本文選題：電力需求 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)　； 參考：《華僑大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：電力工業(yè)是一個(gè)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)，對(duì)電力的消費(fèi)需求也會(huì)隨之增加，而電力的使用提高了勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)力，從而促進(jìn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。隨著福建經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的進(jìn)一步加快，工業(yè)化和城鎮(zhèn)化速度加快，在它的拉動(dòng)下，電力需求將保持快速增長(zhǎng)，但福建電力發(fā)展中存在一些困難，比如電煤供需矛盾較為突出，短期難以解決，跨區(qū)輸電設(shè)施建設(shè)相對(duì)滯后，在這些因素的影響下，電力供需發(fā)展不均衡，并已成為制約經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的瓶頸。研究電力消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)二者之間的因果關(guān)系及其相互影響的強(qiáng)弱程度，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)、電力行業(yè)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展及相關(guān)政策的制定具有重要參考價(jià)值。 本論文結(jié)合福建省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀、電力發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，從理論方法、實(shí)證分析、建議對(duì)策三個(gè)方面對(duì)福建省電力工業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了深入研究。首先，先選取單因素模型，利用格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整理論、誤差修正模型等在總量和各產(chǎn)業(yè)上對(duì)1988—2012年間福建省電力與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)分析；然后采用多因素模型，引入人口、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化、電力價(jià)格等主要因素，對(duì)電力和經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行多變量實(shí)證分析。最后，得出福建省電力與經(jīng)濟(jì)因果關(guān)系的方向、影響程度的大小以及長(zhǎng)、短期關(guān)系。針對(duì)福建省電力發(fā)展中存在的問(wèn)題，本文提出有效的對(duì)策建議。研究表明，從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，福建省的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與電力消費(fèi)之間存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系。電力消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在協(xié)整關(guān)系；從短時(shí)期內(nèi)看，存在從電力消費(fèi)到經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)單向格蘭杰原因，但不存在從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)到電力消費(fèi)的格蘭杰原因。電力是國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要推動(dòng)力，電力供應(yīng)充足，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展有重要的促進(jìn)作用，反之，則有制約作用。應(yīng)當(dāng)加強(qiáng)電力工業(yè)設(shè)施的建設(shè)，提高管理水平，電力行業(yè)也應(yīng)主動(dòng)適應(yīng)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的新要求，加快結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)，這一切的目的都是為了確保電力的充足供應(yīng)，為經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)發(fā)展提供重要保障。 本文通過(guò)對(duì)福建電力與經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系的多因素進(jìn)行分析，得出影響電力消費(fèi)的主要因素是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和人民生活水平。居民收入增加，，消費(fèi)水平提高，用電量就會(huì)隨之提高，因此要大力提倡人人節(jié)約用電，培養(yǎng)良好的節(jié)約用電習(xí)慣，建設(shè)節(jié)約型社會(huì)。第二產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)與電力的關(guān)系較為緊密，改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)，福建省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)及層次比周邊沿海省份低且不合理，因此大力促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化、高級(jí)化有利于經(jīng)濟(jì)又好又快發(fā)展，同時(shí)也有利于促進(jìn)電力的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The electric power industry is the foundation of a country's economic development. With the economic growth, the consumption demand for electricity will also increase, and the use of electric power will improve the labor productivity and thus promote the economic growth. With the further acceleration of Fujian's economic growth and the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the demand for electricity will maintain a rapid growth, but there are some difficulties in Fujian's electric power development, for example, the contradiction between the supply and demand of thermal coal is more prominent. It is difficult to solve in the short term, and the construction of transregional transmission facilities is relatively lagging behind. Under the influence of these factors, the development of power supply and demand is not balanced, and has become the bottleneck restricting economic growth. The study of the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth and the degree of their mutual influence have important reference value for the coordinated development of economy and electric power industry and the formulation of relevant policies. In this paper, the relationship between Fujian electric power industry and economic development is studied from three aspects: theory and method, empirical analysis and suggestions on the current situation of economic development and economic development in Fujian Province. Firstly, the single factor model is selected, and the relationship between electricity and economic growth in Fujian Province from 1988 to 2012 is analyzed systematically by Granger causality test, cointegration theory and error correction model. Then the multivariate empirical analysis of the relationship between electricity and economy is carried out by introducing the main factors such as population, industrial structure change, electricity price and so on. Finally, the direction of causality between electricity and economy in Fujian Province, the magnitude of influence degree and the relationship between long and short term are obtained. Aiming at the problems existing in the electric power development of Fujian Province, this paper puts forward some effective countermeasures and suggestions. The results show that there is a stable equilibrium relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption in Fujian Province in the long run. There is a cointegration relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth, and in a short period of time, there are Granger reasons from electricity consumption to economic growth, but there is no Granger reason from economic growth to electricity consumption. Electric power is an important driving force for the development of national economy. The power supply is sufficient and plays an important role in promoting economic development. The construction of power industry facilities should be strengthened and the management level should be raised. The electric power industry should also take the initiative to adapt to the new requirements of China's economic transformation and speed up the structural adjustment and upgrading, all of which are aimed at ensuring an adequate supply of electricity. To provide the important safeguard for the sustainable development of the economy. Based on the analysis of the relationship between Fujian electric power and economy, this paper concludes that the main factors influencing the power consumption are the industrial structure and the living standards of the people. With the increase of residents' income and the improvement of consumption level, the consumption of electricity will increase. Therefore, it is necessary to strongly advocate everyone to save electricity, cultivate a good habit of saving electricity, and build a conservation-oriented society. Since the reform and opening up, the industrial structure and level of Fujian Province is lower and unreasonable than that of the surrounding coastal provinces. Therefore, we should vigorously promote the rationalization of the industrial structure, which is conducive to the sound and rapid development of the economy. At the same time, it is beneficial to promote the sustainable development of electric power.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61;F124

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