發(fā)布時間：2018-06-15 18:43

  本文選題：能源消耗 + 工業(yè)碳排放��； 參考：《北京林業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：工業(yè)是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的命脈,同時也是能源消耗和碳排放的最重要主體。我國是世界上溫室氣體排放的第一大國,低碳轉(zhuǎn)型與節(jié)能減排對于全世界的低碳轉(zhuǎn)型至關(guān)重要。我國必須加快節(jié)能減排的步伐,其中的核心就是工業(yè)行業(yè)的節(jié)能減排。研究工業(yè)碳排放與工業(yè)產(chǎn)值增長的關(guān)系,有助于科學(xué)考察工業(yè)發(fā)展進(jìn)程與能源消費和碳排放之間的關(guān)系,了解工業(yè)節(jié)能減排的進(jìn)展,推動工業(yè)的良好發(fā)展,對于促進(jìn)我國工業(yè)行業(yè)及相關(guān)企業(yè)的節(jié)能減排工作具有重要的意義。本文以2001-2011年為樣本時間序列,首先基于工業(yè)化石能源消耗的數(shù)據(jù)及碳排放量測算的基本等式,測算了我國工業(yè)各行業(yè)的碳排放量,并分析了我國工業(yè)行業(yè)碳排放的主要特征。其次文章分別利用現(xiàn)有脫鉤理論研究,構(gòu)建脫鉤指數(shù)分析模型探討我國工業(yè)產(chǎn)值與工業(yè)碳排放的脫鉤關(guān)系狀況；運用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度方法分析了我國工業(yè)各行業(yè)碳排放量與工業(yè)產(chǎn)值之間的關(guān)系；采用ADF單位根、協(xié)整和格蘭杰因果關(guān)系進(jìn)行檢驗對工業(yè)行業(yè)碳排放與工業(yè)產(chǎn)值進(jìn)行協(xié)整性與因果關(guān)系分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：(1)2001-2011年間,工業(yè)行業(yè)碳排放還處于較快增長階段,節(jié)能減排形勢不容樂觀；(2)工業(yè)產(chǎn)值與工業(yè)碳排放整體處于相對脫鉤狀態(tài),相對脫鉤趨勢仍將持續(xù),同時脫鉤比率存在一定的波動,距離實現(xiàn)完全脫鉤還有一定差距；(3)工業(yè)各行業(yè)產(chǎn)值與碳排放量的變化趨勢有較大的趨同性,但是不同行業(yè)的趨同度存在差異；(4)工業(yè)各行業(yè)產(chǎn)值和碳排放之間存在著從產(chǎn)值增長到碳排放增長的單向Granger因果關(guān)系。最后,本文結(jié)合分析結(jié)果,提出了工業(yè)行業(yè)減少碳排放的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Industry is not only the lifeblood of national economy, but also the most important subject of energy consumption and carbon emission. China is the largest country in greenhouse gas emission in the world. Low carbon transition and energy saving and emission reduction are very important to the world low carbon transition. China must speed up the pace of energy saving and emission reduction, the core of which is the energy saving and emission reduction in industrial industry. The study of the relationship between industrial carbon emissions and the growth of industrial output value will contribute to the scientific investigation of the relationship between industrial development process and energy consumption and carbon emissions, to understand the progress of industrial energy conservation and emission reduction, and to promote the good development of industry. It is of great significance to promote energy saving and emission reduction in industry and related enterprises of our country. Based on the data of industrial fossil energy consumption and the basic equation of carbon emission calculation, this paper calculates the carbon emissions of China's industrial industries, and analyzes the main characteristics of China's industrial industries' carbon emissions. Secondly, using the existing decoupling theory research, the paper constructs a decoupling index analysis model to explore the decoupling relationship between industrial output value and industrial carbon emissions. The relationship between carbon emissions and industrial output value of various industries in China is analyzed by using the method of grey correlation degree, and the unit root of ADF is used to analyze the relationship between carbon emissions and industrial output value. Cointegration and Granger causality are tested to analyze the cointegration and causality between industrial carbon emissions and industrial output value. The study found that from 2001 to 2011, industrial carbon emissions were still in a relatively rapid growth stage, and the situation of energy conservation and emission reduction was not optimistic. 2) Industrial output value and industrial carbon emissions as a whole were in a relatively decoupled state, and the relative decoupling trend would continue. At the same time, there is a certain fluctuation in decoupling ratio, and there is still a certain gap between complete decoupling and complete decoupling. (3) the trend of industrial output value and carbon emission is similar, but the convergence degree of different industries is different. (4) there is a one-way Granger causality between industrial output value and carbon emission from the increase of output value to the increase of carbon emissions. Finally, based on the analysis results, the paper puts forward some policy recommendations for reducing carbon emissions in industrial industries.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京林業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：X708;F424.1

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本文編號：2023136