【摘要】：布雷頓森林體系瓦解，黃金逐步進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)化定價(jià)階段。黃金價(jià)格不再盯住美元，其價(jià)格也開始急劇變化。由于黃金不僅具有普通的商品屬性，貨幣屬性也是其一大特點(diǎn)，所以其價(jià)格波動(dòng)機(jī)制也不同于普通的商品。因此，黃金的價(jià)格也成為國(guó)內(nèi)外諸多學(xué)者給予關(guān)注和研究的重點(diǎn)。近年來(lái)，黃金價(jià)格由于受到眾多因素的影響，經(jīng)歷了不同程度的大漲和大跌。在新的經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下，對(duì)黃金價(jià)格影響因素的研究又成為熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。而且隨著黃金投資日漸進(jìn)入人們投資生活，對(duì)黃金價(jià)格未來(lái)走勢(shì)的判斷把握也顯得尤為重要。只有緊緊抓住黃金價(jià)格的跳動(dòng)脈搏才能更好地規(guī)避價(jià)格波動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并盡可能的獲得更多的收益。 本文首先從理論上重點(diǎn)研究了國(guó)際黃金價(jià)格的眾多影響因素，然后對(duì)近30年的黃金價(jià)格進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。在黃金價(jià)格大起大落的背景下，本文將近30年的黃金價(jià)格分成兩個(gè)階段進(jìn)行討論，即黃金價(jià)格上漲階段和黃金價(jià)格下降階段。經(jīng)過(guò)對(duì)黃金價(jià)格高漲階段和降落階段的黃金價(jià)格影響要素的實(shí)證研究，挖掘其在不同的價(jià)格趨勢(shì)下影響黃金價(jià)格的不同因素，從而為眾多黃金市場(chǎng)參與者在大趨勢(shì)的背景下預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)黃金價(jià)格走勢(shì)提供了依據(jù)。在文章的最后本文結(jié)合當(dāng)今現(xiàn)實(shí)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境，，在前文實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上簡(jiǎn)要預(yù)測(cè)黃金價(jià)格的未來(lái)走勢(shì)，并為黃金投資者、黃金生產(chǎn)企業(yè)以及關(guān)于國(guó)家黃金儲(chǔ)備方面提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Bretton Woods system collapsed, gold gradually entered the stage of market pricing. Gold is no longer pegged to the dollar, and its price is beginning to change sharply. Because gold not only has the common commodity attribute, but also the currency attribute is one of its characteristics, so its price fluctuation mechanism is also different from the ordinary commodity. Therefore, the price of gold has become the focus of many scholars at home and abroad. In recent years, gold prices have experienced varying degrees of rise and fall due to the influence of many factors. Under the new economic background, the research on the factors affecting gold price has become a hot issue. As gold investment enters people's life day by day, it is very important to judge the future trend of gold price. Only by grasping the beating pulse of gold price can we better avoid the risk of price fluctuation and get as much profit as possible. In this paper, we focus on the influence factors of the international gold price in theory, and then make an empirical study on the gold price in the past 30 years. Under the background of the fluctuation of gold price, the gold price of nearly 30 years is discussed in two stages: the rising stage of gold price and the declining stage of gold price. Through the empirical research on the factors influencing the gold price in the period of gold price rising and falling, the paper excavates the different factors that influence the gold price under different price trends. Therefore, it provides a basis for many gold market participants to predict the future gold price trend under the background of the general trend. At the end of the article, combining with the real world economic environment, this paper briefly predicts the future trend of gold price on the basis of the previous empirical test conclusion, and is a gold investor. Gold production enterprises and the national gold reserves put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F831.54

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