本文關(guān)鍵詞：匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)廣東省制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響　出處：《華南理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 人民幣匯率 廣東省制造業(yè) 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu) 傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制 OLS模型

【摘要】：匯率政策是國(guó)家宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)中重要的調(diào)節(jié)方式。改革開放以來，我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)屢屢出現(xiàn)內(nèi)、外部均衡的沖突，而且不斷引發(fā)涉及匯率制度的爭(zhēng)議。在人民幣匯率處于振蕩上升階段，社會(huì)資源結(jié)構(gòu)面臨巨大壓力的背景下，深入研究匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響對(duì)我國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)、外均衡發(fā)展具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。近年來人民幣的大幅升值已經(jīng)對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展帶來嚴(yán)重沖擊，這些沖擊將直接影響廣東省制造業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)。在此背景下，研究人民幣升值對(duì)廣東省制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的影響，不但能夠?qū)⑷嗣駧派涤绊懼圃鞓I(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的機(jī)理清晰化，還能為政府進(jìn)一步發(fā)展、調(diào)整制造業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)提供政策建議。 本文先闡述國(guó)內(nèi)外專家學(xué)者對(duì)匯率變化與制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)之間的關(guān)系、所進(jìn)行的研究以及得出的觀點(diǎn)，并對(duì)以上觀點(diǎn)進(jìn)行概括總結(jié)，闡述了名義匯率、實(shí)際匯率、制造業(yè)等相關(guān)概念，同時(shí)，介紹了匯率變動(dòng)影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的相關(guān)理論，包括總需求理論、資本代替勞動(dòng)效應(yīng)、馬歇爾-勒納條件等，然后以這些理論為分析依據(jù)，研究人民幣升值影響制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的機(jī)理，，規(guī)范地闡述人民幣升值如何影響廣東省制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)。 其次，以廣東省制造業(yè)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。對(duì)人民幣升值影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)，并運(yùn)用OLS等方法進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，研究人民幣升值對(duì)廣東省制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)影響的顯著程度。 最后，通過理論分析加實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)，得出結(jié)論:一、人民幣有效匯率上升會(huì)使廣東制造業(yè)中的低技術(shù)制造業(yè)占比上升。二、人民幣升值對(duì)不同的制造業(yè)部門有不同的影響:有利于勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The exchange rate policy is an important way of regulating the macro economy. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy appears repeatedly in the conflict, external balance, and continue to lead to the exchange rate system of RMB exchange rate is controversial. In the rising phase of the oscillation, the structure of social resources is facing tremendous pressure in the background, in-depth study of the impact of exchange rate movements on the manufacturing industry the structure of China's economic, it has important theoretical and practical significance of balanced development. Substantial appreciation of the renminbi in recent years has been the development of our country economy brought a serious impact, the industrial structure of these shocks will directly affect the manufacturing industry in Guangdong province. In this context, research on the impact of RMB appreciation on manufacturing industry structure adjustment Guangdong Province, not only to the mechanism of the impact of RMB appreciation manufacturing industrial structure clarity, but also for the government to further development, adjustment of manufacturing The industry structure provides policy recommendations.
This article first elaborated the domestic and foreign experts and scholars on the relationship between the change of exchange rate and industrial structure of manufacturing industry, the results of the study and the viewpoint, and the point of view of the above summary, elaborated the nominal exchange rate, real exchange rate, manufacturing and other related concepts, at the same time, the exchange rate changes affect the industrial structure theory, including the theory of aggregate demand, instead of labor capital effect, the Marshall Lerner condition, and then takes these theories as the analysis basis, research on the impact of RMB appreciation mechanism of manufacturing industrial structure, specification on RMB appreciation how to affect the industrial structure of manufacturing industry in Guangdong province.
Secondly, the manufacturing sector in Guangdong province relevant data for empirical analysis. The stationary test of the impact of RMB appreciation of industrial structure, cointegration test, Granger causality test, and makes an empirical analysis by using the OLS method, the appreciation of RMB significantly impact the industrial structure of Guangdong province.
Finally, through theoretical analysis and empirical tests, the paper concluded that: first, increase the effective exchange rate of RMB will make the manufacturing industry in Guangdong and low technology manufacturing industry accounted for the rise. Two, RMB appreciation has different effect on different manufacturing sectors: conducive to the development of labor-intensive industries.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F427

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