本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)應(yīng)對(duì)美國反傾銷預(yù)警系統(tǒng)研究　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：本文以中國和美國光伏產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易中存在的反傾銷問題作為出發(fā)點(diǎn)，分析美國對(duì)中國出口光伏產(chǎn)品反傾銷調(diào)查及征收高額反傾銷稅的現(xiàn)狀，找出美國對(duì)中國光伏產(chǎn)品反傾銷指控的主要原因，在此基礎(chǔ)上運(yùn)用模糊決策樹的方法來構(gòu)建反傾銷預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，從而盡最大可能為政府及有光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)相關(guān)部門研究和制定相應(yīng)的反傾銷管理政策和措施提供理論依據(jù)，控制和減少美國對(duì)中國出口光伏產(chǎn)品反傾銷指控的案件數(shù)量，使得被指控光伏產(chǎn)品企業(yè)能夠及早制定出積極的應(yīng)對(duì)措施，避免或減少反傾銷對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)和相關(guān)行業(yè)造成的損失，，增加光伏企業(yè)的國際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。 本文在借鑒國內(nèi)外已有的研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，根據(jù)中國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀以及美國光伏行業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展指標(biāo)，構(gòu)造出中國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)應(yīng)對(duì)美國反傾銷預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，采用應(yīng)用模糊決策樹技術(shù)來預(yù)測(cè)中國光伏產(chǎn)品出口企業(yè)在未來是否依然會(huì)遭到美國反傾銷控訴，并給出與之對(duì)應(yīng)的預(yù)警信號(hào)。首先，本文分析了中美貿(mào)易關(guān)系現(xiàn)狀及其特點(diǎn)，重在指出中美貿(mào)易中存在的反傾銷問題，其特點(diǎn)、原因和發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。其次，比較分析美國對(duì)我國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)反傾銷的現(xiàn)狀以及反傾銷對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)和出口貿(mào)易造成的影響。定性分析美國對(duì)我國反傾銷指控的主要原因并通過問卷調(diào)查收集專家意見，利用專家評(píng)分法，定量分析美國對(duì)我國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)反傾銷指控的主要原因及其重要性。最后，在上述研究基礎(chǔ)上，依據(jù)模糊決策樹預(yù)警系統(tǒng)理論，參照其他經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域有關(guān)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的實(shí)際研究，建立美國對(duì)中國反傾銷的統(tǒng)計(jì)預(yù)警模型和預(yù)測(cè)模型。經(jīng)過實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)，結(jié)果也顯明該預(yù)警系統(tǒng)具有相對(duì)較好的預(yù)測(cè)效果。構(gòu)建西方發(fā)達(dá)國家對(duì)我國出口商品反傾銷預(yù)警系統(tǒng)研究，使得我國應(yīng)付外國對(duì)華反傾銷預(yù)警體系得到進(jìn)一步豐富和完善，同時(shí)，將模糊決策樹這種數(shù)據(jù)挖掘技術(shù)與反傾銷預(yù)警研究相結(jié)合使用也是學(xué)術(shù)上一次新的嘗試。
[Abstract]:Based on the antidumping problems existing in the import and export trade of photovoltaic products between China and the United States, this paper analyzes the current situation of anti-dumping investigations and high anti-dumping duties imposed by the United States on China's exports of photovoltaic products. To find out the main reasons of antidumping charges against Chinese photovoltaic products in the United States, on the basis of this, using the fuzzy decision tree method to build the antidumping early warning system. Thus as far as possible for the government and photovoltaic industry related departments to study and formulate the corresponding anti-dumping management policies and measures to provide a theoretical basis. To control and reduce the number of US anti-dumping cases against China's exports of photovoltaic products, so that the alleged photovoltaic products enterprises can formulate early positive response measures. To avoid or reduce the losses caused by anti-dumping to China's economy and related industries, and to increase the international competitiveness of photovoltaic enterprises. Based on the existing research results at home and abroad, according to the current situation of photovoltaic industry in China and the economic development index of photovoltaic industry in the United States, this paper constructs an antidumping early warning system for China's photovoltaic industry to deal with the United States. Using fuzzy decision tree technology to predict whether Chinese photovoltaic export enterprises will still be sued by the United States anti-dumping in the future, and give the corresponding warning signal. First of all. This paper analyzes the current situation and characteristics of Sino-US trade relations, and points out the antidumping problems existing in Sino-US trade, its characteristics, causes and development trends. A comparative analysis of the current situation of antidumping by the United States against China's photovoltaic industry and the impact of anti-dumping on China's economy and export trade. Qualitative Analysis of the main causes of American Anti-dumping charges against China and the collection of experts through questionnaires. Opinions. Using expert scoring method, quantitative analysis of the main causes and importance of anti-dumping charges against China's photovoltaic industry in the United States. Finally, based on the above research, according to the theory of fuzzy decision tree early warning system. With reference to the actual research on the early warning system in other economic fields, the statistical early warning model and forecasting model of American anti-dumping against China are established. The results also show that the early warning system has a relatively good prediction effect. It makes our country to deal with the foreign anti-dumping early warning system to be further enriched and perfected, at the same time, it is a new academic attempt to combine the data mining technology of fuzzy decision tree with antidumping early warning research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F752.02;F426.6

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