【摘要】：經(jīng)過多年努力,中國(guó)反洗錢制度體系的發(fā)展迅速,日臻完善。但是反洗錢制度的建設(shè)效果一直存在較大的爭(zhēng)議。由于反洗錢制度屬于公共產(chǎn)品,難以從直觀的數(shù)字感受到反洗錢制度建設(shè)對(duì)社會(huì)穩(wěn)定和發(fā)展產(chǎn)生的效果,而執(zhí)行反洗錢制度的商業(yè)機(jī)構(gòu)卻承擔(dān)巨額的執(zhí)行成本。這種隱蔽的社會(huì)效用與執(zhí)行成本所造成的巨大反差最終直接影響到整個(gè)反洗錢制度發(fā)展速度和與制度效力的發(fā)揮。在整個(gè)制度體系建設(shè)過程中,國(guó)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)借鑒起到了助推的作用,但從本質(zhì)上講,可以認(rèn)為中國(guó)反洗錢制度建設(shè)仍然采用了制度移植方式。采用“移植”的方式有利于制度體系的迅速搭建,但是,反洗錢制度并不是孤立存在的,它要受到當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)、政治、社會(huì)文化和法律體系等外部因素的影響,這些外部因素會(huì)使新移植制度在一定時(shí)期內(nèi)出現(xiàn)適應(yīng)性的問題,進(jìn)而影響到制度效力的發(fā)揮。若引入國(guó)對(duì)反洗錢制度高度的重視,并采取積極的措施推進(jìn),則反洗錢制度會(huì)通過自我學(xué)習(xí)的方式進(jìn)行制度演化,使反洗錢制度與原有的外部因素相適應(yīng),并通過自我強(qiáng)化機(jī)制促使制度不斷發(fā)展與完善。然而,反洗錢制度的演化并不必然導(dǎo)致制度的進(jìn)步,也有可能出現(xiàn)退化的情況,而且,反洗錢制度也具有路徑依賴的特征,自我強(qiáng)化機(jī)制作用下會(huì)出現(xiàn)路徑鎖定現(xiàn)象,進(jìn)而會(huì)影響到反洗錢制度在打擊上游犯罪和下游犯罪中的效果。本文從制度演化理論的角度分析中國(guó)反洗錢制度的變遷及其效力的發(fā)揮。并通過實(shí)證的方法檢驗(yàn)中國(guó)反洗錢制度的效力。全文的主要研究思路是：由于洗錢犯罪的整個(gè)過程包括上游犯罪和下游犯罪兩個(gè)部分,因此需要分別考察中國(guó)反洗錢可疑交易報(bào)告制度對(duì)上游犯罪和下游犯罪的影響,檢驗(yàn)中國(guó)反洗錢制度的效力。此外,反洗錢制度作為所有打擊犯罪制度的一部分,在經(jīng)過長(zhǎng)期的制度變遷之后,反洗錢制度從理論上應(yīng)該與原有制度融為一個(gè)制度體系,形成1+12的制度效果,基于這種思想,也需要對(duì)反洗錢制度建設(shè)前后對(duì)打擊犯罪的效果進(jìn)行對(duì)比。本文分七個(gè)章節(jié)。第一章主要介紹了研究的選題背景、基本知識(shí)、研究的主要內(nèi)容和創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)。第二章主要對(duì)現(xiàn)有相關(guān)反洗錢制度的研究的主題、方法、結(jié)論以及最新的進(jìn)展進(jìn)行了綜述,為研究尋找切入點(diǎn)和方法,體現(xiàn)本研究的邊際價(jià)值。第三章主要將演化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論引入到反洗錢制度移植、演化、路徑依賴與鎖定的分析。從外部制度環(huán)境與經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境等因素分析反洗錢制度演化對(duì)于效力發(fā)揮的重要性。在進(jìn)行這種分析時(shí)也考慮到反洗錢制度在演化的過程中可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)的路徑鎖定和導(dǎo)致路徑鎖定的因素,以及腐敗因素對(duì)于反洗錢制度演化的影響,因?yàn)榻y(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,在腐敗較為嚴(yán)重的國(guó)家,反洗錢制度的執(zhí)行效力具有反復(fù)性。第四章對(duì)反洗錢可疑交易報(bào)告制度的困境與效力進(jìn)行了理論和數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)比分析。影響可疑交易報(bào)告制度效力的問題主要是報(bào)告數(shù)量與質(zhì)量不匹配,而導(dǎo)致報(bào)告數(shù)量與質(zhì)量的不匹配因素既包括商業(yè)機(jī)構(gòu)執(zhí)行的能力和意愿,同時(shí)也包括可疑交易報(bào)告本身制度設(shè)計(jì)的因素。本章分析了區(qū)分“可疑”行為與“異�！毙袨閷�(duì)可疑交易報(bào)告數(shù)量的重要影響：又從“規(guī)則為本”與“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為本”的特點(diǎn)分析“可疑”與“異�！边@兩個(gè)規(guī)則對(duì)可疑交易報(bào)告制度的影響,以及影響其有效發(fā)揮的外部條件。此外,進(jìn)一步利用面板VAR的方法檢驗(yàn)中國(guó)可疑交易報(bào)告制度對(duì)上游犯罪(腐敗)的影響。由于該方法兼顧了面板數(shù)據(jù)和時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)處理的特點(diǎn),不僅可表明我國(guó)目前可疑交易報(bào)告制度在打擊腐敗方面還不具有顯著性的影響,而且發(fā)現(xiàn),執(zhí)行可疑交易報(bào)告制度的商業(yè)銀行除了付出制度建設(shè)成本外,并沒有出現(xiàn)制度影響銀行正常業(yè)務(wù)的情況。第五章檢驗(yàn)反洗錢制度整體上打擊上游犯罪(腐敗)的效果。本部分利用倍差法檢驗(yàn)反洗錢制度建設(shè)前與建設(shè)后打擊上游犯罪(腐敗)的效果,并得出反洗錢制度建設(shè)前后的確對(duì)上游腐敗犯罪有顯著的負(fù)面影響。同時(shí),分析了反洗錢制度存在行業(yè)和區(qū)域覆蓋不完全的現(xiàn)象,導(dǎo)致反洗錢制度存在“木桶效應(yīng)”。為了檢驗(yàn)反洗錢制度“木桶效應(yīng)”是否存在,本文同樣利用倍差法對(duì)比制度建立前后腐敗對(duì)居民儲(chǔ)蓄的影響,因?yàn)榉聪村X制度建立后,腐敗收益可能由原先進(jìn)入銀行清洗轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橥ㄟ^其他渠道清洗,非法收益間接進(jìn)入銀行系統(tǒng),改變銀行的存款結(jié)構(gòu),體現(xiàn)為居民儲(chǔ)蓄的變化。結(jié)論認(rèn)為“木桶效應(yīng)”確實(shí)存在。第六章從可疑交易報(bào)告制度打擊下游犯罪的角度檢驗(yàn)反洗錢制度的效力。鑒于下游犯罪總體規(guī)模難以衡量,本文選取了貿(mào)易洗錢作為下游犯罪的一個(gè)樣本。通過分別測(cè)算中國(guó)對(duì)15個(gè)貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)的進(jìn)口/出口記錄與15個(gè)貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)分別對(duì)中國(guó)的出口/進(jìn)口記錄所產(chǎn)生的差額(該差額被學(xué)者們稱為“貿(mào)易偽報(bào)”),用貿(mào)易偽報(bào)規(guī)模衡量中國(guó)貿(mào)易洗錢的規(guī)模。并以此檢驗(yàn)反洗錢可疑交易報(bào)告制度對(duì)貿(mào)易偽報(bào)的影響。此外,為了說明中國(guó)可疑交易報(bào)告制度也具有同樣的效果,本文選取了反洗錢制度合規(guī)程度與中國(guó)相似的國(guó)家進(jìn)行分析。結(jié)果表明,中國(guó)反洗錢可疑交易報(bào)告制度在打擊貿(mào)易洗錢方面可以發(fā)揮作用。第七章則對(duì)全文進(jìn)行了總結(jié),并對(duì)完善中國(guó)反洗錢制度提出了對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:After years of hard work, China's anti-money laundering system has developed rapidly and become more and more perfect. However, the effect of the anti-money laundering system has always been controversial. The huge contrast between the concealed social utility and the cost of execution has a direct impact on the development speed and effectiveness of the whole anti-money laundering system. It is believed that China's anti-money laundering system is still constructed by means of system transplantation. The adoption of "transplantation" is conducive to the rapid establishment of the system. However, the anti-money laundering system does not exist in isolation. It is affected by external factors such as local economy, politics, social culture and legal system. These external factors will lead to the new transplantation system. If the introducing country attaches great importance to the anti-money laundering system and takes positive measures to promote it, the anti-money laundering system will evolve through self-learning so as to make the anti-money laundering system adapt to the existing external factors and strengthen itself. However, the evolution of the anti-money laundering system does not necessarily lead to the progress of the system, but may also lead to degradation. Moreover, the anti-money laundering system also has the characteristics of path dependence. Under the effect of self-strengthening mechanism, path locking will occur, which will affect the anti-money laundering system in the upper reaches of the attack. This paper analyzes the changes of China's anti-money laundering system and its effectiveness from the perspective of the theory of institutional evolution, and examines the effectiveness of China's anti-money laundering system through empirical methods. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the impact of China's anti-money laundering suspicious transaction reporting system on upstream and downstream crimes, and to test the effectiveness of China's anti-money laundering system. Based on this idea, it is also necessary to compare the effects of anti-money laundering before and after the construction of the anti-money laundering system. This paper is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter mainly introduces the background of the research, basic knowledge, main contents and innovations of the research. The second chapter mainly focuses on the existing anti-money laundering related to the anti-money laundering. In the third chapter, the theory of evolutionary economics is introduced into the analysis of the transplantation, evolution, path dependence and lock-in of anti-money laundering system. The evolution of the anti-money laundering system is important for its effectiveness. This analysis also takes into account the possible path-locking and path-locking factors in the evolution of the anti-money laundering system, as well as the impact of corruption on the evolution of the anti-money laundering system, because statistical data show that in countries where corruption is more serious, anti-money laundering system is anti-corruption. Chapter 4 makes a theoretical and data comparison and Analysis on the dilemma and effectiveness of the anti-money laundering suspicious transaction reporting system. The ability and willingness to execute suspicious transaction reports also include the factors that influence the design of the system. This chapter analyzes the important influence of distinguishing suspicious and abnormal behaviors on the number of suspicious transaction reports, and analyzes the relationship between suspicious and abnormal rules from the characteristics of "rule-based" and "risk-based". In addition, the panel VAR method is further used to examine the impact of China's suspicious transaction reporting system on upstream crime (corruption). This method takes into account the characteristics of panel data and time series data processing, and not only shows that China's current suspicious transaction reporting system is effective. The suspicion system has no significant impact on the fight against corruption, and it is found that the commercial banks that implement the suspicious transaction reporting system have not affected the normal business of the banks except paying the cost of system construction. Chapter 5 examines the effect of the anti-money laundering system on the fight against upstream crimes (corruption) as a whole. The double difference method tests the effect of cracking down on the upstream crime (corruption) before and after the construction of the anti-money laundering system, and concludes that the anti-money laundering system has a significant negative impact on the upstream corruption crime. In order to test whether the "barrel effect" of anti-money laundering system exists, this paper also uses the multiple difference method to compare the effect of corruption on household savings before and after the establishment of the anti-money laundering system, because after the establishment of the anti-money laundering system, the income of corruption may change from entering the bank cleaning to cleaning through other channels, the illegal income enters the banking system indirectly and changes the banks. Chapter 6 examines the effectiveness of the anti-money laundering system from the perspective of the suspicious transaction reporting system against downstream crime. In view of the difficulty in measuring the overall scale of downstream crime, this paper selects trade money laundering as a sample of downstream crime. The difference between China's import/export records of 15 trading partner countries and those of 15 trading partner countries (the difference is called "trade falsehood" by scholars) is calculated, and the scale of China's trade money laundering is measured by the scale of trade falsehood. In addition, in order to illustrate that China's suspicious transaction reporting system has the same effect, this paper selects countries with similar compliance to China's anti-money laundering system for analysis. The results show that China's anti-money laundering suspicious transaction reporting system can play a role in combating trade money laundering. Chapter 7 is the full text. Summarize and put forward countermeasures and suggestions to improve China's anti money laundering system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.1;D922.281

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本文編號(hào)：2208368