匯率變化對中德制造業(yè)出的影響：比較研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-03 18:04
【摘要】：制造業(yè)對國家的發(fā)展而言是極為關鍵的環(huán)節(jié),是一國國民經濟的物質基礎和產業(yè)主體。2008年全球金融危機爆發(fā)后,中國制造業(yè)出口的競爭優(yōu)勢正在逐步喪失。而德國在19世紀順利完成工業(yè)化,在二戰(zhàn)以后實現產業(yè)升級,一直保持著制造業(yè)優(yōu)勢。德國制造業(yè)的國際競爭力強勁而持續(xù),對中國制造業(yè)發(fā)展升級具有重大借鑒意義。為此,本文通過描述統(tǒng)計,計量分析等方法,從匯率的維度去比較中德兩國制造業(yè),提煉德國制造業(yè)發(fā)展中的優(yōu)勢及經驗,對中國制造業(yè)發(fā)展升級提出戰(zhàn)略性建議。首先,本文針對中德制造業(yè)進行歷史錯位比較,選取德國1995-2004年向歐元過渡階段,以及中國2005年匯率改革以來的八年兩國制造業(yè)出口額及結構的變化,發(fā)現德國在歐元啟動前五年制造業(yè)結構升級明顯,而歐元啟動后五年制造業(yè)出口總額增幅明顯。而中國雖在八年間制造業(yè)出口額持續(xù)增長,但制造業(yè)出口結構中低技術制造業(yè)占比過高。其次,本文通過建立引力模型,發(fā)現本國及貿易伙伴國國內生產總值對中德制造業(yè)出口額均有顯著的正向影響,而距離均未對兩國制造業(yè)出口額形成顯著影響。兩國不同的是,歐元匯率對德國制造業(yè)出口具有顯著的正向影響,而中國制造業(yè)出口額對人民幣匯率并不敏感。這很有可能是因為人民幣匯率并未完全自由浮動,且存在貿易保護政策等。本文認為,隨著人民幣匯率自由浮動腳步的加快,在不久的將來會顯著影響到中國制造業(yè)的出口額。最后,本文針對中德兩國制造業(yè)出口進行綜述性比較,并針對中國當前制造業(yè)發(fā)展及出口額增長提出政策建議。本文認為中國當前可以建立類似歐盟的亞洲經濟共同體,并穩(wěn)步推進人民幣匯率形成改革機制,促進制造業(yè)轉型升級,大力發(fā)展中高技術制造業(yè)等,來應對日益激烈的國際競爭。
[Abstract]:The manufacturing industry is a crucial link to the development of a country, and is the material foundation and the main body of industry of a country's national economy. After the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, the competitive advantage of China's manufacturing exports is gradually losing. Germany successfully industrialized in the 19 th century, industrial upgrading after World War II, has maintained the manufacturing advantage. The international competitiveness of German manufacturing industry is strong and sustainable, which is of great significance to the development and upgrading of Chinese manufacturing industry. Therefore, through describing statistics and econometric analysis, this paper compares the manufacturing industry of China and Germany from the dimension of exchange rate, refines the advantages and experiences in the development of German manufacturing industry, and puts forward some strategic suggestions for the development and upgrading of Chinese manufacturing industry. First of all, this paper compares the historical dislocation of Chinese and German manufacturing industries, selects Germany's transition from 1995 to 2004 to the euro, and eight years of changes in the export volume and structure of the two countries' manufacturing industry since the exchange rate reform in 2005. It was found that Germany's manufacturing structure was significantly upgraded five years before the launch of the euro, while total manufacturing exports rose significantly five years after the launch of the euro. Although China's manufacturing exports continued to grow over the past eight years, the proportion of low-tech manufacturing in the manufacturing export structure was too high. Secondly, through the establishment of gravity model, it is found that the gross domestic product (GDP) of our country and its trading partners have a significant positive impact on the manufacturing exports of China and Germany, but the distance has no significant effect on the manufacturing exports of both countries. Unlike the two countries, the euro has a significant positive impact on German manufacturing exports, which are insensitive to the yuan. This is probably because the RMB exchange rate is not completely free to float, and there are trade protection policies. This paper argues that, with the rapid pace of RMB exchange rate floating freely, the export volume of Chinese manufacturing industry will be significantly affected in the near future. Finally, this paper makes a comprehensive comparison of manufacturing exports between China and Germany, and puts forward some policy suggestions on the development and export growth of China's manufacturing industry. This paper holds that China can establish an Asian Economic Community similar to the European Union, and steadily promote the RMB exchange rate reform mechanism, promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, and vigorously develop the high-tech manufacturing industry, etc. To cope with increasingly fierce international competition.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F831.6;F424;F451.6
本文編號：2308543
[Abstract]:The manufacturing industry is a crucial link to the development of a country, and is the material foundation and the main body of industry of a country's national economy. After the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, the competitive advantage of China's manufacturing exports is gradually losing. Germany successfully industrialized in the 19 th century, industrial upgrading after World War II, has maintained the manufacturing advantage. The international competitiveness of German manufacturing industry is strong and sustainable, which is of great significance to the development and upgrading of Chinese manufacturing industry. Therefore, through describing statistics and econometric analysis, this paper compares the manufacturing industry of China and Germany from the dimension of exchange rate, refines the advantages and experiences in the development of German manufacturing industry, and puts forward some strategic suggestions for the development and upgrading of Chinese manufacturing industry. First of all, this paper compares the historical dislocation of Chinese and German manufacturing industries, selects Germany's transition from 1995 to 2004 to the euro, and eight years of changes in the export volume and structure of the two countries' manufacturing industry since the exchange rate reform in 2005. It was found that Germany's manufacturing structure was significantly upgraded five years before the launch of the euro, while total manufacturing exports rose significantly five years after the launch of the euro. Although China's manufacturing exports continued to grow over the past eight years, the proportion of low-tech manufacturing in the manufacturing export structure was too high. Secondly, through the establishment of gravity model, it is found that the gross domestic product (GDP) of our country and its trading partners have a significant positive impact on the manufacturing exports of China and Germany, but the distance has no significant effect on the manufacturing exports of both countries. Unlike the two countries, the euro has a significant positive impact on German manufacturing exports, which are insensitive to the yuan. This is probably because the RMB exchange rate is not completely free to float, and there are trade protection policies. This paper argues that, with the rapid pace of RMB exchange rate floating freely, the export volume of Chinese manufacturing industry will be significantly affected in the near future. Finally, this paper makes a comprehensive comparison of manufacturing exports between China and Germany, and puts forward some policy suggestions on the development and export growth of China's manufacturing industry. This paper holds that China can establish an Asian Economic Community similar to the European Union, and steadily promote the RMB exchange rate reform mechanism, promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, and vigorously develop the high-tech manufacturing industry, etc. To cope with increasingly fierce international competition.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F831.6;F424;F451.6
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