本文選題：供應(yīng)鏈管理　切入點：風險預(yù)警　出處：《哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自2005以來,中國采取了一系列降低進口關(guān)稅的措施,取消進口汽車配額,汽車下鄉(xiāng)補貼,使汽車銷量的增長。汽車制造企業(yè)當前的發(fā)展經(jīng)歷了從傳統(tǒng)的散裝的制造商獨立部件的生產(chǎn),組裝,銷售的全過程,為上下游節(jié)點開發(fā)公司專注于自身核心競爭力的理由,完成一系列的零部件采購,制造,銷售,分銷活動,汽車供應(yīng)鏈網(wǎng)絡(luò)。汽車制造企業(yè)與其他企業(yè),工藝,工藝復(fù)雜,技術(shù)含量高,對供應(yīng)鏈合作伙伴關(guān)系,是一個比較復(fù)雜的供應(yīng)鏈系統(tǒng),存在的潛在汽車制造企業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈風險較大。況且汽車制造產(chǎn)業(yè)還是一個支撐著我國經(jīng)濟的主力產(chǎn)業(yè),所以對我國的、每一個汽車制造產(chǎn)業(yè)都進行必要的風險預(yù)警的管理是非常有現(xiàn)實意義的,因為這有助于我國經(jīng)濟的平穩(wěn)發(fā)展。 在認真的討論和研究國內(nèi)外的各種制造企業(yè)相關(guān)的供應(yīng)鏈對風險研究的現(xiàn)狀之后,將關(guān)于汽車制造產(chǎn)業(yè)的供應(yīng)鏈理論作為研討的依據(jù)、從哪里能夠產(chǎn)生對于汽車制造企業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈造成風險的因素,如何對存在于企業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈當中的風險加以分辨,并且從宏觀的角度將汽車制造企業(yè)的供應(yīng)鏈進行徹底的認識、以及合作關(guān)系和企業(yè)能力,在這三個方面來對汽車制造企業(yè)的供應(yīng)鏈進行分析與研究。在以上工作全部完成的前提下構(gòu)建出一套完整的體系,這個體系當中包含了20個汽車制造企業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈的風險指標,這個體系混運用一種叫做采用因子分析法的方法來將初始指標逐個分析選擇,最后保留4個一級風險預(yù)警指標和13個二級預(yù)警指標,并將他們組成一個新的預(yù)警指標體系。對于每個指標的預(yù)警線來說要運用定性與定量相結(jié)合的方法將其建立起來。能夠成功的建立起來 一個目標預(yù)警指標體系的前提下在,靈活的利用一種叫做BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的概念將汽車制造企業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈模型給建立起來,這種模型會運用到對汽車制造企業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈風險進行測量的方面研究上去,將上述的測量結(jié)果與汽車制造企業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈風險警度表相融合,通過-系列的算法來把預(yù)警結(jié)果得出,然后在通過這些預(yù)警結(jié)果去制定一個方案來解決這些風險問題。 在對汽車制造企業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈風險預(yù)警的實際狀況進行深入研究而且做過仔細的調(diào)查之后,能夠證明前文描述過的汽車制造企業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈風險預(yù)警模型對汽車制造企業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈風險預(yù)警指標體系非常的有效果且特別的實用,并且能夠提供一個資料用來為想要對汽車制造業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈風險企業(yè)的預(yù)防控制的企業(yè)用來借鑒。
[Abstract]:Since 2005, China has adopted a series of measures to reduce import tariffs, eliminate quotas on imported cars, and subsidize cars going to the countryside. The current development of automobile manufacturing enterprises has experienced the whole process of producing, assembling and selling independent parts of traditional bulk manufacturers, which is the reason why upstream and downstream development companies focus on their core competitiveness. Complete a series of parts procurement, manufacturing, sales, distribution activities, automotive supply chain network. Automotive manufacturing enterprises and other enterprises, process, process complexity, technology content, supply chain partnership, It is a relatively complex supply chain system, and the potential automobile manufacturing enterprises have greater supply chain risks. Moreover, the automobile manufacturing industry is still a major industry supporting the economy of our country, so to our country, It is of great practical significance for every automobile manufacturing industry to carry out the necessary risk warning management, because it is helpful to the steady development of our economy. After seriously discussing and studying the current situation of supply chain risk research in various manufacturing enterprises at home and abroad, the supply chain theory of automobile manufacturing industry is taken as the basis of the research. From where to produce the risk factors for the automobile manufacturing enterprise supply chain, how to distinguish the risk existing in the enterprise supply chain, and from the macro perspective, the supply chain of the automobile manufacturing enterprise can be thoroughly understood. As well as the cooperation relationship and the enterprise ability, in these three aspects to carry on the analysis and the research to the automobile manufacture enterprise's supply chain. Under the premise that the above work completes completely, constructs a set of complete system, This system contains the risk indicators of supply chain of 20 automobile manufacturing enterprises. This system uses a method called factor analysis method to analyze and select the initial indicators one by one. Finally, the retention of 4 first-level risk early warning indicators and 13 second-level early warning indicators, And they will form a new early warning index system. For each index of the early warning line, the use of qualitative and quantitative methods to establish it, can be successfully built up. Under the premise of a target early warning index system, using a concept called BP neural network flexibly, the supply chain model of automobile manufacturing enterprises is established. This model will be applied to the research on the measurement of supply chain risk of automobile manufacturing enterprises. The above measurement results will be combined with the risk alarm table of supply chain of automobile manufacturing enterprises, and the early warning results will be obtained through the-series algorithm. Then work out a plan to address these risks through these early warning results. After a thorough study of the actual situation of supply chain risk warning in automobile manufacturing enterprises and a careful investigation, It can prove that the supply chain risk early warning model described above is very effective and practical to the supply chain risk early warning index system of automobile manufacturing enterprises. And can provide a data for the automotive supply chain risk enterprises want to use prevention and control for reference.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.471;F274

【共引文獻】

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1 劉愛華;吳超;;基于復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)的災(zāi)害鏈風險評估方法的研究[J];系統(tǒng)工程理論與實踐;2015年02期

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1 鄭瑩;中國自主品牌汽車出口研究[D];哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué);2014年

2 張東東;基于風向預(yù)測的風電機組偏航系統(tǒng)的研究[D];新疆農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué);2014年

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本文編號：1615642