【摘要】：目前，我國石油對外依存度持續(xù)增高；天然氣和煤炭進(jìn)口量也不斷增加，能源進(jìn)口風(fēng)險(xiǎn)日益增大，因此，系統(tǒng)研究我國重要能源資源進(jìn)口風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、保證我國能源進(jìn)口安全迫在眉睫。而目前國內(nèi)有關(guān)能源進(jìn)口風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究多集中在石油方面，鮮有將煤炭、石油、天然氣等重要能源資源進(jìn)口風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與渠道選擇納入到一個(gè)整體框架進(jìn)行研究，且風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)多從總體出發(fā)，，較少針對具體進(jìn)口來源地和運(yùn)輸通道的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)。鑒于此，本文在對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)綜述的基礎(chǔ)上，采用理論與實(shí)證、定性與定量分析相結(jié)合的研究方法對我國重要能源資源進(jìn)口風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)與渠道選擇進(jìn)行了研究，主要工作和結(jié)論如下： （1）在分析我國三大重要能源資源進(jìn)口現(xiàn)狀基礎(chǔ)上，系統(tǒng)歸納總結(jié)出我國煤炭、石油、天然氣三大重要能源資源的主要進(jìn)口來源地和包括海上與陸上的主要運(yùn)輸通道，遴選出31個(gè)主要進(jìn)口來源地和12條運(yùn)輸通道，為我國重要能源資源進(jìn)口風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)和渠道選擇奠定了基礎(chǔ)。 （2）分析得出資源、經(jīng)濟(jì)、政治是進(jìn)口來源地風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要影響因素，路線、承運(yùn)、港口、地緣政治和軍事是運(yùn)輸通道風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要影響因素，并在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了我國重要能源資源進(jìn)口風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系，通過專家調(diào)查確定了各指標(biāo)評分標(biāo)準(zhǔn)；利用層次分析法和灰評估技術(shù)建立了我國重要能源資源進(jìn)口來源地和運(yùn)輸通道風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)模型，并借助Matlab軟件對目前我國煤炭、石油、天然氣進(jìn)口風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了評價(jià)，得出31個(gè)進(jìn)口來源地和12條進(jìn)口運(yùn)輸通道的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀態(tài)。 （3）根據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)結(jié)果，結(jié)合我國重要能源資源進(jìn)口實(shí)際，針對性地提出了我國重要能源資源進(jìn)口渠道選擇的具體建議，主要包括：重點(diǎn)培養(yǎng)，深化與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較低地區(qū)的能源合作；加強(qiáng)聯(lián)系，擴(kuò)大與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)一般地區(qū)的能源貿(mào)易；慎重選擇，權(quán)衡與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高地區(qū)的能源利益；鞏固和完善運(yùn)輸通道多元化，切實(shí)解決進(jìn)口通道安全性問題；加強(qiáng)與通道過境地區(qū)的能源外交，確保我國能源進(jìn)口的運(yùn)輸暢通；加大綜合運(yùn)力建設(shè)的支持力度，建立切實(shí)可行的軍事保護(hù)機(jī)制；等。 以上研究成果對我國重要能源資源進(jìn)口風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)及能源進(jìn)口相關(guān)政策制定具有較重要的參考價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:At present, the degree of external dependence of petroleum in China continues to increase; The import of natural gas and coal is also increasing, and the risk of energy import is increasing. Therefore, it is urgent to study the import risk of important energy resources in China. At present, domestic research on the risk of energy import is mostly focused on oil, and few of them include the import risk and channel selection of important energy resources, such as coal, oil, natural gas, and so on, into a whole framework for research. And the risk evaluation is mostly based on the whole, but less on the specific import source and transportation channel. In view of this, on the basis of a systematic review of relevant research at home and abroad, this paper studies the risk assessment and channel selection of import of important energy resources in China by means of theoretical and empirical, qualitative and quantitative analysis. The main work and conclusions are as follows: (1) on the basis of analyzing the import status of three important energy resources in China, the coal and petroleum of our country are summed up systematically. The main sources of import of the three major energy resources of natural gas and the main transportation channels, including sea and land, have been selected out of 31 major import sources and 12 transportation channels. It lays a foundation for risk assessment and channel selection of important energy resources in China. (2) it is concluded that resources, economy and politics are the main influencing factors of the risk of the import source, and the route, transportation, port, geopolitics and military are the main influencing factors of the risk of the transportation channel. On this basis, the evaluation index system of import risk of important energy resources in China is constructed, and the evaluation standard of each index is determined through expert investigation. The risk assessment model of important energy resource import source and transportation channel is established by using AHP and grey assessment technology, and the import risk of coal, oil and natural gas in China is evaluated with the help of Matlab software. The risk states of 31 import sources and 12 import transportation channels are obtained. (3) according to the result of risk assessment, combined with the actual situation of import of important energy resources in China, the paper puts forward some specific suggestions for the selection of import channels of important energy resources in China. Deepening energy cooperation with low-risk areas; Strengthen contacts, expand energy trade with general risk areas, choose carefully, weigh the energy interests of high risk areas, consolidate and improve the diversification of transport channels, and effectively solve the problem of safety of import channels; Strengthen the energy diplomacy with the transit area, ensure the smooth transportation of our country's energy import, strengthen the support of the comprehensive transportation capacity construction, establish the feasible military protection mechanism, and so on. The above research results have important reference value for the risk assessment of important energy resources import and the formulation of energy import policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752.61;F426.2

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