本文選題：歸果生命周期評(píng)價(jià)　切入點(diǎn)：電動(dòng)汽車(chē)　出處：《天津大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著國(guó)際石油價(jià)格不斷走高和環(huán)境污染的持續(xù)加重,低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)逐漸走入公眾的視野。新能源汽車(chē)以其高效率和低污染的特點(diǎn)成為汽車(chē)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的重要方向。《“十二五”國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略性新興產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)劃》中明確指出:“以純電驅(qū)動(dòng)為新能源汽車(chē)發(fā)展和汽車(chē)工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的主要戰(zhàn)略取向”。由此可見(jiàn),電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的發(fā)展已成為必然趨勢(shì),并將成為我國(guó)未來(lái)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)的主力。在中國(guó)背景下,電動(dòng)汽車(chē)能否替代傳統(tǒng)汽油車(chē),并實(shí)現(xiàn)節(jié)能減排目的已然成為我國(guó)政府、企業(yè)和公眾關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。本文在對(duì)歸因和歸果生命周期評(píng)價(jià)方法理論與應(yīng)用分析的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了基于決策對(duì)象——決策者偏好影響類(lèi)型的兩種方法的選擇模型,并利用歸果生命周期評(píng)價(jià)思想,采用傳統(tǒng)生命周期評(píng)價(jià)與生命周期成本相結(jié)合的方法對(duì)四款車(chē)型:純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)、混合動(dòng)力汽車(chē)和插電式混合動(dòng)力汽車(chē)以及傳統(tǒng)汽油車(chē)進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)估。以中國(guó)為背景,建立電動(dòng)汽車(chē)歸果生命周期評(píng)價(jià)模型,利用生命周期評(píng)價(jià)軟件GREET2012對(duì)從油井到車(chē)輪的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)燃料周期的能源消耗、溫室氣體排放和常規(guī)氣體排放進(jìn)行綜合分析,并與傳統(tǒng)汽油車(chē)對(duì)比分析,評(píng)估電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的環(huán)境效益;建立電動(dòng)汽車(chē)生命周期成本評(píng)價(jià)模型,對(duì)比分析四款車(chē)型的經(jīng)濟(jì)成本,評(píng)價(jià)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。最后綜合考慮電動(dòng)汽車(chē)學(xué)習(xí)效應(yīng)和規(guī)模效應(yīng),從環(huán)境和經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的角度出發(fā),為我國(guó)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)產(chǎn)業(yè)的可持續(xù)推進(jìn)及決策提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。本文主要結(jié)論如下:1.在中國(guó)背景下,純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)、混合動(dòng)力汽車(chē)和插電式混合動(dòng)力汽車(chē)燃料周期的總能源消耗與傳統(tǒng)汽油車(chē)相比,分別降低14.4%、27.9%和28.0%,其中,純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的石油消耗最少,與傳統(tǒng)汽油車(chē)相比降低了95%。2.當(dāng)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的電力獲得主要途徑是煤炭發(fā)電時(shí),其環(huán)境效益并不明顯,純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)甚至出現(xiàn)負(fù)效益。與傳統(tǒng)汽油車(chē)相比,在氣體排放方面,純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的PM10、PM2.5和SO2排放都高于傳統(tǒng)汽油車(chē),其減排效益為-15.5%。3.當(dāng)擴(kuò)大風(fēng)電、水電等清潔能源發(fā)電途徑的應(yīng)用范圍時(shí),汽車(chē)生命周期節(jié)能減排效果會(huì)隨著動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)電氣化的發(fā)展而提高。4.與傳統(tǒng)汽油車(chē)相比,電動(dòng)汽車(chē)生命周期成本優(yōu)勢(shì)不明顯。純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的電池成本高,導(dǎo)致其總成本比傳統(tǒng)汽油車(chē)要高。但是,隨著技術(shù)學(xué)習(xí)效應(yīng)和規(guī)模效應(yīng)的加強(qiáng),純電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的成本會(huì)逐步降低,經(jīng)濟(jì)效益會(huì)提高。
[Abstract]:As international oil prices continue to rise and environmental pollution continues to increase, The low-carbon economy is gradually coming into the public's view. New energy vehicles, with their characteristics of high efficiency and low pollution, have become an important direction in the transformation of the automobile industry. In the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", the National Strategic emerging Industry Development Plan clearly points out: "with the. Pure electric drive is the main strategic orientation for the development of new energy vehicles and the transformation of the automobile industry. The development of electric vehicles has become an inevitable trend and will become the main force of the future automobile market in China. Under the background of China, whether electric vehicles can replace the traditional gasoline vehicles and achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction has become the government of our country. Based on the analysis of the theory and application of attribution and fruit life cycle evaluation method, this paper constructs a selection model of two methods based on the decision object-decision maker preference influence type. By using the idea of life cycle evaluation of Gui Guo and the method of combining traditional life cycle evaluation with life cycle cost, four types of vehicle models are studied: pure electric vehicle, electric vehicle (EV), electric vehicle (EV), electric vehicle (EV), Hybrid electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle and traditional gasoline vehicle were comprehensively evaluated. Based on the background of China, the life cycle evaluation model of electric vehicle was established. The energy consumption, greenhouse gas emission and conventional gas emission in fuel cycle of electric vehicle from oil well to wheel are comprehensively analyzed by using life cycle evaluation software GREET2012, and compared with traditional gasoline vehicle, the environmental benefit of electric vehicle is evaluated. The life cycle cost evaluation model of electric vehicle is established, the economic cost of four models is compared and analyzed, and the economic benefit of electric vehicle is evaluated. Finally, considering the learning effect and scale effect of electric vehicle, the paper sets out from the point of view of environment and economic benefit. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. Under the background of China, pure electric vehicles, Compared with traditional gasoline vehicles, the total energy consumption of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles is reduced by 14.427% and 28.0% respectively, of which pure electric vehicles consume the least amount of oil. Compared with the traditional gasoline vehicle, it is 95% lower than the traditional gasoline car. When the main way for electric vehicle to get electricity is coal power generation, the environmental benefit is not obvious, the pure electric vehicle even has negative benefit. Pure electric vehicles (EVs) emit more PM10, PM2.5 and SO2 emissions than conventional gasoline vehicles, and their emission reduction benefits are -15.50.3.When the scope of application of clean energy sources such as wind power and hydropower is expanded, The efficiency of energy saving and emission reduction in vehicle life cycle will be improved with the development of electrification of power system. Compared with the traditional gasoline vehicle, the advantage of life cycle cost of electric vehicle is not obvious. The battery cost of pure electric vehicle is high. As a result, the total cost of pure electric vehicle is higher than that of traditional gasoline vehicle. However, with the enhancement of technological learning effect and scale effect, the cost of pure electric vehicle will be reduced gradually and the economic benefit will be improved.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.471

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