本文關鍵詞：基于技術系數矩陣的災害影響評估及政策啟示，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

基于技術系數矩陣的災害影響評估及政策啟示

Policy revelations and impact assessment of disasters based on technical coefficients matrix

[1] [2] [3] [4]

WU Xian - hua, NIE Guo - xin2, GUO Ji3, CHEN Yun - feng （1. Institute of Manufacturing Development of China, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanji

[1]南京信息工程大學中國制造業(yè)發(fā)展研究院,江蘇南京210044; [2]華北電力大學環(huán)境科學與工程學院,河北保定071003; [3]南京信息工程大學經濟管理學院,江蘇南京210044; [4]中國氣象出版社,北京100081

文章摘要：近年來，自然災害頻發(fā)，促使人們更加關注災害造成的社會經濟損失。以往的研究多采用傳統(tǒng)的技術經濟方法評估災害對某一產業(yè)或某一地區(qū)帶來的直接損失，對評估災害綜合損失（包含間接損失）的研究較少。在列昂捷夫技術系數矩陣的基礎上，借鑒了Haimes、Santos等人的方法，，充分考慮產業(yè)經濟系統(tǒng)各子系統(tǒng)之間存在的技術經濟關聯性，提出了災害影響的綜合評估模型。以我國2008年度的氣象災害為例，分別計算了靜、動態(tài)情形下的災害綜合影響值，篩選了對災害較為敏感的產業(yè)，提出了相應的政策建議，如根據災害的關聯影響構建新的災后捐贈機制，災后應加快受損方的設備、工藝和技術等的更新速度，借助技術進步減少災害的綜合損失等。

Abstr：In recent years, severe disasters occurred frequently, which prompts people to pay more attention to the losses of industrial economy system caused by disasters. Previous studies were mostly limited to assessing the direct losses of a particular industry or a re- gion caused by disasters so that there are less studies on comprehensive losses of disaster damage （ including indirect losses）. Based on Wassily Leontief＇ s technical coefficients matrix, this paper takes full account of the intrinsic relevance between the various subsystems in the industrial economy system and expands the thoughts of Haimes and Santos from the point of decreased industry output due to dis- asters, finally it proposed static and dynamic input - output integrated assessment models. Take the case of the meteorological disasters in china in 2008 to validate this model as followings. First, calculate the final output losses of all industries and overall industrial econ- omy system in the static and danymic cases. Second, sift and select those industries which are more sensitive to disasters. Finally, the policy revelations were given. Such as constructe the new donation mechanism and rely on the technology progress to reduce the com- prehensive loss of disaster.

文章關鍵詞：

Keyword：:technical coefficients matrix disasters Industrial economy system policy Revelations

課題項目：國家自然科學基金資助項目（71140014）;國家社科基金資助項目（11CGLl00）;國家軟科學研究計劃（201IGXQ48025）

  本文關鍵詞：基于技術系數矩陣的災害影響評估及政策啟示，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。