本文選題：能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率　切入點(diǎn)：面板模型　出處：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在過去的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過程中,我國一直采取粗放式的發(fā)展模式,單位產(chǎn)值能耗極高,因此急需提高我國能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率。我國地域廣袤,各地的資源稟賦差異很大,造就了較大的地區(qū)性差異。本文的目的在于,在考慮各區(qū)域的空間特征和效率差異的基礎(chǔ)上,創(chuàng)新性地引入聚類分析方法對能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率區(qū)域進(jìn)行劃分來表征各區(qū)域的空間同質(zhì)性特征,對我國的能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率進(jìn)行分析,使得得出的結(jié)果更有針對性和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。在理論分析方面,本文通過對能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率定義的分析,認(rèn)為影響能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率的主要因素包括產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、技術(shù)進(jìn)步、能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)和能源價(jià)格。在實(shí)證分析方面,本文以能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率為考察核心,首先將我國30個(gè)省(直轄市、自治區(qū))(除西藏外)劃分成能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率高、中、低三類區(qū)域。通過使用2005——2012年的面板數(shù)據(jù)建立能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率的長期均衡模型和短期誤差修正模型,探究變量因素在長期和短期對各區(qū)域能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率的影響,并根據(jù)分析結(jié)果提出相應(yīng)的政策以達(dá)到提高能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率的目的。本文得出的主要結(jié)論有,第一,影響能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率的五個(gè)因素中,技術(shù)進(jìn)步只對能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率的長期均衡有影響,其他因素在長期和短期均有影響；第二,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對三類區(qū)域的能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率的長期均衡和短期波動均有影響,高能效區(qū)域能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率受該因素的影響最大；第三,工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)長期和短期對低能效區(qū)域的影響都是最大的：第四,能源價(jià)格短期只對高能效區(qū)域的能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率有波動性影響,長期來看,中能效區(qū)域的能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率受該因素的影響最大；第五,能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率的短期波動還受到誤差值的影響,低能效區(qū)域的誤差修正項(xiàng)系數(shù)最大,能源經(jīng)濟(jì)效率偏離均衡后回到均衡水平的速度是最快的。同時(shí),為考察我國“十二五”節(jié)能目標(biāo)是否能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn),本文首次使用了VAR模型對我國“十二五”期末單位國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值能耗量進(jìn)行預(yù)測。預(yù)測結(jié)果表明,到2015年末,我國可以實(shí)現(xiàn)單位國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值能耗比2010年下降16%的目標(biāo)。
[Abstract]:In the past economic development process, our country has been adopting extensive development mode, the unit output value energy consumption is extremely high, therefore urgently needs to improve our country energy economy efficiency. The purpose of this paper is to consider the spatial characteristics and efficiency differences of each region. The cluster analysis method is introduced to divide the energy economic efficiency regions to characterize the spatial homogeneity of each region, and to analyze the energy economic efficiency in China. In the theoretical analysis, through the analysis of the definition of energy economic efficiency, the main factors affecting energy economic efficiency include industrial structure, industrial structure, technological progress. Energy consumption structure and energy price. In the aspect of empirical analysis, this paper regards energy economic efficiency as the core, first divides 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions, except Tibet) into high energy economic efficiency. Using panel data from 2005 to 2012 to establish a long-term equilibrium model of energy economic efficiency and a short-term error correction model to explore the impact of variable factors on energy economic efficiency in the long and short term. According to the results of the analysis, the corresponding policies are put forward to achieve the purpose of improving energy economic efficiency. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, among the five factors affecting energy economic efficiency, Technological progress only has an impact on the long-term equilibrium of energy economic efficiency, while other factors have an impact on both long-term and short-term effects. Secondly, the industrial structure has an impact on the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuations of energy economic efficiency in the three regions. Energy efficiency in energy-efficient regions is most affected by this factor; third, industrial structure and energy consumption structure have the greatest impact on inefficient regions in the long and short term: 4th, Energy prices only have a volatile impact on energy efficiency in energy-efficient regions in the short term, and in the long run, energy economic efficiency in medium-energy efficiency areas is the most affected by this factor; 5th, The short-term fluctuation of energy economic efficiency is also affected by the error value. The error correction coefficient is the largest in the low energy efficiency area, and the speed of energy economic efficiency returning to the equilibrium level after deviating from the equilibrium is the fastest. At the same time, In order to investigate whether the energy saving target of the 12th Five-Year Plan can be achieved, this paper first uses VAR model to forecast the energy consumption per unit GDP at the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan. The forecast results show that, by end of 2015, China can achieve the goal of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 16% compared with 2010.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.2

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本文編號：1593946