發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-10 05:26

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：光伏發(fā)電自消費(fèi)商業(yè)模式及其激勵(lì)政策研究　出處：《中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 光伏發(fā)電 商業(yè)模式 激勵(lì)政策 數(shù)值仿真

【摘要】：隨著不可再生能源的日趨枯竭，能源供應(yīng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展以及由此引發(fā)的國(guó)家能源安全問(wèn)題已得到各國(guó)高度關(guān)注。太陽(yáng)能光伏發(fā)電行業(yè)作為可再生能源開(kāi)發(fā)利用行業(yè)中的佼佼者，近年來(lái)在美國(guó)、德國(guó)、日本等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家光伏發(fā)電市場(chǎng)的推動(dòng)下得到飛速發(fā)展。我國(guó)光伏發(fā)電市場(chǎng)開(kāi)始于20世紀(jì)70年代，經(jīng)過(guò)40余年的發(fā)展我國(guó)光伏發(fā)電產(chǎn)業(yè)初具規(guī)模，2013年新增裝機(jī)容量達(dá)10GW，累計(jì)裝機(jī)容量突破18GW。這主要得益于政府的一系列激勵(lì)政策，同時(shí)也離不開(kāi)光伏發(fā)電企業(yè)從未停歇的商業(yè)模式探索。合理的商業(yè)模式是我國(guó)光伏發(fā)電應(yīng)用市場(chǎng)大規(guī)模發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵。 首先，本文對(duì)商業(yè)模式和光伏發(fā)電激勵(lì)政策的相關(guān)研究進(jìn)行總結(jié)與分析，為下文研究光伏發(fā)電的商業(yè)模式奠定了理論基礎(chǔ)。 其次，本文回顧了世界光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展歷程、發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，并分析了我國(guó)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀、前景與發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。研究結(jié)果表明當(dāng)前我國(guó)光伏發(fā)電市場(chǎng)發(fā)展迅速，但同時(shí)存在商業(yè)模式模糊、補(bǔ)貼機(jī)制不明確、并網(wǎng)難等問(wèn)題。 再次，本文研究了當(dāng)前國(guó)際上流行的光伏發(fā)電的兩種商業(yè)模式——上網(wǎng)電價(jià)模式和自消費(fèi)模式，并分別對(duì)其進(jìn)行了簡(jiǎn)單的分析。光伏發(fā)電的自消費(fèi)商業(yè)模式簡(jiǎn)單的說(shuō)就是自建（發(fā)）自用，余電上網(wǎng)。從產(chǎn)生、特點(diǎn)、類(lèi)型到相關(guān)激勵(lì)政策，本文重點(diǎn)研究了自消費(fèi)商業(yè)模式。特別是對(duì)自消費(fèi)商業(yè)模式的應(yīng)用研究，為我國(guó)光伏發(fā)電采用自消費(fèi)商業(yè)模式提供了借鑒。研究結(jié)果顯示，自消費(fèi)商業(yè)模式是現(xiàn)在光伏市場(chǎng)上普遍采用的模式，也是未來(lái)光伏發(fā)電商業(yè)模式的主要方向。 接著，在自消費(fèi)商業(yè)模式研究的基礎(chǔ)，，建立自消費(fèi)光伏發(fā)電項(xiàng)目的收益決策模型，考察激勵(lì)政策的不同因素對(duì)光伏發(fā)電投資者的影響程度。根據(jù)數(shù)值仿真分析結(jié)果得出，上網(wǎng)電價(jià)補(bǔ)貼水平及其有效期、建設(shè)成本補(bǔ)貼水平、上網(wǎng)電價(jià)和成本的波動(dòng)情況等因素都影響著投資者的投資決策。補(bǔ)貼有效期的影響程度要大于上網(wǎng)電價(jià)補(bǔ)貼水平的影響程度，而上網(wǎng)電價(jià)波動(dòng)率和投資成本波動(dòng)率的影響又大于補(bǔ)貼有效期的影響。由于本文模型的不足，不能夠區(qū)分上網(wǎng)電價(jià)波動(dòng)率和投資成本波動(dòng)率的影響程度。 最后，根據(jù)光伏發(fā)電商業(yè)模式研究和數(shù)值仿真結(jié)果，從企業(yè)層面和政府層面提出光伏發(fā)電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的建議。企業(yè)要選擇合理的商業(yè)模式，政府也要為光伏發(fā)電行業(yè)的發(fā)展制定相應(yīng)的激勵(lì)政策，同時(shí)加強(qiáng)政府對(duì)市場(chǎng)的監(jiān)管，以促進(jìn)光伏發(fā)電應(yīng)用市場(chǎng)的迅速擴(kuò)大。
[Abstract]:With the depletion of non-renewable energy. The sustainable development of energy supply and the national energy security problems caused by it have been highly concerned by many countries. As a leader in renewable energy development and utilization industry, solar photovoltaic power generation industry has been in the United States in recent years. Developed countries such as Germany, Japan and other developed countries have been promoted by the rapid development of photovoltaic power market. China's photovoltaic power market began in 1970s, after more than 40 years of development of photovoltaic power generation industry in China has begun to take shape. In 2013, the new installed capacity reached 10GW, and the cumulative installed capacity exceeded 18GW. this is mainly due to a series of incentive policies of the government. At the same time, it is also inseparable from the exploration of the business model of photovoltaic power generation enterprises, which is the key to the large-scale development of photovoltaic power application market in China. First of all, this paper summarizes and analyzes the relevant research on the business model and photovoltaic incentive policy, which lays a theoretical foundation for the following research on the photovoltaic business model. Secondly, this paper reviews the development of photovoltaic industry in the world, the development of the status quo, and analyzes the current situation of the development of photovoltaic industry in China. The research results show that the photovoltaic power generation market in China is developing rapidly, but there are some problems such as vague business model, unclear subsidy mechanism and difficulty in connecting to the grid. Thirdly, this paper studies the current international popular photovoltaic generation of two business models-Internet pricing mode and self-consumption mode. And it is analyzed separately. The self-consumption business model of photovoltaic power generation is simply self-building (generating) self-use, surplus electricity online. From the generation, characteristics, types to the relevant incentive policies. This paper focuses on the study of self-consumption business model, especially the application of self-consumption business model, which provides a reference for photovoltaic power generation to adopt self-consumption business model. The results show that. Self-consumption business model is widely used in the current photovoltaic market, and is also the main direction of the future photovoltaic business model. Then, based on the research of self-consumption business model, the income decision-making model of self-consumption photovoltaic power generation project is established. According to the results of numerical simulation, it is concluded that the price subsidy level and its validity period, construction cost subsidy level. The fluctuation of electricity price and cost influence the investor's investment decision. The effect of subsidy period is greater than that of the price subsidy level. However, the influence of price volatility and investment cost volatility is greater than that of the validity period of subsidies. Because of the shortage of the model in this paper, it is impossible to distinguish the influence degree between the volatility of electricity price and the volatility of investment cost. Finally, according to the research of photovoltaic power generation business model and numerical simulation results, from the enterprise level and the government level to propose the development of photovoltaic power generation industry, enterprises should choose a reasonable business model. The government should also make corresponding incentive policies for the development of photovoltaic power generation industry and strengthen government supervision of the market in order to promote the rapid expansion of photovoltaic power application market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.61;F721

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