本文關(guān)鍵詞： 系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué) 財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警 汽車制造業(yè)　出處：《蘭州交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化進(jìn)程的深入，企業(yè)經(jīng)營的不確定性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)一步加大，企業(yè)外部的宏觀環(huán)境、行業(yè)環(huán)境到企業(yè)內(nèi)部的公司治理，都會(huì)對(duì)企業(yè)的生存發(fā)展產(chǎn)生牽一發(fā)而動(dòng)全身的效果。如何準(zhǔn)確的及時(shí)定位企業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源，實(shí)現(xiàn)快速有效的管理，是避免企業(yè)陷入財(cái)務(wù)困境,提高企業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,占有先機(jī)的根本途徑。 首先，本文通過對(duì)國內(nèi)外財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警理論和預(yù)警方法總結(jié)性的介紹，特別是系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)自身的特點(diǎn)及其在預(yù)警研究中的應(yīng)用，說明該方法在分析我國汽車制造業(yè)預(yù)警研究中的合理性和適用性。 其次，本文以系統(tǒng)論和戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理為理論基礎(chǔ)，系統(tǒng)論的引入確立了從企業(yè)外部環(huán)境到企業(yè)內(nèi)部控制的預(yù)警研究思路，在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的理論基礎(chǔ)上提出了企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制的測(cè)度指標(biāo)體系。 然后，通過分析我國汽車制造業(yè)目前發(fā)展的國際國內(nèi)環(huán)境，從橫向比較的角度找到汽車制造業(yè)發(fā)展的特點(diǎn)及劣勢(shì)。從系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的理論出發(fā)，，按照系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)建模步驟依次明確建模目的和系統(tǒng)邊界,通過系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)分析建立因果關(guān)系圖、流圖和變量方程。 最后，以上海汽車集團(tuán)股份有限公司為例，收集并理財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，利用Versim軟件仿真模擬系統(tǒng)6至10年的數(shù)據(jù)和動(dòng)態(tài)變化，通過趨勢(shì)分析，找出企業(yè)發(fā)展的態(tài)勢(shì)和潛在的問題，并對(duì)影響系統(tǒng)的非財(cái)務(wù)因素和關(guān)鍵因素進(jìn)行敏感性分析，說明模型預(yù)測(cè)的可靠性和適用性，結(jié)合企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)效率指標(biāo)分析和內(nèi)部控制效果分析為該上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警決策提供合理的參考。 通過以上研究過程，本文建立了企業(yè)內(nèi)外部環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的測(cè)度指標(biāo)體系，構(gòu)建了系統(tǒng)考察企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型。這將有利于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)在汽車制造業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警領(lǐng)域的應(yīng)用，對(duì)全方位的考慮企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，有效地實(shí)現(xiàn)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警和控制具有一定的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the process of market economy integration, the uncertainty risk of enterprise management is further increased. The external macro environment, industry environment and internal corporate governance of the enterprise, How to accurately and timely locate the risk source of the enterprise and realize the rapid and effective management is to avoid the enterprise from falling into financial distress and to improve the competitiveness of the enterprise. The fundamental way to take advantage of the opportunity. First of all, this paper introduces the theory and methods of financial early warning at home and abroad, especially the characteristics of system dynamics and its application in early warning research. The rationality and applicability of this method in the early warning research of automobile manufacturing industry in China are explained. Secondly, based on the theory of system theory and strategic risk management, the introduction of system theory establishes the idea of early-warning research from the external environment to the internal control of enterprises. Based on the theory of risk management, the measurement index system of enterprise strategic risk control is put forward. Then, by analyzing the international and domestic environment of the current development of China's automobile manufacturing industry, we find out the characteristics and disadvantages of the development of the automobile manufacturing industry from the perspective of horizontal comparison, and proceed from the theory of system dynamics. According to the modeling steps of system dynamics, the purpose of modeling and the boundary of the system are defined in turn, and the causality diagram, flow diagram and variable equation are established through system structure analysis. Finally, take Shanghai Automotive Group Co., Ltd as an example, collect and manage the relevant data of financial early warning system, use Versim software to simulate the data and dynamic changes of the system for 6 to 10 years, and analyze the trend through the trend analysis. To find out the situation and potential problems of enterprise development, and to analyze the sensitivity of non-financial factors and key factors that affect the system, and to explain the reliability and applicability of the model prediction. Combined with the analysis of financial efficiency index and internal control effect, it provides a reasonable reference for the financial early warning decision of the listed company. Through the above research process, this paper establishes the internal and external environmental risk measurement index system. The financial early-warning model of enterprise financial risk is constructed, which will be beneficial to the application of system dynamics in the field of financial early warning of automobile manufacturing industry, and consider the financial risk of enterprise in all directions. It is of theoretical and practical significance to realize the early warning and control of enterprise financial crisis effectively.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F406.7;F426.471

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