本文選題：天然氣 + 價格改革�。� 參考：《廈門大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國正處于加速推進工業(yè)化和城市化的發(fā)展階段,隨之產(chǎn)生的剛性能源需求導致了溫室氣體排放、霧霾等一系列日益嚴峻的環(huán)境問題,在國際上面臨著巨大的減排壓力,在國內面臨著大氣污染防治的難題。另一方面,能源需求量的急劇增加使得我國的能源安全受到了前所未有的威脅：石油資源的對外依存度上升,煤炭資源的開采利用受到環(huán)境壓力的限制,而許多新能源的推廣又受制于現(xiàn)有技術水平,只能作為常規(guī)能源的補充。因此在經(jīng)濟尋求低碳發(fā)展之路和能源環(huán)境大轉型的敏感時期,天然氣作為一種高效、清潔、優(yōu)質的能源已受到越來越多的重視。特別是美國頁巖氣的開發(fā)和大規(guī)模應用,更是在全球引發(fā)了一場“氣化革命”,這預示著天然氣資源將迎來發(fā)展的黃金時期。目前,我國的天然氣資源在一次能源結構中所占比例僅5%左右,且存在價格壟斷、過度價格管制、價格梯度倒置、與可替代能源比價不合理、各產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈價格結構不合理等一系列問題。因此,為保障天然氣長期供應,促進天然氣工業(yè)發(fā)展和市場競爭,必須對天然氣價格的形成機制進行全面的改革。天然氣價格改革是保證我國天然氣供求平衡、促進天然氣工業(yè)升級發(fā)展、保障我國能源安全和實現(xiàn)低碳經(jīng)濟轉型發(fā)展的必由之路。 本文首先全面分析了我國天然氣資源的開發(fā)和利用現(xiàn)狀,包括天然氣資源的生產(chǎn)、消費、進口現(xiàn)狀和發(fā)展趨勢,展望了天然氣的發(fā)展前景,并在此基礎上梳理了近年來關于天然氣資源開發(fā)利用的政策規(guī)劃。進而借鑒國外天然氣價格改革的經(jīng)驗,從縱向和橫向兩方面深入剖析我國天然氣價格改革的歷程,其中重點分析了兩廣試點改革和試點改革全國推廣的主要內容與影響。在理清我國天然氣價格改革發(fā)展歷程的基礎上,本文通過實證分析發(fā)現(xiàn)從2005年12月開始進行的天然氣價格改革在一定程度上強化了國內工業(yè)天然氣價格對國際原油價格的長期反應,切實推進了油氣價格聯(lián)動機制的建立。在此基礎上,進一步考慮產(chǎn)業(yè)關聯(lián)和成本傳導效應,利用投入產(chǎn)出模型分析天然氣價格調整的影響,發(fā)現(xiàn)城鎮(zhèn)居民受天然氣價格上漲影響最大,其次是工業(yè)生產(chǎn)；天然氣價格上漲還會帶動各種價格指數(shù)不同程度的上漲,但整體影響較小。最后,在以替代能源價格和國際天然氣價格作為參考價格的兩種情形下,本文利用價差法分部門估算了2010-2012年我國天然氣的補貼規(guī)模。 在實證分析的基礎上,本文提出以下政策建議：一是要做好我國天然氣戰(zhàn)略部署和需求預測工作；二是要進一步完善現(xiàn)行的以市場凈回值法為基礎、與替代能源相掛鉤的定價機制,并從產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的角度有針對性地實行各個環(huán)節(jié)的價格改革,促進上中下游價格的市場化和一體化；三是為保障居民用氣的基本需求,在改革過程中要設計合理的補貼等配套措施和財稅政策；四是進一步完善相關的法規(guī)和制度,如健全與天然氣開發(fā)利用相關的法律法規(guī)體系和完善價格聽證制度；五是逐步推進我國整個能源價格體系的市場化進程。
[Abstract]:China is in the stage of accelerating the development of industrialization and urbanization. The resulting rigid energy demand leads to greenhouse gas emissions, fog and haze and a series of increasingly severe environmental problems, facing enormous pressure of emission reduction in the world, facing the problem of air pollution prevention and treatment in China. On the other hand, the sharp energy demand is sharp. The increase of the energy security of China has been an unprecedented threat: the increase of foreign dependence on oil resources, the exploitation and utilization of coal resources is restricted by environmental pressure, and the promotion of many new energy sources is subject to the existing technical level, only as a supplement to conventional energy. Therefore, the road and energy of low-carbon development are sought in the economy. In the sensitive period of the great transformation of the environment, natural gas has been paid more and more attention as a kind of efficient, clean and high quality energy. In particular, the development and large-scale application of shale gas in the United States has caused a "gasification revolution" in the world, which indicates that natural gas resources will usher in the golden period of development. The proportion of the source in the primary energy structure is only about 5%, and there is a series of problems, such as price monopoly, excessive price control, reverse price gradient, unreasonable price ratio and unreasonable price structure of each industry chain. Therefore, natural gas price must be guaranteed to protect natural gas supply and promote the development of natural gas industry and market competition. The natural gas price reform is the only way to ensure the balance of natural gas supply and demand, promote the upgrading and development of natural gas industry, guarantee the energy security of our country and realize the transformation and development of low carbon economy.
This paper first comprehensively analyzes the development and utilization of natural gas resources in China, including the production, consumption, import status and development trend of natural gas resources, and looks forward to the development prospect of natural gas. On this basis, the policy planning of natural gas resources development and utilization in recent years is combed, and then the foreign natural gas price reform is used for reference. From the two aspects of the vertical and horizontal aspects, this paper analyzes the course of China's natural gas price reform, focusing on the main content and influence of the pilot reform and the pilot reform in China. On the basis of clarifying the course of the reform and development of China's natural gas price, this paper has found that it began in December 2005. The price reform of natural gas has strengthened the long-term reaction of domestic industrial natural gas price to the international crude oil price to a certain extent and promoted the establishment of the linkage mechanism of oil and gas prices. On this basis, the effect of industrial association and cost transmission is further considered, and the impact of the price adjustment of natural gas is analyzed by input-output model, and the cities and towns are found. The population is most affected by the rising price of natural gas, followed by industrial production; the rising price of natural gas will also lead to the rise of various price indices, but the overall impact is small. Finally, under the two feelings of alternative energy prices and international natural gas prices as reference prices, this paper uses the price difference method to estimate 2010-2 sectors. The size of China's natural gas subsidies for the past 012 years.
On the basis of the empirical analysis, this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: first, we should do a good job in China's natural gas strategic deployment and demand forecasting; two, we should further improve the current market net return method as the basis, the pricing mechanism linked to the alternative energy, and carry out the price of each link from the angle of the industrial chain. Reform to promote the market and integration of prices in the upper and lower reaches of the middle and lower reaches; three to ensure the basic demand for gas for the residents, to design reasonable subsidies and other supporting measures and fiscal and tax policies in the process of reform; and the four is to further improve the relevant regulations and systems, such as perfecting the legal system and improving the price related to the exploitation and utilization of natural gas. The five is to gradually promote the marketization of the whole energy price system in China.
【學位授予單位】：廈門大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.22

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