【摘要】：風(fēng)電作為可再生能源,由于其資源豐富、技術(shù)成熟、商業(yè)化成本較低并具大規(guī)模開(kāi)發(fā)潛力,得到了政策支持,成為我國(guó)新能源產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的重要內(nèi)容,特別是隨著2006年《可再生能源法》在我國(guó)的正式實(shí)施,風(fēng)電建設(shè)進(jìn)入了快速發(fā)展階段。目前,我國(guó)風(fēng)電裝機(jī)容量已居世界第一,并初步形成了由研發(fā)設(shè)計(jì)、原材料供應(yīng)、風(fēng)電零部件制造、風(fēng)電整機(jī)制造、風(fēng)電場(chǎng)開(kāi)發(fā)建設(shè)及運(yùn)營(yíng)、風(fēng)電電網(wǎng)接入以及相關(guān)服務(wù)行業(yè)所組成的風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈。風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈?zhǔn)苷�、法�?guī)、市場(chǎng)、技術(shù)、電價(jià)、電網(wǎng)設(shè)施等諸多因素的影響,其內(nèi)外環(huán)境不確定性高、動(dòng)態(tài)變化快、互動(dòng)關(guān)系復(fù)雜,給其穩(wěn)定發(fā)展帶來(lái)諸多問(wèn)題,也對(duì)其柔性提出了更高的要求。在復(fù)雜動(dòng)態(tài)環(huán)境下,風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)要實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)成長(zhǎng),必須提高自身的靈活性和適應(yīng)能力,及時(shí)有效地應(yīng)對(duì)內(nèi)外環(huán)境的變化。因此,本文探究了風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈柔性和其面臨的環(huán)境動(dòng)蕩性問(wèn)題,建立風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈柔性和環(huán)境動(dòng)蕩性測(cè)度指標(biāo)體系；引入耦合度與耦合協(xié)調(diào)度的概念,構(gòu)建風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈柔性與環(huán)境動(dòng)蕩性匹配模型,提出基于功效函數(shù)的匹配度測(cè)度方法以及風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈柔性與環(huán)境動(dòng)蕩性耦合度和耦合協(xié)調(diào)度劃分標(biāo)準(zhǔn)及狀態(tài)分析表；通過(guò)實(shí)證分析,對(duì)提出的匹配模型進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,并針對(duì)所得的匹配結(jié)果,判斷和定位我國(guó)風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈柔性與環(huán)境動(dòng)蕩性的匹配水平；最后分析產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈柔性尚存的不足之處,并提出增強(qiáng)我國(guó)風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈柔性的發(fā)展建議。本論文為風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈柔性與環(huán)境動(dòng)蕩性匹配研究這一新問(wèn)題提供了新的評(píng)價(jià)方法和分析工具,也為風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的可持續(xù)成長(zhǎng)及產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的優(yōu)化升級(jí)提供了新的理論視角。
[Abstract]:Wind power as a renewable energy, because of its rich resources, mature technology, low commercial cost and large-scale development potential, has been supported by policy, and has become an important part of the development strategy of China's new energy industry. Especially, with the implementation of Renewable Energy Law in China in 2006, wind power construction has entered a rapid development stage. At present, the installed capacity of wind power in China has ranked first in the world, and it has been initially formed by R & D design, supply of raw materials, manufacturing of wind power components, manufacture of wind turbines, development, construction and operation of wind farms. Wind power grid access and related services industry composed of wind power industry chain. The wind power industry chain is influenced by many factors such as policy, regulation, market, technology, electricity price, power grid facilities and so on. Its internal and external environment uncertainty is high, dynamic change is fast, interaction relation is complex, which brings many problems to its stable development. It also puts forward higher requirements for its flexibility. In the complex and dynamic environment, in order to achieve sustainable growth of wind power industry, it is necessary to improve its flexibility and adaptability, and to deal with the changes of internal and external environment in a timely and effective manner. Therefore, this paper explores the flexibility of wind power industry chain and its environmental volatility, and establishes the measurement index system of wind power industry chain flexibility and environmental volatility. By introducing the concepts of coupling degree and coupling coordination degree, a matching model of wind power industry chain flexibility and environmental volatility is constructed. The matching degree measure method based on efficacy function, coupling degree and coupling coordination degree standard and state analysis table of wind power industry chain flexibility and environmental turbulence are proposed. Through empirical analysis, the proposed matching model is verified, and according to the matching results, the matching level of flexibility and environmental volatility of wind power industry chain in China is judged and positioned. Finally, the shortcomings of the flexibility of the industrial chain are analyzed, and some suggestions to enhance the flexibility of the wind power industry chain in China are put forward. This paper provides a new evaluation method and analysis tool for the matching of wind power industry chain flexibility and environmental volatility, and also provides a new theoretical perspective for the sustainable growth of wind power industry chain and the optimization and upgrading of wind power industry chain.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61

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本文編號(hào)：2456576