本文關鍵詞：我國經(jīng)濟波動對鋼鐵存貨投資影響分析　出處：《復旦大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 存貨投資 經(jīng)濟波動 順周期 產(chǎn)品價格 資金成本

【摘要】：鋼鐵行業(yè)作為基礎原材料工業(yè),它的健康運行對穩(wěn)定我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展關系重大。近年來,存貨投資對我國鋼鐵行業(yè)及上下游的供求關系影響日益增大。通過研究鋼鐵存貨投資的外來沖擊,可以采取相應措施穩(wěn)定市場預期,減緩存貨投資的波動,使鋼鐵價格能更好地反映產(chǎn)品的供求關系,上下游企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營能得到更好的安排,決策部門能更準確地把握鋼鐵行業(yè)的發(fā)展前景,具有較強的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。本文從經(jīng)濟波動的角度研究其對鋼鐵存貨投資的影響,一定程度上補充了國內(nèi)關于存貨投資外來沖擊的研究。本文首先介紹了經(jīng)濟波動與存貨投資關系的研究現(xiàn)狀,并引出本文所要解決的主要問題。其次,通過分析我國經(jīng)濟波動特征、鋼鐵行業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及鋼鐵存貨投資特征,得出經(jīng)濟波動對存貨投資的影響機制。最后,進一步分析影響我國鋼鐵存貨投資的經(jīng)濟因素,并進行實證檢驗。本文主要結(jié)論為：(1)我國鋼鐵行業(yè)整體的存貨投資總體呈現(xiàn)出“順周期”特征。(2)經(jīng)濟波動對銷售部門存貨投資的影響程度更高,而對鋼廠存貨投資的影響程度相對較低。(3)除經(jīng)濟增速外,產(chǎn)品價格和資金成本也會對銷售部門的存貨投資造成較大的沖擊。本文的主要新意在于：(1)使用月度存貨數(shù)據(jù)進行分析。以往研究通常使用年度和季度數(shù)據(jù),容易忽略一些重要信息。(2)以往研究主要集中于生產(chǎn)部門的存貨投資,本文將銷售部門的存貨投資加入分析框架。(3)除經(jīng)濟增速外,本文還從產(chǎn)品價格及資金成本兩方面對引起鋼鐵行業(yè)存貨波動的外來沖擊進行了實證分析。
[Abstract]:As the basic raw material industry, the healthy operation of iron and steel industry is of great importance to stabilize the economic development of our country in recent years. Inventory investment has an increasing impact on the supply and demand relationship of steel industry and upstream and downstream in China. By studying the external impact of steel inventory investment, we can take corresponding measures to stabilize market expectations and slow down the fluctuation of inventory investment. The price of iron and steel can better reflect the relationship between supply and demand of products, the production and management of upstream and downstream enterprises can be better arranged, and the decision-making departments can grasp the development prospects of steel industry more accurately. It has strong theoretical and practical significance. This paper studies its influence on steel inventory investment from the angle of economic fluctuation. To some extent, it complements the domestic research on the inward impact of inventory investment. Firstly, this paper introduces the current research situation of the relationship between economic volatility and inventory investment, and leads to the main problems to be solved in this paper. Secondly. By analyzing the characteristics of China's economic fluctuation, the present situation of iron and steel industry development and the characteristics of iron and steel inventory investment, the influence mechanism of economic fluctuation on inventory investment is obtained. Further analysis of the impact of China's iron and steel inventory investment economic factors. The main conclusion of this paper is: 1) the overall inventory investment of China's iron and steel industry shows a "pro-cyclical" feature. 2) the impact of economic fluctuations on inventory investment in sales departments is higher. In addition to economic growth, the impact on inventory investment in steel plants is relatively low. The price of products and the cost of capital will also have a great impact on inventory investment in the sales department. Use monthly inventory data for analysis. Previous studies have typically used annual and quarterly data. It is easy to ignore some important information. 2) the previous research mainly focuses on inventory investment in production department. This paper adds inventory investment in sales department to the analytical framework. 3) except for economic growth rate. This paper also makes an empirical analysis on the external shocks which cause the stock fluctuation in the steel industry from the two aspects of product price and capital cost.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.31;F124.8

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本文編號：1381001