本文選題：供應鏈管理　切入點：風險預警　出處：《哈爾濱商業(yè)大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：自2005以來,中國采取了一系列降低進口關稅的措施,取消進口汽車配額,汽車下鄉(xiāng)補貼,使汽車銷量的增長。汽車制造企業(yè)當前的發(fā)展經歷了從傳統(tǒng)的散裝的制造商獨立部件的生產,組裝,銷售的全過程,為上下游節(jié)點開發(fā)公司專注于自身核心競爭力的理由,完成一系列的零部件采購,制造,銷售,分銷活動,汽車供應鏈網絡。汽車制造企業(yè)與其他企業(yè),工藝,工藝復雜,技術含量高,對供應鏈合作伙伴關系,是一個比較復雜的供應鏈系統(tǒng),存在的潛在汽車制造企業(yè)供應鏈風險較大。況且汽車制造產業(yè)還是一個支撐著我國經濟的主力產業(yè),所以對我國的、每一個汽車制造產業(yè)都進行必要的風險預警的管理是非常有現實意義的,因為這有助于我國經濟的平穩(wěn)發(fā)展。 在認真的討論和研究國內外的各種制造企業(yè)相關的供應鏈對風險研究的現狀之后,將關于汽車制造產業(yè)的供應鏈理論作為研討的依據、從哪里能夠產生對于汽車制造企業(yè)供應鏈造成風險的因素,如何對存在于企業(yè)供應鏈當中的風險加以分辨,并且從宏觀的角度將汽車制造企業(yè)的供應鏈進行徹底的認識、以及合作關系和企業(yè)能力,在這三個方面來對汽車制造企業(yè)的供應鏈進行分析與研究。在以上工作全部完成的前提下構建出一套完整的體系,這個體系當中包含了20個汽車制造企業(yè)供應鏈的風險指標,這個體系混運用一種叫做采用因子分析法的方法來將初始指標逐個分析選擇,最后保留4個一級風險預警指標和13個二級預警指標,并將他們組成一個新的預警指標體系。對于每個指標的預警線來說要運用定性與定量相結合的方法將其建立起來。能夠成功的建立起來 一個目標預警指標體系的前提下在,靈活的利用一種叫做BP神經網絡的概念將汽車制造企業(yè)供應鏈模型給建立起來,這種模型會運用到對汽車制造企業(yè)供應鏈風險進行測量的方面研究上去,將上述的測量結果與汽車制造企業(yè)供應鏈風險警度表相融合,通過-系列的算法來把預警結果得出,然后在通過這些預警結果去制定一個方案來解決這些風險問題。 在對汽車制造企業(yè)供應鏈風險預警的實際狀況進行深入研究而且做過仔細的調查之后,能夠證明前文描述過的汽車制造企業(yè)供應鏈風險預警模型對汽車制造企業(yè)供應鏈風險預警指標體系非常的有效果且特別的實用,并且能夠提供一個資料用來為想要對汽車制造業(yè)供應鏈風險企業(yè)的預防控制的企業(yè)用來借鑒。
[Abstract]:Since 2005, China has adopted a series of measures to reduce import tariffs, eliminate quotas on imported cars, and subsidize cars going to the countryside. The current development of automobile manufacturing enterprises has experienced the whole process of producing, assembling and selling independent parts of traditional bulk manufacturers, which is the reason why upstream and downstream development companies focus on their core competitiveness. Complete a series of parts procurement, manufacturing, sales, distribution activities, automotive supply chain network. Automotive manufacturing enterprises and other enterprises, process, process complexity, technology content, supply chain partnership, It is a relatively complex supply chain system, and the potential automobile manufacturing enterprises have greater supply chain risks. Moreover, the automobile manufacturing industry is still a major industry supporting the economy of our country, so to our country, It is of great practical significance for every automobile manufacturing industry to carry out the necessary risk warning management, because it is helpful to the steady development of our economy. After seriously discussing and studying the current situation of supply chain risk research in various manufacturing enterprises at home and abroad, the supply chain theory of automobile manufacturing industry is taken as the basis of the research. From where to produce the risk factors for the automobile manufacturing enterprise supply chain, how to distinguish the risk existing in the enterprise supply chain, and from the macro perspective, the supply chain of the automobile manufacturing enterprise can be thoroughly understood. As well as the cooperation relationship and the enterprise ability, in these three aspects to carry on the analysis and the research to the automobile manufacture enterprise's supply chain. Under the premise that the above work completes completely, constructs a set of complete system, This system contains the risk indicators of supply chain of 20 automobile manufacturing enterprises. This system uses a method called factor analysis method to analyze and select the initial indicators one by one. Finally, the retention of 4 first-level risk early warning indicators and 13 second-level early warning indicators, And they will form a new early warning index system. For each index of the early warning line, the use of qualitative and quantitative methods to establish it, can be successfully built up. Under the premise of a target early warning index system, using a concept called BP neural network flexibly, the supply chain model of automobile manufacturing enterprises is established. This model will be applied to the research on the measurement of supply chain risk of automobile manufacturing enterprises. The above measurement results will be combined with the risk alarm table of supply chain of automobile manufacturing enterprises, and the early warning results will be obtained through the-series algorithm. Then work out a plan to address these risks through these early warning results. After a thorough study of the actual situation of supply chain risk warning in automobile manufacturing enterprises and a careful investigation, It can prove that the supply chain risk early warning model described above is very effective and practical to the supply chain risk early warning index system of automobile manufacturing enterprises. And can provide a data for the automotive supply chain risk enterprises want to use prevention and control for reference.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱商業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.471;F274

【共引文獻】

相關期刊論文 前1條

1 劉愛華;吳超;;基于復雜網絡的災害鏈風險評估方法的研究[J];系統(tǒng)工程理論與實踐;2015年02期

相關碩士學位論文 前2條

1 鄭瑩;中國自主品牌汽車出口研究[D];哈爾濱商業(yè)大學;2014年

2 張東東;基于風向預測的風電機組偏航系統(tǒng)的研究[D];新疆農業(yè)大學;2014年

，

本文編號：1615642