本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)有色金屬消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系研究　出處：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)工業(yè)化進(jìn)程的加快，金屬消費(fèi)尤其是作為支撐國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的有色金屬消費(fèi)對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的作用越來(lái)越明顯，作為有色金屬消費(fèi)第一大國(guó)，我國(guó)的有色金屬還存在著供需不平衡的問(wèn)題，當(dāng)前我國(guó)正處于工業(yè)化中期階段，，有效把握有色金屬消費(fèi)規(guī)律，掌握有色金屬消費(fèi)需求，有利于我國(guó)調(diào)整好有色金屬供需關(guān)系，科學(xué)的制定有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)政策，加快工業(yè)化過(guò)程的實(shí)現(xiàn)。 本文著重選取了銅鋁鋅作為對(duì)有色金屬的研究對(duì)象，通過(guò)對(duì)它們消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù)的整理分析，找出了我國(guó)有色金屬的消費(fèi)規(guī)律以及有色金屬消費(fèi)與我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系。文章在對(duì)前人研究文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上，首先從理論上對(duì)我國(guó)有色金屬消費(fèi)規(guī)律做了相關(guān)的鑒定，選用美日發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的工業(yè)化期間的有色金屬消費(fèi)規(guī)律作為參考與借鑒，并分析了我國(guó)的有色金屬消費(fèi)規(guī)律。其次，研究了我國(guó)當(dāng)前的有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)消費(fèi)狀況，包括有色金屬應(yīng)用現(xiàn)狀，消費(fèi)現(xiàn)狀，有色金屬凈出口現(xiàn)狀以及有色金屬消費(fèi)的影響因素。接著，運(yùn)用excel與eviews從實(shí)證角度對(duì)我國(guó)有色金屬消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了分析，選取的指標(biāo)包括有色金屬消費(fèi)率、有色金屬經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)率、以及有色金屬經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率貢獻(xiàn)率、有色金屬消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度以及有色金屬消費(fèi)彈性。在此基礎(chǔ)上，選取美德日韓意五國(guó)先期工業(yè)化國(guó)家作為研究樣本，預(yù)測(cè)了我國(guó)未來(lái)30年工業(yè)化進(jìn)程中的有色金屬消費(fèi)。最后，為我國(guó)當(dāng)前的有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展提出了相關(guān)政策建議。 本文研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，有色金屬的消費(fèi)并不是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的原因，但是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是驅(qū)動(dòng)有色金屬消費(fèi)的原因，這說(shuō)明，消費(fèi)并不一定能帶來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，適度的合理的消費(fèi)才能帶來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。本文還發(fā)現(xiàn)，我國(guó)的有色金屬增長(zhǎng)平緩點(diǎn)將在2036年左右出現(xiàn)，這將意味著我國(guó)的工業(yè)化進(jìn)程能夠在20年后完成。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of China's industrialization, especially non-ferrous metal consumption as consumer support for the national economy more and more significant role in economic development, as the non-ferrous metal consumption superpower, China Nonferrous Metals there is imbalance between supply and demand, at present our country is in the middle stage of industrialization, effectively grasp the consumer behavior of colored master metal, non-ferrous metal consumption demand, is conducive to China's adjustment of nonferrous metal supply and demand relations, the establishment of scientific policy of non-ferrous metal industry, speeding up the industrialization process.
This paper selects the copper aluminum and zinc as the research object of non-ferrous metals, through analysis of their consumption data and economic growth data, find out the relationship between consumption of China's non-ferrous metals and non-ferrous metal consumption and economic development in China. Based on the previous research literature, first of all to do the relevant the identification from the theory of law of China's non-ferrous metal consumption, non-ferrous metal consumption of selected developed countries during industrialization as reference, and analyzes the law of China's non-ferrous metal consumption. Secondly, study the current consumption situation of nonferrous metal industry, including the current situation of nonferrous metal consumption, application status, factors nonferrous metal net export status and influence of non-ferrous metal consumption. Then, using the excel and Eviews of non-ferrous metal consumption and economic growth in China from the perspective of empirical The relationship was analyzed, the selected indicators including non-ferrous metals non-ferrous metal consumption rate, the contribution rate of economic growth, economic growth rate and non-ferrous metal contribution rate, non-ferrous metal consumption intensity and non-ferrous metal consumption elasticity. On this basis, select the virtues of Italy advanced industrialized countries Japan and South Korea as the research sample, the prediction of non-ferrous metals consumption in the next 30 years in the process of industrialization of our country. Finally, we put forward some policy recommendations for China's current non-ferrous metal industry development.
This study found that the reason of non-ferrous metal consumption is not economic growth, but economic growth is driven, non-ferrous metal consumption which shows that consumption does not necessarily bring economic growth, economic growth can bring moderate and reasonable consumption. This paper also found that China's nonferrous metals will slow growth appear in around 2036. This means that China's industrialization process can be completed in 20 years.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.32;F124

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