本文關(guān)鍵詞： 金融自由化 經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng) 主成分分析法　出處：《中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：伴隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)邁入新的發(fā)展時(shí)期，金融，作為現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)的核心，在經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展中發(fā)揮著越來越重要的作用。在金融發(fā)展歷史上，無論是發(fā)達(dá)的資本主義國(guó)家，還是新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家，都經(jīng)歷過或者正在經(jīng)歷著一系列的金融自由化改革進(jìn)程。這些金融自由化的改革旨在消除政府管制，發(fā)揮市場(chǎng)這張無形的大手，提高金融市場(chǎng)的整體效率。然而，金融業(yè)在發(fā)揮著服務(wù)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)，帶動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮的功能的同時(shí)，金融體系也綁架了整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)。千里之堤潰于此，經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)越來越多的源于金融業(yè)的高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和自由化。對(duì)于正走在金融自由化路途中的中國(guó)而言，金融自由化既像是一個(gè)充滿魔力的寶盒。正確使用金融自由化的力量，能夠?yàn)檗D(zhuǎn)型中的中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)注入鮮活的動(dòng)力，發(fā)揮市場(chǎng)資源配置的優(yōu)勢(shì)，完成中國(guó)的金融業(yè)改革。與此同時(shí)，，金融自由化也很可能成為潘多拉的寶盒，釋放出經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)這頭巨獸。因此，研究金融自由化的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)有重要的實(shí)踐意義。 為了更為全面細(xì)致地刻畫和描述金融自由化的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)。本文在定量測(cè)度金融自由化，利用主成分分析法測(cè)算金融自由化指數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)上，一方面，通過機(jī)理分析推導(dǎo)金融自由化經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)的中間變量，進(jìn)而分析金融自由化的儲(chǔ)蓄、投資、效率效應(yīng)，跳出了傳統(tǒng)的分析正負(fù)效應(yīng)或者單一效應(yīng)的框架；一方面，通過宏觀的金融自由化對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展影響的回歸分析，對(duì)我國(guó)金融自由化的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。從理論和實(shí)證的角度給出了中國(guó)金融自由化經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)的測(cè)度和分析。 通過理論推導(dǎo)和實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)，驗(yàn)證了金融自由化對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的正向效應(yīng)。代表我國(guó)自由化程度的金融自由化指數(shù)除短暫的停滯期外，均處于上升通道，這表明我國(guó)金融自由化程度正在逐步加深。通過中間變量的機(jī)理分析，在儲(chǔ)蓄效應(yīng)方面，金融自由化對(duì)于儲(chǔ)蓄的影響不顯著。在投資效應(yīng)方面，固定資產(chǎn)投資和金融自由化指數(shù)、GDP、儲(chǔ)蓄之間存在長(zhǎng)期的協(xié)整關(guān)系。金融自由化的推進(jìn)能夠直接帶來投資數(shù)量的增加。在質(zhì)量效應(yīng)方面，金融自由化有利于投資效率的提高，且單從系數(shù)角度出發(fā)比較，效率效應(yīng)大于其規(guī)模效應(yīng)。在對(duì)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行回歸分析中，驗(yàn)證了金融自由化能夠有效地解釋經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，表現(xiàn)出正向的促進(jìn)作用，這說明我國(guó)的金融自由化進(jìn)程本身已經(jīng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生了良性的推動(dòng)作用。然而，綜合的回歸結(jié)果也表明，金融自由化的效應(yīng)仍然是較為有限的。這說明，改革過程中，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)主要來自外生的投資增長(zhǎng)和金融自由化發(fā)展過程，金融市場(chǎng)本身的功能還不具備明顯的增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng)，即推動(dòng)力最大的仍然是資本運(yùn)作及政策導(dǎo)向。這也為我國(guó)金融自由化進(jìn)一步指明了方向，一方面，我們要堅(jiān)定而穩(wěn)步地推進(jìn)金融自由化，另一方面，要通過金融自由化構(gòu)建完善高效的金融體系，以從根本上促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的長(zhǎng)效發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:With the global economy entering a new period of development, finance, as the core of modern economy, plays an increasingly important role in the development of economy. Or emerging market countries, which have undergone or are undergoing a series of financial liberalization reforms aimed at eliminating government regulation and giving play to the invisible hand of the market. Improve the overall efficiency of financial markets. However, while the financial sector serves the real economy and drives economic prosperity, the financial system has also kidnapped the entire economy. The economic crisis is increasingly due to the high risk and liberalization of the financial sector. For China, which is on the way to financial liberalization, financial liberalization is like a magic box. It can inject fresh impetus into the transforming Chinese economy, give play to the advantages of the allocation of market resources, and complete the reform of China's financial sector. At the same time, financial liberalization is also likely to become Pandora's treasure box. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the economic effects of financial liberalization. In order to describe the economic effects of financial liberalization in a more comprehensive and detailed way, this paper, on the basis of quantitative measurement of financial liberalization and the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to calculate the index of financial liberalization, on the one hand, Through mechanism analysis, the intermediate variables of economic effect of financial liberalization are deduced, and then the savings, investment and efficiency effects of financial liberalization are analyzed, which jump out of the traditional framework of analyzing positive and negative effects or single effects; on the one hand, Through the regression analysis of the influence of macro financial liberalization on economic development, this paper verifies the economic effect of financial liberalization in China, and gives the measurement and analysis of the economic effect of financial liberalization in China from the theoretical and empirical perspectives. The positive effect of financial liberalization on the economy is verified by theoretical derivation and empirical test. The financial liberalization index, which represents the degree of liberalization in China, is in a rising channel except for a short period of stagnation. This indicates that the degree of financial liberalization in China is gradually deepening. Through the mechanism analysis of intermediate variables, the effect of financial liberalization on savings is not significant in terms of savings effect. There is a long-term cointegration relationship between fixed asset investment and financial liberalization index (GDP). The promotion of financial liberalization can directly increase the quantity of investment. In terms of quality effect, financial liberalization is beneficial to the improvement of investment efficiency. In the regression analysis of the whole economy, it is proved that financial liberalization can explain economic growth effectively and show positive promoting effect. This shows that the process of financial liberalization in our country has had a positive effect on the economy. However, the comprehensive regression results also show that the effect of financial liberalization is still relatively limited. China's economic growth comes mainly from exogenous investment growth and the development process of financial liberalization. The function of the financial market itself does not have a significant growth effect. That is, the largest driving force is still the capital operation and policy orientation. This has further pointed out the direction of our financial liberalization. On the one hand, we must firmly and steadily promote financial liberalization, on the other hand, We should construct an efficient financial system through financial liberalization in order to promote the long-term development of economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832;F224

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