發(fā)布時間：2018-02-26 18:47

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 能源安全 能源消費結(jié)構(gòu) 關(guān)聯(lián)機制　出處：《中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：能源是人類生存、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、社會進步和現(xiàn)代文明不可缺少的重要基礎(chǔ)資源，是關(guān)系國家經(jīng)濟命脈和國防安全的重要戰(zhàn)略物資，是社會經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要基礎(chǔ)，在現(xiàn)代化建設(shè)中具有舉足輕重的地位。我國己經(jīng)進入工業(yè)化發(fā)展階段，經(jīng)濟和社會等領(lǐng)域?qū)l(fā)生許多革命性的變化，能源領(lǐng)域也將面臨著諸多挑戰(zhàn)，能源安全的維護，能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化，成為兩個亟待解決的課題。科學(xué)地對我國能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)的變化和能源安全的提升進行戰(zhàn)略分析和預(yù)測，對于制定正確的能源發(fā)展規(guī)劃，保障我國宏偉戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)的實現(xiàn)，構(gòu)建節(jié)約型社會和和諧社會都具有重要的意義。 本文在對能源安全和能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)各自的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進行分析的基礎(chǔ)上，應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)理論和方法，結(jié)合經(jīng)濟學(xué)相關(guān)原理，對我國能源安全和能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)聯(lián)機制進行了模擬和分析。具體內(nèi)容如下：首先對二者的內(nèi)部影響因素分析。在前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上，篩選出能源安全與能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)各自的影響因素，并在量化的基礎(chǔ)上應(yīng)用灰色理論計算影響因素對兩個主體的關(guān)聯(lián)度大小，得出主要影響因素。接下來，分析二者的外部數(shù)量關(guān)系。將協(xié)整理論和共生理論應(yīng)用到能源安全與能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)的內(nèi)生關(guān)聯(lián)模型中，先對宏觀數(shù)據(jù)上二者的協(xié)整關(guān)系進行確認(rèn)，再使用共生理論對它們的互利共生關(guān)系進行推導(dǎo)。最后基于上述內(nèi)外部的研究，應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)對它們之間的關(guān)聯(lián)機制進行模擬仿真，設(shè)置情景模擬能源安全與能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)之間的變化關(guān)系，這是與前面的研究對于此課題用回歸分析等方法所不同的地方。 結(jié)果表明：能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)的改善能夠?qū)δ茉聪M量產(chǎn)生決定性的影響，從而對能源安全的提升產(chǎn)生顯著影響。不同的能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)下能源缺口的預(yù)測值發(fā)生顯著的改變。自然趨勢發(fā)展情況下，煤炭比例仍占較高份額，天然氣與石油緩慢增長，此時能源缺口值在2010-2045年間保持較高速增長，于2045年達到一個峰值后逐漸趨于平穩(wěn)，不再大幅增長；煤炭比例相對較低情況下，能源缺口在2010-2050年間處于一個緩慢減小的趨勢。兩種能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)帶給能源安全的改變是截然不同的。而通過能源供給角度降低能源缺口，從而提高能源安全度，也能夠通過影響能源強度對各種能源的消費量產(chǎn)生作用，以達到改善能源結(jié)構(gòu)的結(jié)果。針對這一結(jié)論，，本文針對保障我國能源安全和優(yōu)化能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)提出了一系列政策建議，以期能達到改善我國的能源現(xiàn)狀的目的。
[Abstract]:Energy is an indispensable basic resource for human survival, economic development, social progress and modern civilization, an important strategic material related to the national economic lifeline and national defense security, and an important foundation for the sustainable development of social economy. China has entered the stage of industrialization and development, many revolutionary changes will take place in the fields of economy and society, and the field of energy will also face many challenges. The optimization of energy consumption structure has become two urgent issues to be solved. To scientifically analyze and predict the change of energy consumption structure and the promotion of energy security in China, we should make a correct energy development plan. It is of great significance to guarantee the realization of the grand strategic goal of our country and to build a conservation-oriented society and a harmonious society. Based on the analysis of the current situation of energy security and energy consumption structure, this paper applies the theory and method of system dynamics, and combines the relevant principles of economics. The related mechanism of energy security and energy consumption structure in China is simulated and analyzed. The specific contents are as follows: firstly, the internal influencing factors of the two are analyzed. The influence factors of energy security and energy consumption structure are screened out, and the correlation degree of the influencing factors to the two main bodies is calculated on the basis of the grey theory on the basis of quantification, and the main influencing factors are obtained. The cointegration theory and symbiosis theory are applied to the endogenous correlation model between energy security and energy consumption structure. Then the symbiosis theory is used to deduce their mutual-benefit relationship. Finally, based on the above internal and external research, the correlation mechanism between them is simulated and simulated by system dynamics. Setting up scenarios to simulate the relationship between energy security and energy consumption structure is different from the previous research using regression analysis and other methods. The results show that the improvement of energy consumption structure can have a decisive effect on energy consumption. This has a significant impact on the improvement of energy security. The predicted value of the energy gap in different energy consumption structures has changed significantly. In the case of natural trends, coal still accounts for a relatively high share, and natural gas and oil are growing slowly. At this point, the gap value of energy kept growing at a high speed between 2010 and 2045, then reached a peak in 2045, and gradually leveled off and did not increase substantially; in the case of relatively low coal ratio, The energy gap is in a slow downward trend between 2010 and 2050. The changes in energy security brought about by the two energy consumption structures are very different. Reducing the energy gap through the angle of energy supply improves energy security. In order to improve the energy structure, this paper puts forward a series of policy suggestions to ensure the energy security and optimize the energy consumption structure. In order to achieve the purpose of improving the energy situation of our country.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.2

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