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目的國制度對中國出口和對外投資區(qū)位選擇影響研究

發(fā)布時間:2018-08-19 15:16
【摘要】:改革開放以來,我國經(jīng)濟實現(xiàn)了前所未有、世界罕見的持續(xù)快速增長,2012年經(jīng)濟總量已連續(xù)三年位居世界第二。自我國提出“走出去”發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略以來,商品和資本相繼走向國際市場,2012年我國成為世界第一貨物出口貿(mào)易大國,世界第二進(jìn)口貿(mào)易大國,世界第三資本輸出國,中國已成為名副其實的貿(mào)易大國和投資大國。從宏觀統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)來看,我國出口貿(mào)易主要分布在制度質(zhì)量較高的國家或地區(qū),向制度質(zhì)量較差國家或地區(qū)的出口較少。從對外投資地理結(jié)構(gòu)來看,我國企業(yè)主要投資于和我國制度距離較小的國家或地區(qū),對制度質(zhì)量較高國家或地區(qū)的投資處于逐步發(fā)展趨勢。有效的制度安排可以降低交易成本,提升產(chǎn)品競爭力,制度因素是國家富裕的最根本因素,遠(yuǎn)比資源、人口和資本等因素重要得多,制度是影響我國出口貿(mào)易和對外直接投資區(qū)位選擇的關(guān)鍵因素,我國到商品輸出和資本輸出不僅偏好于經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平比較高的國家或地區(qū),而且偏好于制度質(zhì)量比較高的國家或地區(qū)。制度安排對一國對外貿(mào)易和對外投資有重大影響,因此研究目的國制度對我國出口貿(mào)易和對外直接投資區(qū)位選擇的影響具有非常重要的理論意義和現(xiàn)實意義。 本文在分析中國出口貿(mào)易和對外投資歷史和現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,把制度分為正式制度和非正式制度兩大類,闡釋制度對出口貿(mào)易和對外投資的影響機理,通過設(shè)定相關(guān)指標(biāo)構(gòu)建制度的評價指標(biāo)體系,建立制度安排和中國出口貿(mào)易與對外投資之間關(guān)系的數(shù)理模型,利用中國出口貿(mào)易和對外投資的相關(guān)統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)從制度質(zhì)量和制度距離等方面進(jìn)行計量分析,分別研究制度對中國出口貿(mào)易和對外投資區(qū)位分布的影響,并對制度安排對中國出口貿(mào)易和對外投資模式選擇的綜合影響進(jìn)行研究,是對國際貿(mào)易學(xué)和制度經(jīng)濟學(xué)交叉學(xué)科理論的補充和發(fā)展。本文的創(chuàng)新點主要表現(xiàn)在: 第一,從貿(mào)易引力模型的微觀基礎(chǔ)出發(fā),利用效用函數(shù)把制度變量嵌入擴展貿(mào)易引力模型進(jìn)行推導(dǎo),并在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建計量模型,使用代表性國家或地區(qū)的宏觀統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),分別研究整體制度質(zhì)量、單項制度質(zhì)量以及單項制度質(zhì)量某一指標(biāo)對中國出口貿(mào)易地理結(jié)構(gòu)的影響,探求中國出口貿(mào)易地理分布的規(guī)律。本文對制度的分類更為精細(xì),對制度對我國出口貿(mào)易影響的研究更為全面和深入。 第二,通過把制度變量嵌入擴展投資引力模型進(jìn)行推導(dǎo),并在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建計量模型,利用代表性國家或地區(qū)的宏觀統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),分別實證研究整體制度質(zhì)量、單項制度質(zhì)量以及單項制度質(zhì)量某一指標(biāo)對中國對外直接投資區(qū)位選擇的影響,探求中國對外直接投資區(qū)位分布的內(nèi)在規(guī)律,本文對制度對我國對外直接投資區(qū)位選擇影響的研究更為全面和深入。 第三,從交易成本的視角探討中國出口貿(mào)易和對外直接投資區(qū)位選擇關(guān)系,中國出口貿(mào)易和對外投資分布在全球近兩百個國家或地區(qū),但是這種分布相對集中而且具有一定的內(nèi)在規(guī)律,現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)主要關(guān)注經(jīng)濟因素的影響,本文試圖分析制度因素對跨國經(jīng)營者進(jìn)行出口和投資模式選擇的影響。 第四,借鑒關(guān)稅同盟理論構(gòu)建語言對我國出口貿(mào)易和對外投資影響的理論模型,使用語言的人力投入和資本投入作為語言成本的代理變量,實證研究語言交易成本對出口貿(mào)易和對外投資區(qū)位選擇的影響,把語言經(jīng)濟學(xué)和國際貿(mào)易學(xué)結(jié)合起來研究,是對現(xiàn)有國際貿(mào)易理論的補充和發(fā)展。 通過理論分析和實證檢驗本文的主要結(jié)論為: 第一,我國出口貿(mào)易偏好于制度質(zhì)量較高的國家或地區(qū) 進(jìn)口國的制度質(zhì)量越高意味著政府工作效率越高、國家對市場的監(jiān)管越嚴(yán),越能為我國出口貿(mào)易提供政治保證,對我國商品的引力越大。進(jìn)口國高質(zhì)量的經(jīng)濟制度意味著貿(mào)易政策更為自由,優(yōu)勝劣汰的市場競爭環(huán)境更為公平,交易合約的簽訂程序簡化,貿(mào)易壁壘相對較低,有利于降低交易成本提高產(chǎn)品競爭力,高質(zhì)量的制度是吸引我國產(chǎn)品的重要因素。良好的法制運行環(huán)境能對交易中的違約行為進(jìn)行有效懲處,保障合約的正常履行,保護(hù)進(jìn)出口商的利益。因此我國的出口貿(mào)易不僅要考慮進(jìn)口國的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平還要考慮進(jìn)口國的制度質(zhì)量。高質(zhì)量的國家制度能為進(jìn)出口商提供良好的制度環(huán)境,降低貿(mào)易中可能出現(xiàn)的風(fēng)險和不確定性,有利于交易的順利實現(xiàn)。在出口貿(mào)易中要注重進(jìn)口國的制度質(zhì)量,同時還應(yīng)注意我國制度質(zhì)量的世界排名還比較靠后,與經(jīng)濟較為發(fā)達(dá)的國家或地區(qū)相比還有一定差距,我國制度比較優(yōu)勢的發(fā)揮還有很大潛力,今后要進(jìn)一步深化制度改革,健全和完善相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的法律法規(guī),提升制度質(zhì)量,促進(jìn)制度比較優(yōu)勢向競爭優(yōu)勢的轉(zhuǎn)化,發(fā)揮制度對我國國民經(jīng)濟的促進(jìn)作用。 第二,我國對外直接投資偏好于制度質(zhì)量較高的國家或地區(qū) 相對于出口貿(mào)易跨國公司的海外投資受東道國制度環(huán)境的影響更大,不僅銷售環(huán)節(jié)在東道國而且生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)也在東道國,跨國公司生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營的制度合法性是成功經(jīng)營的重要決定因素。較高制度質(zhì)量的東道國能為資本的自由流動提供保障,跨國公司的本土化經(jīng)營從原材料的采購、員工的雇傭、生產(chǎn)加工以及市場銷售都要受東道國制度環(huán)境的影響,如果東道國能為投資者提供生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營的制度支持,將有利于降低交易成本,符合投資者利潤最大化的經(jīng)營策略。相反,制度質(zhì)量較差的東道國不僅不能為投資者提供良好的制度支持,政治風(fēng)險的存在甚至使投資者面臨資本滅失的風(fēng)險。我國經(jīng)過三十多年的改革開放,社會主義市場經(jīng)濟體制逐步健全和完善,但制度完善度還相對較低,是助推我國資本輸出的重要原因。目前我國資本輸出還處于較低層次的發(fā)展階段,目標(biāo)區(qū)域還不是很明確,存在-定的盲目性,國內(nèi)的推力作用要大于國外的引力作用。 第三,企業(yè)在對高制度質(zhì)量國家或地區(qū)進(jìn)行跨國經(jīng)營決策時,傾向于向制度距離較大的高制度質(zhì)量國家或地區(qū)出口,向制度距離較小的高制度質(zhì)量國家或地區(qū)投資 制度質(zhì)量較高的國家或地區(qū)對我國出口貿(mào)易和對外直接投資都有較大的引力,目標(biāo)國的制度質(zhì)量較高意味著各項制度相對完善,可以為企業(yè)的跨國經(jīng)營提供制度保障,降低交易成本。但并不是目標(biāo)國的制度質(zhì)量越高就一定有利于跨國經(jīng)營的利潤最大化,目標(biāo)國的制度質(zhì)量較高同時可能也意味著和我國的制度差異較大,較大的制度差異將使經(jīng)營者面對更為陌生的制度環(huán)境,跨國交易與國內(nèi)交易有所不同,經(jīng)營者只有熟悉并適應(yīng)這種環(huán)境才可能在目標(biāo)國成功經(jīng)營。企業(yè)在開展跨國業(yè)務(wù)時首先確定選擇高制度質(zhì)量的區(qū)域,其次對出口經(jīng)營模式和投資經(jīng)營模式進(jìn)行選擇,這種決策與制度距離存在密切關(guān)系,當(dāng)制度距離較大時意味著經(jīng)營者所付出的交易成本可能較大,這種情況下出口貿(mào)易模式更有利于企業(yè)利潤最大化目標(biāo),當(dāng)制度距離較小時意味著經(jīng)營者所付出的交易成本可能較小,這種情況下跨國投資模式可能是經(jīng)營者的最優(yōu)決策。投資模式受東道國制度因素的影響較大,出口模式受進(jìn)口國制度環(huán)境的約束相對較小,理性企業(yè)在對高制度質(zhì)量國家或地區(qū)進(jìn)行跨國經(jīng)營決策時,傾向于向制度距離較大的高制度質(zhì)量國家或地區(qū)出口,向制度距離較小的高制度質(zhì)量國家或地區(qū)投資,這樣有利于利潤最大化目標(biāo)的實現(xiàn)。 第四,非正式制度語言對出口貿(mào)易和對外投資有重要影響 改革開放特別是加入WTO以來我國商品輸出和資本輸出快速增長,貨物出口貿(mào)易額位居世界首位,對外投資流量躍居世界第三,龐大的出口貿(mào)易額和對外投資量為我國經(jīng)濟增長做出很大貢獻(xiàn)。在開展跨國業(yè)務(wù)時由于語言差異會產(chǎn)生溝通障礙,要解決這種溝通障礙一國必須學(xué)習(xí)另一國語言,而語言的學(xué)習(xí)需要成本。目前漢語還不是國際語言,我國與世界主要國家進(jìn)行交易時往往要使用英語或其它國家語言,為此承擔(dān)了很大的語言學(xué)習(xí)成本。本文通過研究語言對出口貿(mào)易和對外直接投資的影響,認(rèn)為語言是一種交易成本。在開放經(jīng)濟條件下,小國是語言成本的主要承擔(dān)者。隨著本國學(xué)習(xí)國際通用語人數(shù)的增多,對外經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系的發(fā)展也會更快,但是學(xué)習(xí)通用語的人數(shù)比例有一個限額,如果超過該限額反而會阻礙國際貿(mào)易的發(fā)展。語言學(xué)習(xí)資本投入的提高也能促進(jìn)對外經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系的發(fā)展,但目前我國語言學(xué)習(xí)的經(jīng)費投入還存在某種程度的不合理現(xiàn)象。語言的國際推廣有利于降低交易成本,如果世界上有了統(tǒng)一的國際語言,國際經(jīng)貿(mào)往來就不再需要學(xué)習(xí)多種語言,語言學(xué)習(xí)的成本將大大降低,各國之間的溝通交流也會更加便利,有利于跨國交易和全球經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has achieved unprecedented sustained and rapid growth. The total economic output in 2012 has ranked second in the world for three consecutive years. China is a big importer and exporter of the world's third capital. China has become a real trading and investment country. According to macro-statistics, China's export trade mainly distributes in countries or regions with high institutional quality, and exports less to countries or regions with poor institutional quality. Effective institutional arrangements can reduce transaction costs and enhance product competitiveness. Institutional factors are the most fundamental factors for national prosperity, far more important than resources, population and capital. Institutions are the key factors affecting the location choice of China's export trade and foreign direct investment. China's export of commodities and capital not only prefers countries or regions with high economic development level, but also prefers countries or regions with high institutional quality. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of destination country system on China's export trade and FDI location choice.
Based on the analysis of the history and current situation of China's export trade and foreign investment, this paper divides the system into formal and informal systems, explains the mechanism of the impact of the system on export trade and foreign investment, establishes the evaluation index system of the system, establishes the institutional arrangements and China's export trade and foreign investment by setting relevant indicators. Based on the mathematical model of the relationship between investment and China's export trade, this paper makes quantitative analysis from the aspects of institutional quality and institutional distance by using the relevant statistical data of China's export trade and foreign investment, respectively studies the effects of institutional arrangements on the location distribution of China's export trade and foreign investment, and synthesizes the institutional arrangements on the selection of China's export trade and foreign investment patterns. The study of synergistic effects is a supplement and development to the interdisciplinary theories of international trade and institutional economics.
Firstly, based on the microscopic foundation of the trade gravity model, this paper deduces the system variable embedded in the extended trade gravity model by utilizing the utility function, and then constructs the econometric model to study the overall system quality, the single system quality and the single system quality by using the macroscopic statistical data of representative countries or regions. In this paper, the classification of the system is more detailed, and the research on the impact of the system on China's export trade is more comprehensive and in-depth.
Secondly, by embedding institutional variables into the extended investment gravity model, this paper constructs an econometric model and makes use of macro-statistical data of representative countries or regions to empirically study the impact of overall institutional quality, individual institutional quality and a single institutional quality on the location choice of China's FDI. In order to explore the inherent law of the location distribution of China's FDI, this paper makes a more comprehensive and in-depth study on the impact of the system on the location choice of China's FDI.
Thirdly, from the perspective of transaction cost, this paper explores the location choice relationship between China's export trade and foreign direct investment. China's export trade and foreign investment are distributed in nearly 200 countries or regions in the world, but this distribution is relatively concentrated and has certain internal laws. The existing literature mainly focuses on the impact of economic factors. This paper attempts to analyze the relationship between China's export trade and foreign direct investment. The influence of institutional factors on the choice of export and investment mode of transnational business operators.
Fourthly, a theoretical model of the impact of language on China's export trade and foreign investment is constructed based on the theory of tariff union. Manpower and capital input of language are used as proxy variables of language cost. The influence of language transaction cost on the location choice of export trade and foreign investment is empirically studied, and linguistic economics and international trade are combined. Together, the study is complementary to the existing international trade theory.
Through theoretical analysis and empirical test, the main conclusions of this paper are:
First, China's export trade favours countries or regions with high system quality.
The higher the quality of the importing country's system, the higher the efficiency of the government's work, the stricter the supervision of the country's market, the greater the political guarantee for China's export trade, and the greater the attraction of China's goods. Good legal environment can effectively punish the breach of contract, guarantee the normal performance of the contract and protect the interests of importers and exporters. Export trade should take into account not only the economic development level of the importing country but also the institutional quality of the importing country. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the fact that the world ranking of China's system quality is still relatively backward, there is still a certain gap compared with the more developed countries or regions, China's comparative advantage of the system still has great potential to play, in the future we should further deepen the reform of the system, improve and perfect the relevant laws and regulations, improve the quality of the system, and promote the system ratio. The transformation from comparative advantage to competitive advantage can bring into play the role of the system in promoting our national economy.
Second, China's foreign direct investment is preferred to countries or regions with high system quality.
The overseas investment of multinational corporations in export trade is more affected by the institutional environment of the host country than that of the multinational corporations in export trade. The legality of the production and operation system of multinational corporations is an important determinant of successful operation. The host country with higher institutional quality can guarantee the free flow of capital. If the host country can provide institutional support for the production and operation of the investors, it will be beneficial to reduce transaction costs and conform to the operating strategy of maximizing the profits of the investors. The poor host country not only can't provide good institutional support for investors, but also the existence of political risks even makes investors face the risk of capital loss. After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, China's socialist market economic system has been gradually improved and perfected, but the system is still relatively low, which is a heavy boost to China's capital export. At present, China's capital export is still in a low-level development stage, the target area is not very clear, there is blindness of "fixed-fixed" and the domestic driving force is greater than the foreign attraction.
Thirdly, when making transnational business decisions in countries or regions with high institutional quality, enterprises tend to export to countries or regions with higher institutional quality and invest in countries or regions with lower institutional distance.
The countries or regions with higher institutional quality have great attraction to China's export trade and foreign direct investment. The higher institutional quality of the target country means that the various systems are relatively perfect, which can provide institutional guarantee for the transnational operation of enterprises and reduce transaction costs. To maximize operating profit, the higher institutional quality of the target country may also mean a greater institutional difference from China. The greater institutional differences will make operators face a more unfamiliar institutional environment. Transnational transactions are different from domestic transactions. Only when the operators are familiar with and adapt to this environment can they successfully operate in the target country. In developing transnational business, the industry first determines the region with high institutional quality, and then chooses the export operation mode and the investment operation mode. This decision is closely related to the institutional distance. When the institutional distance is large, it means that the transaction cost of the operator may be large. In this case, the export trade mode is more favorable. When the institutional distance is small, it means that the transaction cost of the operator may be small. In this case, the transnational investment model may be the optimal decision of the operator. In transnational decision-making of high institutional quality countries or regions, they tend to export to high institutional quality countries or regions with relatively large institutional distance and invest in high institutional quality countries or regions with relatively small institutional distance.
Fourth, informal institutional language has an important impact on export trade and foreign investment.
Since the reform and opening up, especially after China's accession to the WTO, China's export of goods and capital has increased rapidly. The volume of export trade of goods ranks first in the world, the flow of foreign investment ranks third in the world, the huge volume of export trade and foreign investment have made great contributions to China's economic growth. At present, Chinese is not an international language, so we often use English or other languages when we trade with major countries in the world. Therefore, we bear a lot of language learning costs. Under the open economy, small countries are the main bearers of the cost of language. With the increase of the number of people studying international languages in their own countries, the development of foreign economic and trade relations will be faster, but there is a limit on the proportion of people learning common languages. If the limit is exceeded, it will be counter-productive. Language learning capital investment can also promote the development of foreign economic and trade relations, but there is still a certain degree of unreasonable investment in language learning in China. International promotion of language is conducive to reducing transaction costs, if the world has a unified international language, international economic and trade exchanges. There is no need to learn more than one language, the cost of language learning will be greatly reduced, communication between countries will be more convenient, conducive to transnational transactions and the development of the global economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2014
【分類號】:F832.6;F752.62

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