本文選題：美元弱勢調(diào)整 + 出口技術水平��； 參考：《復旦大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：針對美元弱勢調(diào)整背景下中美貿(mào)易關系這一問題,本文認為研究匯率變化對出口技術水平的影響比研究其對出口貿(mào)易量的影響更有理論和現(xiàn)實意義。為此,本文綜合運用比較分析、計量分析等方法,對這一問題進行全面研究,不僅從理論上論證了匯率對出口技術水平影響的傳導機制,并分別運用常系數(shù)模型和變系數(shù)模型分析了匯率對中國總出口技術水平和各區(qū)域出口技術水平的影響,并為影響機制的理論分析提供了經(jīng)驗證據(jù)。第一,對中國省級出口技術水平進行測算,并在此基礎上將出口產(chǎn)品劃分為高中低三類,進而從時間、區(qū)域、省份和產(chǎn)品四個維度對中國省級出口技術水平進行橫向和縱向比較分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),雖然中國總的出口技術水平逐年提高,但區(qū)域出口技術水平存在較大差異,并且差異有不斷擴大的趨勢。第二,從理論上探討了匯率對出口技術水平的影響機制。從生產(chǎn)成本角度看,本幣升值可以降低進口投入品的利用成本,從而有利于較多利用進口投入品的高技術產(chǎn)品。從市場定價角度看,高技術產(chǎn)品出口價格匯率彈性大,廠商可以提高價格來抵消成本上升的影響。從匯率彈性角度看,高技術產(chǎn)品出口需求價格彈性小而出口供給價格彈性大,受匯率升值影響小。第三,采用2002-2008年省級面板數(shù)據(jù)運用固定效應模型進行常系數(shù)估計以研究美元弱勢調(diào)整對中國總出口技術水平的影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),美元弱勢調(diào)整會顯著促進中國出口技術水平的提升。此外,物質(zhì)資本、人力資本、技術水平和匯改也有積極影響,FDI對中國總出口技術水平的影響為正但并不顯著。第四,考慮到中國區(qū)域發(fā)展的不平衡性,進一步運用空間地理模型進行變系數(shù)估計以探究美元弱勢調(diào)整對中國不同省市出口技術水平的影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),匯率、物質(zhì)資本、人力資本和匯改均具有顯著的空間變異性,而技術水平和FDI的空間變異性相對較小。其中,匯率、物質(zhì)資本和匯改對東部地區(qū)的作用要小于中西部地區(qū)；人力資本對東部地區(qū)的作用要大于中西部地區(qū)。第五,總結(jié)研究結(jié)論并提出相應政策建議。面對區(qū)域技術水平差距不斷擴大的趨勢,應加大中西部開發(fā)力度,包括基礎設施建設和人才支持等。在美元弱勢調(diào)整的大背景下,將貿(mào)易重心由低技術產(chǎn)品轉(zhuǎn)向高技術產(chǎn)品,同時完善人民幣匯率的市場化形成機制,增加匯率靈活性。此外,應引導民營資本投資,大力發(fā)展教育和科研事業(yè),促進物質(zhì)資本和人力資本的積累以及技術水平的提升。
[Abstract]:In view of the problem of Sino-US trade relations under the background of weak adjustment of US dollar, this paper holds that it is more theoretical and practical significance to study the influence of exchange rate change on export technical level than to study its influence on export trade volume. Therefore, this paper makes a comprehensive study of this problem by means of comparative analysis and econometric analysis, which not only demonstrates theoretically the transmission mechanism of the influence of exchange rate on export technology level. The influence of exchange rate on Chinese total export technology level and regional export technology level is analyzed by using constant coefficient model and variable coefficient model respectively. The empirical evidence is provided for the theoretical analysis of the influence mechanism. First, the technical level of China's export at the provincial level is measured, and on this basis, the export products are divided into three categories, high, middle and low, and then from time to time and region. The horizontal and vertical comparative analysis of Chinese provincial export technology level is carried out in four dimensions of provinces and products. It is found that although the total export technology level of China is increasing year by year, there are great differences in the regional export technology level, and the differences have a tendency to expand. Secondly, the influence mechanism of exchange rate on export technology level is discussed theoretically. From the point of view of production cost, the appreciation of local currency can reduce the utilization cost of imported inputs, which is beneficial to the high technology products which make more use of imported inputs. From the market pricing point of view, high-tech products export price flexibility, manufacturers can raise prices to offset the impact of rising costs. From the point of view of exchange rate elasticity, the price elasticity of export demand of high-tech products is small, and the price elasticity of export supply is large, which is little affected by exchange rate appreciation. Thirdly, we use the provincial panel data from 2002 to 2008 to estimate the constant coefficients by using the fixed effect model to study the impact of the weak adjustment of the US dollar on the technical level of China's total export. The study found that the weak dollar adjustment will significantly promote China's export technology level. In addition, material capital, human capital, technological level and exchange rate reform also have a positive impact on China's total export technology level, but not significant. Fourth, considering the imbalance of regional development in China, we further use the spatial geographical model to estimate the variable coefficients to explore the impact of the weak adjustment of US dollar on the export technology level of different provinces and cities in China. It is found that the exchange rate, material capital, human capital and exchange rate reform have significant spatial variability, while the technological level and the spatial variability of FDI are relatively small. The effect of exchange rate, material capital and exchange rate reform on the eastern region is smaller than that of the central and western regions, and the effect of human capital on the eastern region is greater than that of the central and western region. Fifth, summarize the research conclusions and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations. In the face of the increasing gap of regional technical level, we should strengthen the development of the central and western regions, including infrastructure construction and talent support. Under the background of the weak adjustment of the US dollar, the focus of trade should be shifted from low-technology products to high-tech products, and at the same time, the marketization mechanism of RMB exchange rate should be improved and the exchange rate flexibility should be increased. In addition, we should guide private capital investment, vigorously develop education and scientific research, promote the accumulation of material capital and human capital and raise the level of technology.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752.62;F837.12
，

本文編號：2117618