本文選題：CPI　切入點(diǎn)：PPI　出處：《價(jià)格理論與實(shí)踐》2015年11期 　論文類(lèi)型：期刊論文

【摘要】：本文通過(guò)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和理論分析發(fā)現(xiàn),近年來(lái)PPI與CPI走勢(shì)不斷分化,同時(shí)由于指數(shù)構(gòu)成差異及傳遞障礙,PPI與CPI相互間影響程度很小,因果檢驗(yàn)表明PPI和CPI互為因果關(guān)系,脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和預(yù)測(cè)誤差方差分解發(fā)現(xiàn),PPI只解釋CPI變動(dòng)的11.04%,CPI能解釋自身變動(dòng)的88.96%;CPI可解釋PPI變動(dòng)的28.66%,PPI能解釋自身變動(dòng)的71.34%,它們不是完全同步變動(dòng)的,政策制定中不能把PPI當(dāng)作CPI變化的先行指標(biāo)。宏觀政策層面,當(dāng)前PPI下行,CPI不降,給宏觀調(diào)控帶來(lái)了困難,要注意結(jié)構(gòu)性減稅并注重刺激消費(fèi),防止物價(jià)進(jìn)一步下探引起通縮的可能性。
[Abstract]:Through statistical data and theoretical analysis, it is found that the trend of PPI and CPI has been continuously divided in recent years, at the same time, because of the difference of index composition and the degree of influence between CPI and CPI, the causality test shows that PPI and CPI are causality with each other. Impulse response function and variance decomposition of prediction error found that PPI can explain only 11.04 CPI changes, 88.96% of PPI can explain PPI changes, and PPI can explain 71.34% of PPI changes, but they are not completely synchronous. PPI should not be regarded as a leading indicator of CPI change in policy making. At the macro policy level, the current downward trend of PPI has brought difficulties to macro-control, so we should pay attention to structural tax cuts and stimulate consumption. Prevent prices from further exploring the possibility of causing deflation.
【作者單位】： 江西師范大學(xué)科技學(xué)院;懷化學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)系;
【基金】：國(guó)家社科基金青年項(xiàng)目“非線性時(shí)間序列協(xié)整理論的非參數(shù)方法及其應(yīng)用研究”(11CTJ003)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F424;F726
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本文編號(hào)：1577169