發(fā)布時間：2018-04-22 03:08

  本文選題：能源消費 + 出口貿(mào)易��； 參考：《廣東外語外貿(mào)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)快速的增長，與此同時，能源消費量急劇增加。在外貿(mào)領(lǐng)域，中國實行出口導(dǎo)向戰(zhàn)略，，出口貿(mào)易拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長。但由于出口產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)不合理，能源利用率低，再加上能源浪費嚴(yán)重，加劇了中國的高能耗和高污染。隨著能源供應(yīng)的日益緊張，能源已經(jīng)成為制約中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的瓶頸。降低能耗會不會影響出口貿(mào)易？出口貿(mào)易的快速發(fā)展又會對能源消費有怎樣的影響？本文將圍繞上述問題展開研究，并且重點研究出口貿(mào)易對能源消費的影響。 本文在分析能源消費與出口貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上，綜合運用面板模型分析方法與因素分解法來分析能源消費與出口貿(mào)易的關(guān)系。首先，關(guān)于中國能源消費與出口貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀的描述性統(tǒng)計表示，中國能源消費與出口貿(mào)易都存在規(guī)模大，增速快的特點。其次，運用面板模型分析方法從全國和地區(qū)兩個層面對能源消費與出口貿(mào)易之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了分析。選取能源消費、收入、能源價格和出口貿(mào)易四個變量，運用面板單位根檢驗、面板協(xié)整檢驗、誤差修正模型方法，對出口貿(mào)易與能源消費之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行檢驗。得出初步結(jié)論：不管是短期還是長期，能源消費和出口貿(mào)易之間存在很強(qiáng)的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系。再次，運用因素分解法從行業(yè)層面測算了出口貿(mào)易對能源消費的影響。結(jié)果顯示，技術(shù)效應(yīng)為負(fù)，結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)和規(guī)模效應(yīng)為正，并且規(guī)模效應(yīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)和技術(shù)效應(yīng)之和，所以最終出口貿(mào)易對能源消費的凈效應(yīng)為正，說明出口貿(mào)易規(guī)模的增大是導(dǎo)致能源消費量增長的主要原因。 最后，在實證分析的基礎(chǔ)上，得出一些啟示：一方面，中國出口貿(mào)易規(guī)模的不斷擴(kuò)大以及經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷擴(kuò)張，對能源消費的需求仍在加大。另一方面，中國目前能源使用效率偏低，必須不斷改善能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)，改變原有的能源消費方式，不斷從粗放型發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榧s型發(fā)展方式。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has continued to grow rapidly, at the same time, energy consumption has increased sharply. In the field of foreign trade, China implements an export-oriented strategy, which leads to rapid economic growth. However, China's high energy consumption and high pollution are aggravated by the irrational structure of export products, low energy efficiency and serious energy waste. With the increasingly tight energy supply, energy has become a bottleneck restricting China's economic growth. Will lower energy consumption affect export trade? What impact will the rapid development of export trade have on energy consumption? This paper will focus on the above issues, and focus on the impact of export trade on energy consumption. Based on the analysis of the current situation of energy consumption and export trade, this paper analyzes the relationship between energy consumption and export trade by using panel model analysis method and factor decomposition method. First of all, the descriptive statistics on the current situation of China's energy consumption and export trade show that China's energy consumption and export trade have the characteristics of large scale and fast growth. Secondly, the relationship between energy consumption and export trade is analyzed from national and regional levels by using panel model analysis method. Four variables, energy consumption, income, energy price and export trade, are selected to test the relationship between export trade and energy consumption by using panel unit root test, panel cointegration test and error correction model method. The preliminary conclusion is that there is a strong Granger causality between energy consumption and export trade in the short-term and long-term. Thirdly, the influence of export trade on energy consumption is measured by factor decomposition method. The results show that the technological effect is negative, the structural effect and the scale effect are positive, and the scale effect is much larger than the sum of the structural effect and the technological effect, so the net effect of the final export trade on energy consumption is positive. The increase in the scale of export trade is the main reason leading to the growth of energy consumption. Finally, on the basis of empirical analysis, some enlightenments are obtained: on the one hand, with the expansion of China's export trade and economy, the demand for energy consumption is still increasing. On the other hand, the current energy use efficiency in China is on the low side, so we must constantly improve the energy consumption structure, change the original energy consumption mode, and constantly change from extensive development mode to intensive development mode.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東外語外貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.2;F752.62

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本文編號：1785319