本文關(guān)鍵詞： 抽水蓄能電站 經(jīng)濟效益 層次分析法 模糊綜合評價　出處：《華北電力大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：抽水蓄能電站以其獨特的結(jié)構(gòu)和運行方式,對保證電網(wǎng)安全穩(wěn)定運行有著不可替代的作用。近年來我國已有若干抽水蓄能電站投入運行,并新建大量抽水蓄能電站,但抽水蓄能電站仍然存在投資主體單一、電價機制不健全等問題,并且其獨特功能和巨大的經(jīng)濟效益也并未得到充分認識,這極不利于抽水蓄能電站的建設(shè)和運行管理。要解決這些問題,需要從根本上入手,即從根本上認識抽水蓄能電站的功能,全面認識抽水蓄能電站在電網(wǎng)中的功能與效益。 本文首先分析了抽水蓄能電站在電網(wǎng)中的作用,建立了“功能效益”的概念。然后在電站的國民經(jīng)濟評價、財務(wù)效益分析和功能效益三方面選取了若干指標,構(gòu)成抽水蓄能電站經(jīng)濟效益評價的指標體系。 為了獲得較好的綜合評價效果,研究分析了常用的綜合評價方法,分析了各種方法的特點和適用場合,最終選擇模糊綜合評價法用于構(gòu)建整體評價模型,并用層次分析法確定指標體系的權(quán)重。經(jīng)典層次分析法按九標度原則建立判斷矩陣,當同層次因素較多時,決策者將難以保證判斷準則的一致性,從而導致判斷矩陣不可靠。本文應(yīng)用改進型層次分析法,使用三標度原則,使決策者易于判斷。并給出了改進型層次分析法完整的操作步驟,方法能滿足一致性要求。指標體系的各指標有著不同的性質(zhì)、量綱、取值范圍,必須對評價指標進行無量綱化處理,將其轉(zhuǎn)化到同一個評價尺度下。在模糊綜合評價法的框架下,針對定量指標和定性指標分別給出了隸屬度計算方法,尤其是詳細給出了正向定量指標、負向定量指標和中間型定量指標的隸屬度函數(shù)分布圖。 根據(jù)以上研究,根據(jù)模糊綜合評價法的基本原理建立一套完整的經(jīng)濟效益綜合評價模型,并應(yīng)用于江西洪屏抽水蓄能電站的經(jīng)濟效益分析。還將該評價模型拓展應(yīng)用于多個抽水蓄能電站經(jīng)濟效益的橫向?qū)Ρ妊芯?這將為擇優(yōu)抽水蓄能電站予以支持時提供決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With its unique structure and operation mode, pumped storage power station plays an irreplaceable role in ensuring the safe and stable operation of power grid. In recent years, a number of pumped storage power stations have been put into operation in China, and a large number of new pumped storage power stations have been built. However, the Pumped-storage Power Station still has some problems, such as single investment subject, imperfect electricity price mechanism, and its unique function and enormous economic benefits are not fully recognized. This is extremely disadvantageous to the construction and operation management of pumped storage power station. In order to solve these problems, we need to fundamentally understand the function of pumped storage power station, and fully understand the function and benefit of pumped storage power station in power network. In this paper, the function of pumped-storage power station in power network is analyzed, and the concept of "functional benefit" is established. Then, some indexes are selected in the aspects of national economic evaluation, financial benefit analysis and functional benefit of the power station. The index system of economic benefit evaluation of pumped storage power station is constituted. In order to obtain better comprehensive evaluation effect, this paper studies and analyzes the common comprehensive evaluation methods, analyzes the characteristics and applicable situations of various methods, and finally selects the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to construct the overall evaluation model. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to determine the weight of the index system. The classical AHP establishes the judgment matrix according to the nine-scale principle. When there are many factors at the same level, the decision-makers will find it difficult to ensure the consistency of the judgment criteria. In this paper, the improved Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the principle of three scales are used to make the decision makers easy to judge, and the complete operation steps of the improved AHP are given. The method can meet the requirements of consistency. Each index of the index system has different properties, dimensionality and value range, so the evaluation index must be dimensionless. Under the framework of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the calculation methods of membership degree for quantitative index and qualitative index are given respectively, especially the positive quantitative index is given in detail. The distribution of membership function of negative quantitative index and intermediate quantitative index. According to the above research, according to the basic principle of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, a set of comprehensive evaluation model of economic benefit is established. It is also applied to the economic benefit analysis of Hongping pumped Storage Power Station in Jiangxi Province. The evaluation model is also extended to the horizontal comparative study of the economic benefits of several pumped storage power stations, which will provide a decision basis for the selection of optimal pumped-storage power stations to be supported.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.91;F426.61

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