本文選題：電力市場　切入點：輸配電　出處：《河北工程大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：電力市場是電力商品交換關(guān)系發(fā)生的載體，同時也是關(guān)系到國家能源安全穩(wěn)定的關(guān)鍵因素，是整個國民經(jīng)濟得以順利發(fā)展的重要保障。電力市場的供需關(guān)系研究也成為了目前國家重點研究的方向和目標，輸配電的價格以及輸配電量的使用成為了關(guān)系民生的重大問題。 本文對比分析了國內(nèi)外電力市場領(lǐng)域的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，，選取中國的電力傳輸和分配為重點研究對象，闡述了我國電力價格管理系統(tǒng)的開發(fā)過程，全面介紹了內(nèi)部和外部因素的發(fā)展考慮價格。然后介紹了我國輸配電價格的兩種管制機制，強調(diào)了實施階梯式定價的意義。其次闡述了輸配電預(yù)測的相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ)和預(yù)測方法技術(shù)，對目前比較流行的時間序列、灰色模型預(yù)測法和神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測技術(shù)三大預(yù)測技術(shù)進行系統(tǒng)的分析和研究。最后列出了電力負荷預(yù)測的具體步驟，提供了一個完整的電力負荷的預(yù)測流程。 由于輸配電的發(fā)展同國民經(jīng)濟重點行業(yè)有著某種線性關(guān)系，所以本文以線性回歸模型為切入點，利用一元線性回歸和多元線性回歸對電力行業(yè)進行相關(guān)性研究。通過建立線性回歸模型，對河北省某地區(qū)的用電量和使用情況進行研究和預(yù)測，為企業(yè)的經(jīng)濟抉擇提供必要的參考依據(jù)。本文旨在通過實例研究來驗證該方法在電力領(lǐng)域輸配電預(yù)測方面的有效性和可行性。
[Abstract]:The electricity market is the carrier of the power commodity exchange relationship, and also the key factor related to the national energy security and stability. It is an important guarantee for the smooth development of the whole national economy, and the research on the supply and demand relationship of the electricity market has also become the direction and goal of the national key research at present, and the price of transmission and distribution and the use of the quantity of transmission and distribution have become the major problems related to the people's livelihood. This paper compares and analyzes the development situation of domestic and foreign electric power market, selects the electric power transmission and distribution in China as the key research object, and expounds the development process of the electric power price management system in our country. This paper introduces the development of internal and external factors considering price, and then introduces the two control mechanisms of transmission and distribution price in China. The significance of implementing step pricing is emphasized. Secondly, the related theoretical basis of transmission and distribution forecasting and forecasting methods and techniques are expounded, and the more popular time series are discussed. The grey model forecasting method and neural network forecasting technology are systematically analyzed and studied. Finally, the concrete steps of power load forecasting are listed, and a complete power load forecasting flow is provided. Since the development of transmission and distribution has some linear relationship with the key industries of the national economy, this paper takes the linear regression model as the breakthrough point. This paper studies the correlation of electric power industry with linear regression and multivariate linear regression. Through the establishment of linear regression model, the electricity consumption and usage in a certain area of Hebei Province are studied and forecasted. The purpose of this paper is to prove the validity and feasibility of this method in power transmission and distribution prediction through a case study.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.61;F224

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