本文選題：風(fēng)電 + 清潔能源發(fā)展機(jī)制(CDM)　； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著全球能源危機(jī)加劇、環(huán)境問題凸顯,世界各國紛紛進(jìn)行能源戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整。風(fēng)電作為清潔、高效的可再生能源,成為我國實(shí)施可再生能源戰(zhàn)略的支柱性能源,獲得了廣闊的發(fā)展空間與市場前景,伴隨著清潔能源發(fā)展機(jī)制(CDM)在我國風(fēng)電市場的廣泛應(yīng)用,我國風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展與CDM有著越來越緊密的聯(lián)系。 文章確立了體現(xiàn)風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)競爭力的構(gòu)成要素,即風(fēng)電成本電價和風(fēng)電上網(wǎng)發(fā)電量。在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了發(fā)電量預(yù)測模型和風(fēng)電成本經(jīng)濟(jì)模型,結(jié)合CDM機(jī)制的碳減排收入特點(diǎn),計(jì)算分析了風(fēng)電成本電價的競爭力以及不同因素對風(fēng)電成本電價的影響,并將風(fēng)電成本與火電成本進(jìn)行了對比分析,采用靈敏度分析的方法,測算出了其中對風(fēng)電成本電價和火電成本電價影響較大的靈敏因素以及各種因素對CDM碳減排收入的靈敏度；在計(jì)算傳統(tǒng)火電成本電價過程中,計(jì)算預(yù)測了電煤價格的發(fā)展趨勢,對未來的火電成本電價也進(jìn)行了預(yù)測,對比研究了未來風(fēng)電與火電的成本電價競爭力,得出了相關(guān)結(jié)論。 本文以內(nèi)蒙古風(fēng)電場及其財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)為研究樣本,根據(jù)模型結(jié)果分析了我國風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)相對于火電的競爭力,并運(yùn)用靈敏度分析原理分析影響我國風(fēng)電成本電價的因素。對比含碳減排收入和不含碳減排收入時的風(fēng)電成本電價,分析兩種情況下靜態(tài)投資額、上網(wǎng)發(fā)電量、運(yùn)營維護(hù)費(fèi)用和貸款利率等因素對我國風(fēng)電成本電價影響的大小。得出了CDM機(jī)制是促進(jìn)我國風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的重要原因的結(jié)論,它與靜態(tài)投資額、年上網(wǎng)發(fā)電量構(gòu)成影響我國風(fēng)電成本電價的最主要因素。在各敏感性因素的協(xié)同作用下,我國風(fēng)電成本具備與火電成本競爭的可能性。
[Abstract]:With the intensification of the global energy crisis, the environmental problems have become prominent, and the countries all over the world have adjusted their energy strategy. As a clean and efficient renewable energy, wind power has become a pillar energy for the implementation of the renewable energy strategy in China, and has gained wide development space and market prospects, with the clean energy development mechanism (CDM) in the wind power market in China. With the extensive application of the field, the development of wind power industry in China is more and more closely related to CDM.
This paper establishes the components of the competitiveness of the wind power industry, that is the wind power cost electricity price and the wind power network power generation. On this basis, the power generation forecast model and the wind power cost economy model are constructed. The competitiveness of the wind power cost electricity price is calculated and analyzed according to the characteristics of the carbon emission reduction income of the CDM mechanism, and the different factors on the wind power cost electricity are analyzed. The effect of price is compared with the cost of wind power and thermal power, and the sensitivity analysis method is used to calculate the sensitivity of the wind power cost and thermal power cost, as well as the sensitivity of various factors to the CDM carbon emission reduction. The development trend of electricity coal price, forecast the electricity price of thermal power cost in the future, compare and study the competitiveness of future wind power and thermal power cost electricity price, and draw some conclusions.
Based on the Inner Mongolia wind farm and its financial data, this paper analyzes the competitiveness of China's wind power industry relative to thermal power according to the results of the model, and analyzes the factors that affect the cost price of wind power in China by using the principle of sensitivity analysis. It compares two kinds of feelings compared with the wind power cost price of carbon emission reduction income and non carbon emission reduction income. The influence of static investment, net power generation, operation maintenance cost and loan interest rate on the cost price of wind power in China. The conclusion is that the CDM mechanism is the important reason to promote the development of China's wind power industry. It is the most important factor affecting the cost price of wind power in China with the static investment amount and the annual net power generation amount. Under the synergistic effect of various sensitivity factors, the cost of wind power in China has the possibility of competition with thermal power costs.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F271;F426.61

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本文編號：1972637