本文關(guān)鍵詞：電力上市公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險評價及預(yù)警研究　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 風(fēng)險評價 風(fēng)險預(yù)警 主成分TOPSIS法 遺傳算法 支持向量機(jī) Java編程

【摘要】：電力工業(yè)是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要基礎(chǔ)能源產(chǎn)業(yè),在國家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略中占有舉足輕重的地位。電力上市公司作為電力工業(yè)中最具活力和發(fā)展?jié)摿Φ钠髽I(yè),其財務(wù)狀況受到投資者、債權(quán)人的廣泛關(guān)注。隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的發(fā)展,我國上市公司擁有優(yōu)越發(fā)展機(jī)遇的同時面臨巨大的挑戰(zhàn),電力上市公司作為上市公司中的一員同樣面臨著激烈的競爭和多元化的風(fēng)險,其中財務(wù)風(fēng)險是企業(yè)發(fā)展過程中面臨的最重要的風(fēng)險之一。近年來,電力上市公司資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率高居不下,償債壓力較大,企業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險較高。因此,評價企業(yè)當(dāng)前財務(wù)風(fēng)險水平并對其進(jìn)行有效預(yù)警對于電力上市公司提升財務(wù)抗風(fēng)險能力具有重大意義。 本文首先梳理財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警的相關(guān)概念,介紹所使用模型和方法的基本理論。其次,本文對電力行業(yè)的特征及其面臨的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行分析。在借鑒前人的研究成果并結(jié)合電力上市公司的實際,從盈利能力、償債能力、營運能力、成長能力、現(xiàn)金流量等五個方面構(gòu)建了電力上市公司風(fēng)險評價的指標(biāo)體系�？紤]到評價指標(biāo)可能存在共線性的問題,本文采用主成分TOPSIS法進(jìn)行綜合評價分析,即對評價指標(biāo)進(jìn)行主成分選取,利用TOPSIS法對上市公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險進(jìn)行綜合評價并劃分等級,隨后使用遺傳算法優(yōu)化的支持向量機(jī)(GA-SVM)模型并借助Java編程實現(xiàn)了電力上市公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警分析。實證結(jié)果表明GA-SVM預(yù)警模型有較好的判別精度。最后,根據(jù)前文的理論分析以及實證研究結(jié)果,提出了針對電力上市公司的財務(wù)風(fēng)險控制策略。
[Abstract]:Electric power industry is an important basic energy industry of national economy, which plays an important role in the national economic development strategy. The listed power companies are the most dynamic and potential enterprises in the power industry. With the development of global economic integration, the listed companies of our country have the superior development opportunity and face the huge challenge at the same time. As a member of listed companies, electric power listed companies also face fierce competition and diversified risks, among which financial risk is one of the most important risks in the process of enterprise development. Power listed companies have a high ratio of assets and liabilities, higher debt service pressure and higher financial risk. It is of great significance to evaluate the current financial risk level of enterprises and carry out effective early warning for the power listed companies to enhance the ability of financial risk resistance. This article first combs the financial risk early warning related concept, introduces the basic theory of the model and the method used. Secondly. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the power industry and the risks it faces. In the light of the previous research results and the actual situation of the listed power companies, the paper analyzes the profitability, solvency, operating capacity and growth ability of the listed companies. This paper constructs the index system of power listed companies' risk evaluation from five aspects, such as cash flow. Considering that the evaluation index may have the problem of collinearity, this paper adopts the principal component TOPSIS method to carry on the comprehensive evaluation analysis. That is to say, the main components of the evaluation index are selected, and the financial risk of listed companies is comprehensively evaluated and classified by using TOPSIS method. Subsequently, the genetic algorithm is used to optimize the support vector machine (GA-SVM). The model also realizes the financial risk early warning analysis of listed power companies with Java programming. The empirical results show that the GA-SVM early warning model has good discriminant accuracy. Finally. Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical results, the paper puts forward the financial risk control strategy for the listed companies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F406.7;F426.61

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