本文關(guān)鍵詞： 能源消費 能源效率 能源供需 低碳 環(huán)境污染 戰(zhàn)略　出處：《南京信息工程大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著社會生產(chǎn)力的發(fā)展,人類對能源的需求量日益增大。但是,當(dāng)今世界所使用的能源,絕大多數(shù)仍來自于地球,人類對能源的開采和利用,各種能源資源日漸枯竭,能否滿足未來世界不斷增加的能源需求,是人類共同面臨的問題。環(huán)境問題是關(guān)系到人類生存和發(fā)展的又一重大問題。當(dāng)今世界環(huán)境污染十分嚴(yán)重,且有進(jìn)一步惡化的趨勢。能源的生產(chǎn)和消費過程中產(chǎn)生的污染,是引起環(huán)境問題最主要的因素�；剂系拇罅渴褂�,導(dǎo)致有毒有害氣體和煙塵的大量排放而污染環(huán)境,同時也導(dǎo)致了大量二氧化碳等溫室氣體的排放。因此,實施以低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)為核心的節(jié)能減排、清潔生產(chǎn)、提高能源利用率是我國未來能源發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的必由之路。 本文開始先對能源、環(huán)境和低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的概念進(jìn)行界定并介紹了相關(guān)研究的前沿動態(tài),應(yīng)用歷史數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計方法探討了我國能源生產(chǎn)消費、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和環(huán)境保護(hù)的相互關(guān)系,通過超效率DEA模型分析我國能源消費效率、能源消費環(huán)境效率以及能源消費經(jīng)濟(jì)效率,并在此基礎(chǔ)上對我國上述效率曲線進(jìn)行敏感性分析；運(yùn)用灰色預(yù)測方法對我國能源消費進(jìn)行預(yù)測,并討論我國能源生產(chǎn)消費供需問題；然后提出我國能源發(fā)展存在結(jié)構(gòu)失衡、消費成本較高、效率低下、供需矛盾等四大問題；最后針對上述問題提出以低碳為核心的能源發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,結(jié)合我國最新環(huán)保法從環(huán)境政策、環(huán)境技術(shù)和環(huán)境管理層面加以分析探討。研究結(jié)論如下：(1)煤炭和石油的成為我國能源消耗的兩大主要品種,但我國近年來已開始注重對天然氣、水電、核電、風(fēng)電等清潔能源的利用；(2)我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)正處于變動之中,但我國在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整上力度并不是很大,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)比重大,耗能高,仍是我國能源管理重點,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動對降低我國能源消耗并未產(chǎn)生實質(zhì)性影響；(3)我國能源消費環(huán)境效率未引起足夠重視,單位產(chǎn)品能耗與國際先進(jìn)水平差距逐漸減小,但形勢依然嚴(yán)峻,能源利用效率不高；(4)我國當(dāng)前能源生產(chǎn)消費供需失衡,能源安全問題將會凸顯。 論文主要存在以下創(chuàng)新之處：以我國能源生產(chǎn)消費和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式為主題,緊緊圍繞能源與經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源與環(huán)境、環(huán)境與經(jīng)濟(jì)三個層面進(jìn)行定性討論與數(shù)量分析,試圖尋找未來我國能源發(fā)展的有效路徑。
[Abstract]:With the development of social productivity, the demand for energy is increasing. However, most of the energy used in the world still comes from the earth. Whether or not we can meet the increasing energy demand of the world in the future is a common problem facing mankind. The environmental problem is another important problem related to the survival and development of mankind. The environmental pollution in the world today is very serious. Pollution from the production and consumption of energy is the most important factor causing environmental problems. The extensive use of fossil fuels results in a large discharge of toxic and harmful gases and soot and pollutes the environment, At the same time, it also leads to a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide. Therefore, the implementation of low carbon economy as the core of energy saving and emission reduction, clean production, improving energy utilization is the only way to the future energy development strategy of our country. In this paper, the concepts of energy, environment and low-carbon economy are defined, and the frontier trends of related research are introduced. The relationship among energy production, consumption, economic development and environmental protection in China is discussed by means of historical data statistics. The energy consumption efficiency, energy consumption environment efficiency and energy consumption economic efficiency are analyzed by super-efficiency DEA model, and the sensitivity of these efficiency curves is analyzed. This paper uses grey forecast method to forecast energy consumption in China, and discusses the supply and demand of energy production and consumption in China, and then points out that there are four major problems in energy development in China, such as structural imbalance, high consumption cost, low efficiency and contradiction between supply and demand. Finally, aiming at the above problems, the paper puts forward the energy development strategy with low-carbon as the core, and combines the latest environmental protection law of our country from the environmental policy. Environmental technology and environmental management are analyzed and discussed. The conclusions are as follows: 1) Coal and petroleum have become the two major types of energy consumption in China, but in recent years China has begun to focus on natural gas, hydropower, and nuclear power. The utilization of clean energy, such as wind power, is in the process of being changed. However, the adjustment of industrial structure in our country is not very strong. The secondary industry has a large proportion and high energy consumption, which is still the key point of energy management in our country. The change of industrial structure has not had a substantial impact on the reduction of energy consumption in China. (3) the environmental efficiency of energy consumption in China has not attracted enough attention, and the gap between energy consumption per unit product and the international advanced level has gradually decreased, but the situation is still grim. Energy use efficiency is not high (4) China's current energy production and consumption supply and demand imbalance, energy security issues will be highlighted. The main innovations of this paper are as follows: the qualitative discussion and quantitative analysis of energy and economy, energy and environment, environment and economy are the main themes of energy production, consumption and economic development of our country, and focus on three aspects: energy and economy, energy and environment, environment and economy. This paper tries to find the effective path of energy development in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京信息工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.2;X24

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本文編號：1514532