【摘要】：制造業(yè)對(duì)國(guó)家的發(fā)展而言是極為關(guān)鍵的環(huán)節(jié),是一國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)和產(chǎn)業(yè)主體。2008年全球金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后,中國(guó)制造業(yè)出口的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)正在逐步喪失。而德國(guó)在19世紀(jì)順利完成工業(yè)化,在二戰(zhàn)以后實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí),一直保持著制造業(yè)優(yōu)勢(shì)。德國(guó)制造業(yè)的國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力強(qiáng)勁而持續(xù),對(duì)中國(guó)制造業(yè)發(fā)展升級(jí)具有重大借鑒意義。為此,本文通過(guò)描述統(tǒng)計(jì),計(jì)量分析等方法,從匯率的維度去比較中德兩國(guó)制造業(yè),提煉德國(guó)制造業(yè)發(fā)展中的優(yōu)勢(shì)及經(jīng)驗(yàn),對(duì)中國(guó)制造業(yè)發(fā)展升級(jí)提出戰(zhàn)略性建議。首先,本文針對(duì)中德制造業(yè)進(jìn)行歷史錯(cuò)位比較,選取德國(guó)1995-2004年向歐元過(guò)渡階段,以及中國(guó)2005年匯率改革以來(lái)的八年兩國(guó)制造業(yè)出口額及結(jié)構(gòu)的變化,發(fā)現(xiàn)德國(guó)在歐元啟動(dòng)前五年制造業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)明顯,而歐元啟動(dòng)后五年制造業(yè)出口總額增幅明顯。而中國(guó)雖在八年間制造業(yè)出口額持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),但制造業(yè)出口結(jié)構(gòu)中低技術(shù)制造業(yè)占比過(guò)高。其次,本文通過(guò)建立引力模型,發(fā)現(xiàn)本國(guó)及貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值對(duì)中德制造業(yè)出口額均有顯著的正向影響,而距離均未對(duì)兩國(guó)制造業(yè)出口額形成顯著影響。兩國(guó)不同的是,歐元匯率對(duì)德國(guó)制造業(yè)出口具有顯著的正向影響,而中國(guó)制造業(yè)出口額對(duì)人民幣匯率并不敏感。這很有可能是因?yàn)槿嗣駧艆R率并未完全自由浮動(dòng),且存在貿(mào)易保護(hù)政策等。本文認(rèn)為,隨著人民幣匯率自由浮動(dòng)腳步的加快,在不久的將來(lái)會(huì)顯著影響到中國(guó)制造業(yè)的出口額。最后,本文針對(duì)中德兩國(guó)制造業(yè)出口進(jìn)行綜述性比較,并針對(duì)中國(guó)當(dāng)前制造業(yè)發(fā)展及出口額增長(zhǎng)提出政策建議。本文認(rèn)為中國(guó)當(dāng)前可以建立類(lèi)似歐盟的亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)共同體,并穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)人民幣匯率形成改革機(jī)制,促進(jìn)制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí),大力發(fā)展中高技術(shù)制造業(yè)等,來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)日益激烈的國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。
[Abstract]:The manufacturing industry is a crucial link to the development of a country, and is the material foundation and the main body of industry of a country's national economy. After the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, the competitive advantage of China's manufacturing exports is gradually losing. Germany successfully industrialized in the 19 th century, industrial upgrading after World War II, has maintained the manufacturing advantage. The international competitiveness of German manufacturing industry is strong and sustainable, which is of great significance to the development and upgrading of Chinese manufacturing industry. Therefore, through describing statistics and econometric analysis, this paper compares the manufacturing industry of China and Germany from the dimension of exchange rate, refines the advantages and experiences in the development of German manufacturing industry, and puts forward some strategic suggestions for the development and upgrading of Chinese manufacturing industry. First of all, this paper compares the historical dislocation of Chinese and German manufacturing industries, selects Germany's transition from 1995 to 2004 to the euro, and eight years of changes in the export volume and structure of the two countries' manufacturing industry since the exchange rate reform in 2005. It was found that Germany's manufacturing structure was significantly upgraded five years before the launch of the euro, while total manufacturing exports rose significantly five years after the launch of the euro. Although China's manufacturing exports continued to grow over the past eight years, the proportion of low-tech manufacturing in the manufacturing export structure was too high. Secondly, through the establishment of gravity model, it is found that the gross domestic product (GDP) of our country and its trading partners have a significant positive impact on the manufacturing exports of China and Germany, but the distance has no significant effect on the manufacturing exports of both countries. Unlike the two countries, the euro has a significant positive impact on German manufacturing exports, which are insensitive to the yuan. This is probably because the RMB exchange rate is not completely free to float, and there are trade protection policies. This paper argues that, with the rapid pace of RMB exchange rate floating freely, the export volume of Chinese manufacturing industry will be significantly affected in the near future. Finally, this paper makes a comprehensive comparison of manufacturing exports between China and Germany, and puts forward some policy suggestions on the development and export growth of China's manufacturing industry. This paper holds that China can establish an Asian Economic Community similar to the European Union, and steadily promote the RMB exchange rate reform mechanism, promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, and vigorously develop the high-tech manufacturing industry, etc. To cope with increasingly fierce international competition.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F831.6;F424;F451.6

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