【摘要】：浙江省地處中國(guó)東部沿海地區(qū)，有著豐富的地理資源，趁著改革開放的東風(fēng)，大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易發(fā)展迅速。但中國(guó)大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品在國(guó)際上沒(méi)有定價(jià)權(quán)，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力較弱，因此匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的影響就變得至關(guān)重要了。 自2005年7月21日，人民幣匯率調(diào)整成浮動(dòng)匯率制度后，人民幣就持續(xù)升值，直接影響了國(guó)際貿(mào)易收支，浙江大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易開始出現(xiàn)逆差，并逐年擴(kuò)大。匯率變動(dòng)通過(guò)大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口價(jià)格變化、企業(yè)利潤(rùn)變化、升值預(yù)期等途徑來(lái)影響大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口貿(mào)易。根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論，人民幣匯率升值會(huì)減少大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口而增加進(jìn)口，浙江農(nóng)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)企業(yè)可以借由人民幣匯率升值契機(jī)大力引進(jìn)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)專利和高科技生產(chǎn)設(shè)備，不僅有效提升企業(yè)實(shí)力促進(jìn)國(guó)內(nèi)農(nóng)業(yè)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展，還能使我國(guó)在國(guó)際大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品交易市場(chǎng)上具有一定價(jià)格控制權(quán)。 本文基于國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、國(guó)際貿(mào)易理論和計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的相關(guān)理論，并借鑒了國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)，通過(guò)五個(gè)章節(jié)進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)分析匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)浙江大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口貿(mào)易的影響。數(shù)據(jù)選用2005年到2012年浙江大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口的季度數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行建模分析，又分別對(duì)主要進(jìn)口品種大豆、原棉和食用植物油進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。 實(shí)證結(jié)果表明，人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)浙江大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口貿(mào)易是一個(gè)顯著影響的因素，但是當(dāng)期人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)進(jìn)口是呈現(xiàn)負(fù)效應(yīng)，存在J曲線效應(yīng)，即人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率變動(dòng)不會(huì)立即影響浙江大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的進(jìn)口，，而是在滯后半年開始促進(jìn)進(jìn)口；人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)原棉進(jìn)口的影響最顯著，第二是大豆的進(jìn)口，而對(duì)植物油的進(jìn)口效應(yīng)不確定。主要原因是食用油籽與植物油能相互替代，選擇進(jìn)口食用油籽比選擇直接進(jìn)口植物油更加具有經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。 最后基于人民幣匯率升值預(yù)期下對(duì)政府和企業(yè)提出了如何有效促進(jìn)浙江大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口貿(mào)易，借此進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口貿(mào)易，加快國(guó)內(nèi)農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展的相關(guān)政策建議。政府應(yīng)該鼓勵(lì)進(jìn)口帶動(dòng)出口，重點(diǎn)扶持大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品加工企業(yè)，加大財(cái)稅政策支持力度幫助企業(yè)降低生產(chǎn)成本。企業(yè)也應(yīng)該注重自身轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)，利用金融工具有效規(guī)避匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
[Abstract]:Zhejiang Province is located in the eastern coastal area of China, with abundant geographical resources, while the east wind of reform and opening up, the import and export trade of bulk agricultural products develops rapidly. But China's agricultural commodities have no international pricing power and are less competitive, so the impact of currency movements on agricultural commodities trade has become crucial. Since July 21, 2005, the RMB exchange rate has been adjusted to the floating exchange rate system, the RMB has continuously appreciated, which has directly affected the international trade balance. The import and export trade deficit of Zhejiang bulk agricultural products began to appear, and expanded year by year. Exchange rate changes affect the import trade of bulk agricultural products by means of changes in import prices of bulk agricultural products, changes in corporate profits and expectations of appreciation. According to economic theory, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will reduce the export of large agricultural products and increase imports. Zhejiang agricultural production enterprises can make use of the opportunity of RMB exchange rate appreciation to vigorously introduce agricultural products production patents and high-tech production equipment. It not only effectively promotes the strength of enterprises to promote the stable development of domestic agriculture, but also enables our country to have certain price control rights in the international market of bulk agricultural products. Based on the relevant theories of international economics, international trade and econometrics, and drawing on the relevant literature of scholars at home and abroad, this paper systematically analyzes the influence of exchange rate changes on the import trade of Zhejiang bulk agricultural products through five chapters. The data were modeled from 2005 to 2012, and the main imported varieties of soybean, raw cotton and edible vegetable oil were analyzed empirically. The empirical results show that the real effective exchange rate of RMB is a significant influence factor on the import trade of large agricultural products in Zhejiang Province, but the real effective exchange rate of RMB in the current period has a negative effect on imports, and there exists a J-curve effect. That is, the change in the real effective exchange rate of the RMB will not immediately affect the import of large agricultural products in Zhejiang, but will start to promote imports within half a year. The real effective exchange rate of the RMB has the most significant impact on the import of raw cotton, and the second is the import of soybeans. The import effect of vegetable oil is uncertain. The main reason is that edible oil seeds and vegetable oils can be replaced each other. It is more economical to choose imported edible oil seeds than to choose vegetable oils directly. Finally, based on the expectation of RMB exchange rate appreciation, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to effectively promote the import trade of large agricultural products in Zhejiang Province, so as to further promote the export trade of agricultural products and accelerate the development of domestic agriculture. The government should encourage imports to promote exports, focus on supporting large agricultural products processing enterprises, and increase fiscal and tax policy support to help enterprises reduce production costs. Enterprises should also pay attention to their own transformation and upgrading, using financial instruments to effectively avoid exchange rate risk.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F752.61;F323.7;F832.6

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 張家勝;趙玉;;人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)大豆進(jìn)口影響的實(shí)證分析[J];國(guó)際商務(wù)(對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào));2009年02期

2 鄭琰;人民幣匯率政策選擇對(duì)我國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口貿(mào)易的影響[J];國(guó)際貿(mào)易問(wèn)題;2000年04期

3 巴曙松;吳博;朱元倩;;關(guān)于實(shí)際有效匯率計(jì)算方法的比較與評(píng)述——兼論對(duì)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率指數(shù)的構(gòu)建[J];管理世界;2007年05期

4 包佳杰;單盈穎;;人民幣升值對(duì)浙江省出口貿(mào)易影響的實(shí)證分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇;2007年20期

5 萬(wàn)紅先;黃玉霞;;人民幣實(shí)際匯率波動(dòng)與中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的實(shí)證研究[J];技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì);2007年04期

6 馮沖;;人民幣升值對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口影響研究[J];農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)與科技;2007年04期

7 闕樹玉;王升;;人民幣匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口價(jià)格影響的研究[J];農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì);2010年05期

8 李岳云,宋海英;人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品國(guó)際貿(mào)易的影響機(jī)理[J];齊魯學(xué)刊;2004年04期

9 畢玉江;朱鐘棣;;人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)商品出口價(jià)格的傳遞效應(yīng)[J];世界經(jīng)濟(jì);2007年05期

10 武文;;匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)大米進(jìn)出口的影響分析[J];世界農(nóng)業(yè);2007年04期

本文編號(hào)：2199114