)都陷入危機之中。影子銀行被認為是此次金融危機爆發(fā)的導火索,并且其固有脆弱性和監(jiān)管上的空白給金融穩(wěn)定帶來了巨大的挑戰(zhàn),從而受到各級政府及學術界的廣泛關注。 在我國,由于金融市場尚處于發(fā)展階段,金融創(chuàng)新與西方發(fā)達國家相比仍有一定的差距,我國的影子銀行也呈現(xiàn)出中國特有的性質。我國尚不存在一般意義上的影子銀行,我國的影子銀行主要是一些有銀行之實但無銀行之名的金融機構及金融業(yè)務,這些金融機構包括民間借貸機構、典當行、私募股權基金、小額貸款公司、融資性擔保機構和農(nóng)村資金互助機構等。 我國影子銀行體系正處于快速發(fā)展階段,所以研究它對貨幣政策的影響具有重要的理論和實踐意義。首先,貨幣政策是貨幣市場的核心,次貸危機過后,對于各經(jīng)濟體的經(jīng)濟復蘇以及宏觀目標的實現(xiàn),貨幣政策調(diào)控已然成為一個重要的工具。通過探究影子銀行對貨幣政策的影響,激發(fā)政府對現(xiàn)有貨幣政策的深思,不斷地調(diào)整貨幣政策的方向使其適應我國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,從而建立一個成熟與穩(wěn)定的貨幣政策體系。其次,通過對影子銀行的研究,我們可以利用其好的一面來服務我國的金融市場,利用其強大的融資功能來填補我國商業(yè)銀行融資的不足,并推進我國金融創(chuàng)新步伐；我們也應規(guī)避其壞的一面來維護我國金融市場的穩(wěn)定,對于其釋放的大量風險,尋找有效的貨幣政策來加以控制,從根源上化解其存在的問題。最后,我國影子銀行的發(fā)展尚處于初步階段,還沒有觸及到西方發(fā)達國家復雜的金融創(chuàng)新工具,研究國內(nèi)外的影子銀行對我國金融市場的創(chuàng)新發(fā)展有重大的意義。 本文通過理論與實證相結合的方式,研究了影子銀行對我國貨幣政策效果的影響。首先,本文詳細介紹了影子銀行相關概念,包括影子銀行的界定、分類以及成因,讓人們了解影子銀行的內(nèi)涵,為后面的內(nèi)容做鋪墊。然后,本文從貨幣政策工具“三大法寶”和最終目標兩個方面,詳細闡述了影子銀行對我國貨幣政策效果影響的理論分析,理論結果是：影子銀行會削弱貨幣政策工具“三大法寶”的作用力,并且不利于我國貨幣政策最終目標的實現(xiàn)。隨后,本文通過實證的方式對前面的理論分析進行證實,本文建立兩個VAR模型,模型1中沒有加入影子銀行指標而模型2中加入影子銀行指標,通過對比兩個模型的脈沖響應圖及方差分解結果,得出了與理論分析相吻合的實證結論：影子銀行削弱了數(shù)量型貨幣政策工具的實施效果,具體為削弱了公開市場操作和法定存款準備金的實施力度,并且不利于我國貨幣政策最終目標的實現(xiàn)。最后,根據(jù)本文理論結果和實證結果,分別在影子銀行的發(fā)展和完善貨幣政策體系上提出了相應的政策建議。 本文的創(chuàng)新點在于：現(xiàn)有的文獻大多數(shù)是基于完善影子銀行監(jiān)管方面的研究,或者是從金融穩(wěn)定方面進行研究,從貨幣政策角度進行研究的較少,然而貨幣政策是我國宏觀經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的指引燈,本文將影子銀行和貨幣政策兩者聯(lián)系起來分析�；谖覈厥獾膰�,通過理論與實證相結合的方式,分析了影子銀行對我國貨幣政策效果的影響,為適當?shù)匕l(fā)展我國影子銀行、完善我國貨幣政策提供了現(xiàn)實依據(jù)。 由于作者水平有限,本文也存在一些不足之處：第一,在影子銀行規(guī)模測算上存在一定的誤差,由于民間借貸、私募股權基金等業(yè)務也占據(jù)了影子銀行一定的比例,而這些數(shù)據(jù)無法獲得,所以會造成統(tǒng)計上的誤差；第二,在指標選取上,如貨幣政策工具“三大法寶”中的再貼現(xiàn)率,由于不具有代表性,沒有加入到模型中,以及貨幣政策中介目標,由于模型的平穩(wěn)性要求,也未能加入到模型中進行分析；第三,本文對貨幣政策的研究還不夠深入,由于對貨幣政策及影子銀行理論的掌握還不夠透徹,未能全面地進行分析,也需要日后進一步改進。
[Abstract]:Since 2008, the international financial crisis has swept the world and spread, a large number of U.S. financial groups such as Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual Bank, Nevada Bank and so on have collapsed. The whole EU region is in crisis. Shadow banking is regarded as the trigger of the financial crisis, and its inherent fragility and regulatory gaps have brought great challenges to financial stability, which has attracted wide attention from governments and academia at all levels.
In our country, because the financial market is still in the stage of development, there is still a certain gap between financial innovation and western developed countries, and the shadow banks in our country also show the characteristics of China. And financial business, these financial institutions include private lending institutions, pawnbrokers, private equity funds, small loan companies, financing guarantee institutions and rural mutual funds institutions.
China's shadow banking system is in a rapid development stage, so it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study its impact on monetary policy. Firstly, monetary policy is the core of the monetary market. After the subprime mortgage crisis, monetary policy regulation has become an important factor for the economic recovery and the realization of macro-economic goals of the economies. By exploring the influence of shadow banking on monetary policy, we can stimulate the government to think deeply about the existing monetary policy, constantly adjust the direction of monetary policy to adapt to China's economic development, thus establishing a mature and stable monetary policy system. Serving China's financial market, we should make use of its powerful financing function to fill the financing deficiencies of China's commercial banks and promote the pace of financial innovation; we should also avoid its bad side to maintain the stability of China's financial market, for its release of a large number of risks, to find effective monetary policy to control, from the root to resolve. Finally, the development of shadow banking in China is still in its infancy and has not touched the complicated financial innovation tools of western developed countries. It is of great significance to study the shadow banking at home and abroad for the innovation and development of China's financial market.
This paper studies the effect of shadow banking on China's monetary policy through theoretical and empirical methods. First of all, this paper introduces the related concepts of shadow banking, including the definition, classification and causes of formation of shadow banking, so that people can understand the connotation of shadow banking and pave the way for the latter. This paper elaborates on the theoretical analysis of the influence of shadow banking on the effect of monetary policy in China from two aspects: the "three magic weapons" and the ultimate goal. The theoretical result is that shadow banking will weaken the effect of the "three magic weapons" of monetary policy instruments and is not conducive to the realization of the ultimate goal of monetary policy in China. By comparing the impulse response diagram and variance decomposition results of the two models, we get the empirical conclusion that the shadow bank weakens the quantity goods. The implementation effect of monetary policy tools is to weaken the implementation of open market operation and statutory deposit reserve, and is not conducive to the realization of the ultimate goal of monetary policy in China.
The innovation of this paper lies in: most of the existing literature is based on the study of perfecting the shadow banking supervision, or from the aspect of financial stability, less from the perspective of monetary policy. However, monetary policy is the guiding light of macroeconomic stability and development in China. This paper links the shadow banking and monetary policy. Based on China's special national conditions, this paper analyzes the effect of shadow banking on China's monetary policy through the combination of theory and empirical analysis, which provides a realistic basis for the proper development of shadow banking and the improvement of China's monetary policy.
Because the author's level is limited, there are also some shortcomings in this paper. First, there are some errors in the measurement of the size of shadow banks. Because of private lending, private equity funds and other businesses also occupy a certain proportion of shadow banks, and these data can not be obtained, so it will cause statistical errors; second, in the selection of indicators, such as The rediscount rate in the "three magic weapons" of monetary policy instruments, which is not representative, has not been added to the model, and the intermediate target of monetary policy, has not been added to the model for analysis because of the stability requirements of the model; third, the study of monetary policy in this paper is not deep enough, because of the monetary policy and shadow banks. The mastery of theory is not thorough enough. It can not be comprehensively analyzed, and it needs further improvement in the future.
【學位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.3;F822.0

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