發(fā)布時間：2018-12-10 08:33

【摘要】：核電是一種清潔的能源，相比于火電，核電具有環(huán)保、高效等特點。我們國家應當大力發(fā)展核電，來緩解我們國家能源短缺的壓力。核電站利用鈾燃料來進行發(fā)電,但是我國的鈾礦儲量并不是很豐富，只依賴國內開采的鈾資源很難滿足核電快速發(fā)展的需要。我們面臨的問題，就是如何解決鈾資源供不應求。通過海外投資鈾礦是一種比較好的解決方法。海外尋找鈾礦將成為我國核電企業(yè)的迫切需要解決的任務，海外鈾資源投資風險評價是核電企業(yè)投資海外項目前提條件。 海外鈾資源投資開發(fā)項目往往具有投資額大、開發(fā)周期長、各種不可預計的因素存在等特征，對投資決策帶來不確定的風險。因此對投資開發(fā)項目進行風險評價顯得尤其重要。設計投資風險調查問卷并向中核集團和中廣核集團發(fā)放問卷。對調查問卷的數據進行統計分析，通過因子分析方法對海外鈾資源開發(fā)投資風險變量進行篩選，，并構建海外鈾資源開發(fā)投資風險評價指標體系。本文引入模糊綜合評價法對海外鈾資源開發(fā)項目投資風險進行風險分析和評價。利用熵權法對海外鈾資源投資開發(fā)項目投資風險因素進行分析和排序，并對投資開發(fā)項目的關鍵風險變量產生風險的原因進行分析,通過風險分析來了解項目面臨的最大風險和最小風險，從而達到規(guī)避和控制風險。通過中核集團在非洲國家尼日爾的鈾礦投資項目來進行風險分析和評價，來驗證和修正我們所建立的評估模型。根據分析評價所得到的結果為海外鈾資源投資風險管理提出風險控制對策建議，為投資業(yè)主在進行投資決策時提供積極的參考意見。
[Abstract]:Nuclear power is a clean energy, compared with thermal power, nuclear power has the characteristics of environmental protection and high efficiency. Our country should vigorously develop nuclear power to alleviate the pressure of energy shortage in our country. Nuclear power plants use uranium fuel to generate electricity, but the uranium reserves in China are not very rich. It is difficult to meet the needs of rapid development of nuclear power only by relying on domestic uranium resources. The problem we face is how to solve the shortage of uranium resources. It is a good solution to invest uranium ore abroad. Looking for uranium ore overseas will become an urgent task for nuclear power enterprises in China. Risk assessment of overseas uranium resources investment is a prerequisite for nuclear power enterprises to invest in overseas projects. Overseas uranium resources investment and development projects often have the characteristics of large investment, long development period and various unpredictable factors, which bring uncertain risk to investment decision. Therefore, the risk evaluation of investment and development projects is particularly important. Design investment risk questionnaire and distribute the questionnaire to CNPC and CGN. The questionnaire data were statistically analyzed and the risk variables of overseas uranium resources development investment were screened by factor analysis method, and the risk evaluation index system of overseas uranium resources development investment was constructed. In this paper, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is introduced to analyze and evaluate the investment risk of overseas uranium resources development projects. The risk factors of overseas uranium resources investment and development project are analyzed and sorted by entropy weight method, and the causes of the risk caused by the key risk variables of the investment and development project are analyzed. Through risk analysis to understand the maximum and minimum risks faced by the project, so as to avoid and control the risks. The risk analysis and evaluation are carried out through the investment project of China Nuclear Power Group in the African country Niger to verify and revise our evaluation model. According to the results of the analysis and evaluation, the risk control countermeasures for overseas uranium resources investment risk management are put forward, and the positive reference suggestions are provided for investment owners when making investment decisions.
【學位授予單位】：南華大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.23;F272.3

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